10月30日，美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三警告称，今年的联邦政府"关门"已经给美国经济造成了至 少180亿美元的损失，而且这一数字在未来几周内"将会进一步变大"。 这个无党派组织强调，大部分影响将是暂时的，明年第一季度经济增长预计将得到短期提振。不过，他 们估计国内生产总值（GDP）受到的冲击中有70亿至140亿美元将无法恢复，而这取决于政府关门的最 终持续时间。 截至周三，部分政府停摆已进入第29天，仍看不到结束的迹象。参议院共和党人呼吁民主党人支持一项 临时拨款法案，为联邦机构提供资金至11月21日；而民主党人则要求就延长即将到期的联邦税收抵免进 行谈判，以帮助美国人通过《平价医疗法案》购买私人医疗保险。 据央视新闻报道，美国参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默28日表示，美国联邦政府"停摆"可能会持续至11 月，届时数百万人将面临《平价医疗法案》税收抵免到期带来的高昂医疗保险费用。数十万联邦工作人 员被迫休假，其他人则无薪工作，联邦食品援助也即将结束。 CBO周三发布的报告显示，由于政府停摆，美国第四季度GDP已经至少下降了一个百分点。而一旦停 摆进入第六周（大约在11月中旬），第四季度实际GDP增长将比正常 ...

不过CBO补充表示，大部分影响将是暂时的，并可能在明年第一季度带来短暂的增长提振。 报告预计，一旦停摆进入第六周（大约在11月中旬），第四季度实际GDP增长将比正常水平低1.5个百 分点，相当于280亿美元的经济产出损失。 如果停工持续八周，大约在感恩节假期前后，实际GDP受到的冲击将扩大到两个百分点，即390亿美 元。 根据CBO的分析，美国政府停摆通过多个渠道拖累了整体经济活动。包括： 此外CBO警告称，目前约有65万名联邦雇员处于无薪休假状态。如果这些员工全部被视为临时失业， 将可能推动10月份的失业率攀升0.4个百分点，这将是自疫情爆发以来最大的单月失业率增幅。 美国政府停摆对经济造成的损害正在显现并加剧。 周三，根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的最新评估，今年的政府停摆已导致美国经济损失至少180亿 美元，其中预计有70亿至140亿美元将无法挽回，具体数额取决于停摆的最终持续时间。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国联邦工作人员提供 ...

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with the Senate failing to pass a temporary funding bill for the tenth time, leading to significant socio-economic repercussions affecting nearly one million families and key industries [1][8] - The estimated economic loss due to the shutdown is approximately $15 billion per week, with severe impacts on various sectors, particularly transportation and housing [4][9] - The ongoing political deadlock between the two parties in Washington is deepening, with both sides unwilling to compromise, raising concerns that this could become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1][8] Group 2: Federal Employees' Struggles - Approximately 700,000 to 750,000 federal employees have been furloughed, while hundreds of thousands of essential workers are forced to work without pay, leading to financial strain and uncertainty for many families [2][3] - Many federal employees are seeking side jobs to compensate for lost income, with some taking on multiple gigs to make ends meet during the shutdown [3][4] Group 3: Sector-Specific Consequences - The transportation sector is experiencing chaos due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, resulting in significant flight delays and cancellations, with over 8,200 flights affected on a single day [4][6] - The real estate market is facing uncertainty as federal programs, including the National Flood Insurance Program and various mortgage approval processes, are stalled, potentially delaying or halting home transactions [6][7] - Public services, including museums and cultural institutions, are closed, impacting local economies and tourism, with some businesses reporting a drop in revenue of over 50% [6][7] Group 4: Broader Economic Implications - The shutdown is expected to have a cascading effect on the economy, with potential long-term damage to consumer confidence and spending, which could exacerbate the economic downturn [9][10] - Predictions indicate that if the shutdown continues, consumer spending losses could reach $30 billion, and unemployment rates may rise from 4.3% to 4.8% [9][10]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached 16 days, potentially becoming the second-longest in history if it continues beyond 17 days [4][6] - The ongoing shutdown is causing significant economic repercussions, including delays in key economic data releases and a negative impact on the U.S. economy [13][15] - Political tensions between the Republican and Democratic parties are escalating, with accusations and blame being exchanged regarding the shutdown [7][11] Economic Impact - The shutdown has led to the freezing or cancellation of funding for over 200 projects across the U.S., totaling nearly $28 billion, primarily affecting Democratic-led states and projects [11][12] - The U.S. Labor Department has postponed the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, which could hinder decision-making by the Federal Reserve [13][15] - The ongoing shutdown is estimated to cost the U.S. economy approximately $15 billion per day, raising concerns about long-term economic damage [15][17] Political Dynamics - Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer criticized Republicans for the shutdown, attributing it to their refusal to negotiate [2] - Senate Republican leader John Thune expressed frustration over the Democrats' inaction, emphasizing the financial strain on American workers [3] - The Department of Homeland Security has attempted to shift blame to Democrats for the shutdown, although some airports have refused to broadcast this message due to political content regulations [7][9]

Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is causing significant economic damage, with estimates suggesting a daily loss of approximately $15 billion to the U.S. economy [2][3] - The tourism sector is among the first to suffer, with losses reaching $1 billion in the first week alone due to longer wait times and flight delays [3] - The shutdown is disrupting key economic data collection, which affects the Federal Reserve's decision-making capabilities [4] Employment and Consumer Spending - If the shutdown continues for a month, it could lead to an additional 43,000 job losses and a reduction of $30 billion in consumer spending [5] - The number of potential layoffs due to the shutdown could exceed 10,000, although a temporary injunction has been issued to prevent immediate layoffs [6] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector is facing severe uncertainty as government loans and subsidies are delayed, impacting farmers' operations [7] - The number of farm bankruptcies has risen to the highest level since 2021, exacerbated by the postponement of a planned agricultural subsidy program [7] Low-Income Groups - Low-income groups are particularly affected by the shutdown, with calls for state-level interventions to maintain essential programs like WIC [7]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has officially shut down due to the Senate's rejection of bipartisan funding bills, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and halting various government services [1][3] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has instructed government agencies to implement their "orderly shutdown" plans, with certain departments like the military and law enforcement remaining operational [1][3][2] Government Shutdown Impact - Approximately 800,000 federal employees will face unpaid leave, and contractors will not receive timely payments, leading to closures or reduced hours for museums, national parks, and other public services [6] - The Department of State and immigration services will slow down operations, affecting the processing times for passports, green cards, and visas [6] - Low-income families will be hit hard, with food assistance programs and housing aid potentially delayed, increasing financial pressure on local governments [6] Economic Consequences - The government shutdown could result in an estimated economic loss of about $7 billion per week, with delayed federal employee salaries impacting consumer spending and increasing market volatility [7] - If the shutdown persists and intertwines with issues like the debt ceiling and fiscal deficits, it may lead to higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government [7] Capital Market Effects - The imminent government shutdown is expected to delay the release of non-farm payroll data, which could postpone the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans [9] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will halt data collection, affecting the publication of key economic indicators [9] - Investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold and silver, driving prices to record highs amid uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy [9]

Group 1 - The core issue of the U.S. government shutdown is the inability to pass a new budget, which is necessary for government operations to continue after the fiscal year ends on September 30 [4][5][6] - The U.S. Congress, composed of both Republican and Democratic parties, is responsible for budget approval, leading to conflicts and delays in passing necessary funding [7][8] - Historical data shows that since 1980, there have been 22 instances of government shutdowns, with the longest being 35 days in 2018 [9] Group 2 - A government shutdown does not mean complete chaos; essential services like Social Security and Medicare continue, while non-essential services may be suspended [11][12][13] - The current budget impasse is primarily due to disagreements over healthcare spending, with Democrats wanting to extend tax credits under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans seek a short-term funding extension without additional provisions [16][17][18] - The uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown could negatively impact the stock market, while potentially providing support for gold prices due to increased risk perception [20][21] Group 3 - The long-term trends of the stock market are expected to remain unaffected by the government shutdown, as they are driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the fundamentals of technology stocks [22]

Core Points - The Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned Thailand's legal actions against Cambodian leaders, stating it violates Cambodia's sovereignty and damages Cambodia-Thailand relations [1] - Thailand's acting Prime Minister announced intentions to file civil and criminal lawsuits against Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and former Prime Minister Hun Sen for military actions leading to casualties and property damage [1] - The potential lawsuits could result in arrest warrants for Cambodian leaders if they enter Thailand, with discussions of pursuing charges in the International Criminal Court [1] Economic Impact - The ongoing border conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand have led to significant economic risks, particularly affecting tourism, displaced populations, and remittance flows [3] - Following the border closure, Cambodia has banned imports of Thai fruits, vegetables, and energy, while the tourism sector has been severely impacted, with a 92.3% year-on-year drop in Thai tourist ticket sales to Angkor Wat in July [3] - The border trade has seen a substantial decline, with Thailand losing approximately $83.6 million and Cambodia about $15.8 million in June, leading to a downward revision of trade growth forecasts for 2025 from 3% to 2% [4]