Core Viewpoint - Severe flooding caused by heavy rainfall has impacted large areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the United States, particularly affecting New York City and northern New Jersey [1] Group 1: Impact on Regions - New Jersey has declared a state of emergency due to flash floods and heavy rainfall [1] - Significant flooding was reported in Union County, New Jersey, affecting most areas and prompting the deployment of water rescue equipment [1] - Flooding in New York State led to the closure of major roads, including the Taconic State Parkway and Spring Brook Park Avenue [1] Group 2: Emergency Response - New Jersey Governor Philip Murphy announced the emergency status in response to the severe weather conditions [1] - Local authorities are actively responding to the flooding situation, with no reports of fatalities at this time [1]

Core Viewpoint - A severe thunderstorm impacted the Savoie region of France and northwest Italy, leading to the temporary suspension of train services between Paris and Milan due to heavy rainfall [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The storm caused significant flooding in the Charmax River, with water levels exceeding riverbanks, particularly affecting the towns of Modane and Fourneaux, where water depth reached 50 centimeters [1] - The Savoie government reported that this flooding event is the most severe in 70 years for the Charmax River [1] Group 2: Local Response - Schools in Fourneaux were inundated and will be temporarily closed starting July 1 [1]

Group 1 - In May, various natural disasters in China caused direct economic losses of 8.44 billion yuan [1] - A total of 9.978 million people were affected by different degrees of disasters, with 55 reported dead or missing [1] - The average precipitation nationwide was 77.6 mm, which is 10.4% more than the same period in previous years [1] Group 2 - Floods and geological disasters affected 1.616 million people, resulting in 42 deaths or missing persons, and direct economic losses of 2.69 billion yuan [2] - Drought conditions were alleviated in southern regions, but eastern areas of the northwest still faced drought, affecting 6.265 million people with direct economic losses of 2.56 billion yuan [2] - Severe convective weather caused 1.982 million people to be affected, with 7 fatalities and direct economic losses of 3.16 billion yuan [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the analysis of natural disaster situations in China for May 2025, highlighting the impact of various disasters including floods, geological hazards, droughts, and severe weather events [1] Summary by Categories Natural Disaster Overview - In May, natural disasters affected approximately 9.978 million people, resulting in 55 deaths or missing persons, and causing direct economic losses of 8.44 billion yuan [1] Floods and Geological Hazards - Southern China experienced frequent heavy rainfall, with an average precipitation of 77.6 mm, 10.4% above the historical average. Significant flooding and geological disasters occurred in regions like Guizhou and Guangxi, leading to 1.616 million affected individuals and direct economic losses of 2.69 billion yuan [1][2] Drought Conditions - Drought conditions in southern regions were alleviated due to rainfall, while parts of northern China, particularly in Gansu and Ningxia, continued to experience drought. Approximately 6.265 million people were affected by drought, with direct economic losses of 2.56 billion yuan [2] Severe Weather Events - Six strong convective weather events occurred, primarily affecting regions like Jiangxi and Hunan, resulting in 1.982 million affected individuals and direct economic losses of 3.16 billion yuan. Additionally, four sandstorm events were reported, impacting over 10,000 people [3] Cold Weather and Snow Disasters - Cold weather and snow disasters affected areas in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau, leading to 104,000 affected individuals and direct economic losses of nearly 31 million yuan. Notably, three fatalities were reported due to avalanches in Tibet [4] Forest and Grassland Fires - The overall fire risk was stable, with 22 forest fires reported, primarily in Shanxi and Shaanxi. No grassland fires were recorded during this period [5] Earthquake Activity - Earthquake activity was relatively calm, with only four earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or above recorded, significantly lower than the historical average of 11.4 per month. The largest earthquake was a 5.5 magnitude event in Tibet, which did not result in significant damage [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with spot gold prices around $3355 per ounce, indicating underlying tensions despite a seemingly calm surface [1] - Strong performance in the U.S. job market is counterbalancing global trade tensions, while the OECD's latest warnings introduce new variables into the market [1] - Upcoming key data releases, particularly the ADP employment data and the non-farm payroll report, are expected to provide insights into Federal Reserve policy direction, which will influence gold market investment logic [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is anticipated to enter a period of volatility, with short-term resistance at $3380 and support at $3345, indicating a potential range-bound trading environment [3] - The 30-minute moving average is showing signs of a downward trend, suggesting a possible adjustment if a bearish crossover occurs [3] - The trading strategy recommends focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key levels to watch being $3380-$3390 for resistance and $3345-$3335 for support [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have slightly declined due to a more balanced supply-demand scenario and concerns over the global economic outlook, with Brent crude at $65.58 per barrel and WTI at $63.32 per barrel [4] - Recent price drops follow a two-week high, influenced by factors such as wildfires in Canada disrupting oil production and geopolitical tensions affecting supply [4] - The oil market is currently influenced by competing forces, including geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases, leading to a potential high-level consolidation until clearer policy directions emerge [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term trend for oil prices is downward, with a potential test of the $50 mark after forming a bearish flag pattern [5] - Short-term movements are characterized by fluctuations around the moving average system, indicating a likely upward trend in the near term [5] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $64.5-$65.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.5 [5]

5月14日，桥水基金创始人达利欧发表题为《交易的艺术及其背后的驱动力》（The Art of the Deals and the Forces Behind Them）的文章，基于近期美国和中国、沙特达成了贸易协议，从全球宏观的视角剖析 了当前国际秩序剧变的深层逻辑。 达利欧认为，有五大根本性力量（债务货币化、国内阶层撕裂、国际权力重构、自然灾害加剧、技术爆 炸）正在推动世界步入临界点，并探讨各国（尤其美国）应对策略的得失与潜在风险。 文章总结称，根据众多客观指标，现有的货币、国内政治和国际地缘政治秩序正在恶化和衰落，与此同 时，自然灾害的威胁日益加剧，科技进步日新月异。 以下为文章亮点： 以下为全文编译： 中美第一阶段协议的迅速达成展现了理性务实的态度（为后续谈判带来合理乐观预期），唐 纳德·特朗普及其团队正在沙特阿拉伯开展中东之行寻求投资合作（我对其成功充满信心， 其他合理贸易协议预计也将接踵而至），不久后还将与国会就预算案展开角力（对此我持更 谨慎态度）。与此同时，伊朗协议和俄乌协议正在酝酿中，预计将取得一定进展。本文旨在 通过全球宏观投资者的视角——特别是基于对近期中国与沙特协议的近距离观察——阐述应 ...

3月下旬以来，华南、长江中下游以及华北等地气象干旱阶段性发展。清明之后气温回升，大风天气 多，土壤失墒快，加之春耕春播农作物需水量明显增长，广西、云南、贵州、四川、陕西、河南、山 西、内蒙古等地旱情灾情快速凸显，其中广西灾情相对较重。4月份，干旱灾害造成全国461.4万人次不 同程度受灾，累计因旱需生活救助49.2万人，农作物受灾面积407.7千公顷，草场受旱面积1737.4千公 顷，因旱饮水困难牲畜52.7万头(只)，直接经济损失15.4亿元。 4月份，全国平均降水量38.9毫米，较常年同期偏少10.9%。全国主要江河径流总量较常年同期偏少四 成，水位总体偏低。 4月份，全国共发生森林火灾40起，主要集中在陕西、山西、河南等地。 (责任编辑：张紫祎) 记者12日从中国应急管理部获悉，4月份，中国各种自然灾害造成直接经济损失37.8亿元(人民币，下 同)。 近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室会同有关成员单位，对2025年4月全国自然灾害情况进行了会商 分析。4月份，各种自然灾害共造成610.6万人次不同程度受灾，死亡13人，紧急转移安置8200余人次， 倒塌房屋200余间，损坏房屋3.84万间，农作物受灾面积 ...

央视网消息：据应急管理部消息，近日，国家防灾减灾救灾委员会办公室会同有关成员单位，对 2025年4月全国自然灾害情况进行了会商分析。4月份，我国自然灾害以风雹灾害、干旱灾害为主，洪涝 灾害、低温冷冻和雪灾、沙尘暴灾害、地质灾害、生物灾害、森林火灾、地震灾害等也有不同程度发 生。各种自然灾害共造成610.6万人次不同程度受灾，死亡13人，紧急转移安置8200余人次，倒塌房屋 200余间，损坏房屋3.84万间，农作物受灾面积584.1千公顷，直接经济损失37.8亿元。 4月份全国自然灾害主要特点有： 一、风雹灾害影响我国大部地区，灾害损失偏重 4月份，风雹灾害在全国大部地区多点散发，其中，11-13日，中东部地区出现极端大风，多地阵风风力 破历史极值，南方出现大范围强对流天气，短时强降水、雷暴大风和冰雹齐发，灾害范围和破坏力为近 年较强，造成河北、河南、江西、湖北、湖南等23省（区、市）55.6万人不同程度受灾，死亡5人，倒 塌损坏房屋2万余间，部分基础设施损毁、农作物倒伏，直接经济损失10.8亿元。4月份，风雹灾害造成 全国119.9万人次不同程度受灾，死亡12人，倒塌房屋100余间，损坏房屋3.35万间，农作 ...