交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

2025年11月24日 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油弱势运行 | 8 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 10 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡偏弱，下方空间收窄 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 22 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 22 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：下跌趋势重现，短期或强于低硫 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：弱势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差转而收缩 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 | 27 | | 短纤：短期 ...

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：短期调整不改慢牛趋势 据证券时报，近期股市回调，大量资金借道 ETF 越跌越买、逆市加仓。近一周以 来（11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日），全市场股票型 ETF 获得超 700 亿元资金净流 入，仅 11 月 21 日便有超 400 亿元资金借道 ETF"抄底"。多家基金公司认为， 美联储降息预期下降、AI 泡沫担忧升温等外部因素是近期市场回调的主因，不 过，在国内科技产业和"反内卷"政策的支持下，中国资产"慢牛"仍然可期。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数反弹，上一交易日股指大幅回落，有色金属和电力设备 板块领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 20 日融资余额减少 59.39 亿元至 24743.85 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板 块是长期方向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、 事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、小盘 股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明 朗前，大盘价值仍可能阶段性占优。临近年底，资 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment data shows significant divergence, and the performance of NVIDIA's AI business has restored market risk appetite. The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed serious differences, and the change of the October non - farm report schedule has led to a lack of key data for the December interest - rate decision. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but the policy remains firm, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - The spot pressure of the container shipping European line continues, and the futures price fluctuates lower. The market is currently mixed with long and short factors, and the short - term volatility may intensify. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term trend is unclear [14][15][17]. - For copper, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [86000, 87000] [18][20][21]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [22]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate narrowly, and the nickel - stainless steel market should be wary of callbacks in the unilateral downward range and pay attention to option opportunities [22][24][25]. - Tin is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - The risk of a decline in lithium carbonate prices still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. It is expected to show a "wide - range shock and weak" operating characteristic in the range of 83000 - 93000 yuan/ton in the next two weeks [27]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to maintain an oscillating and weak pattern in the short term [27][28][29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate, and there is support below [30]. - For steel products, the overall finished products are supported by raw material costs below, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range, with rebar in the range of 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3100 - 3400 [31][32]. - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and the market sentiment to improve before considering shorting at high prices [33][34]. - For coking coal and coke, the support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. - The crude oil market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term [38][39][40]. - The valuation of LPG is being repaired, and attention should be paid to the profit of PDH and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - For PTA - PX, the speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds [46][47][48]. - The upward height of methanol 01 is limited. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions and consider 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [48][49]. - The downward space of PP is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern [50][52][53]. - PE is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern, and a selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - The bottom space of asphalt is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - rubber fell after reaching the upper limit of the range, and attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic policies remain firm. Overseas, the US employment data is divided, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is inconsistent. The market is concerned about the November employment data and the appointment of the Fed chairman. The RMB exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom, with the center slowly declining" [1][2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The dovish remarks of Fed officials have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may support the stock index in the short term. However, due to the tense Sino - Japanese relations and the lack of policy news, the stock index is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term long positions should be held. Although there are some negative factors, the impact on the bond market is mainly short - term sentiment, and the substantial negative impact is limited [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The spot index has weakened again, and the shipping companies' price - holding efforts have not been effective. The market is mixed with long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the precious metals are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. The long - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average [14][15][17]. - **Copper**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the fundamentals of each link [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The reduction of TC in November has increased the willingness of smelters to cut production, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to exports and the macro situation [22][23][24]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They are in a unilateral downward range, and attention should be paid to callbacks and option opportunities. The cost of nickel - iron has collapsed, and the downstream demand for stainless steel is weak [24][25]. - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The supply of concentrates is tight, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of a decline still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the downstream demand may decline seasonally [27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to follow the price fluctuations of related varieties and maintain an oscillating and weak pattern [27][28][29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and there is support below. The raw materials for smelting are tight, and the cost of recycled lead provides support [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate in the range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit suppressed by inventory. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The price continues to oscillate widely. The decline of coking coal price may support the iron ore price. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before shorting at high prices [33][34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand. The production is expected to decline, and de - stocking may depend on production cuts [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro and geopolitical factors [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand for PDH is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the profit and the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: The speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the short term [46][47][48]. - **Methanol**: The upward height of 01 is limited. The port pressure is increasing, and the inland is de - stocking. It is recommended to hold short - call positions and consider reverse spreads [48][49]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand growth is slowing down [50][52][53]. - **PE**: It is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, especially with the end of the agricultural film peak season. A selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply has decreased, and the demand is gradually weakening [60][61]. - **Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: They fell after reaching the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61].

文字早评 2025/11/24 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美国政府据称正考虑允许英伟达对华出售 H200 芯片； 2、国资委组织召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并举行重点项目签约仪式； 3、长鑫存储发布 DDR5 新品，最高速率达 8000Mbps，最高颗粒容量 24Gb，并同步推出覆盖服务器、工 作站及个人电脑全领域的七大模组产品； 4、高盛合伙人：美股出现多头缴械迹象 企稳前抛售将继续。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.62%/-0.57%/-1.26%/-2.32%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.84%/-0.70%/-3.11%/-6.16%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.88%/-0.70%/-3.75%/-6.98%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.50%/-0.32%/-0.58%/-0.77%。 行情方面：周五，TL 主力合约收于 115.570 ，环比变化-0.26%；T 主力合约收于 108.430 ，环比变 化-0.05%；TF 主力合约收于 105.855 ，环比变化-0.08%；TS 主力合约收于 102.460 ，环比变化 0.00% ...

橡胶：如何看待贸易行为 20251123 摘要 2025 年橡胶加工利润受挤压，原料价格高企但下游需求疲软，导致泰 国加工厂加价购入原料，小型民营企业因现金流和融资成本问题难以维 持库存。 轮胎厂受欧盟反补贴、反倾销政策影响，利润减少，但头部企业仍有盈 利，下半年采购节奏加快，天然胶库存较低，逢低补库。 海外市场需求疲软，九月底至国庆期间出现短暂补库，目前正谈判 2026 年长约，数量和价格预计与 2025 年相近。 泰国原料价格受供需影响维持高位，新增产线增加需求，供应端无显著 增加，预计 2026 年难以大幅改善。 2025 年正套套利盘消失，反套套利盘规模较大，叠加泰国胶厂卖货， 压制美金计价产品价格，四季度进口量预计减少，累库现象减弱。 美国关税影响显著，全钢轮胎下游利润大幅下降，预计 2026 年全钢和 半钢行业都将面临挑战。 原料价格上涨但下游无力承接，汇率走弱侵蚀利润，加工厂可能减产甚 至停产，目前产能利用率在六到七成以上。 Q&A 海外市场对橡胶需求及补库情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）海外市场需求一直较弱，尤其受关税影响显著。九月底至国 庆节期间出现了一波补库行为，当时 EUDI 执行在即， ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-24 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 甲醇 2025/11/24 甲醇 【行情资讯】 太仓价格维稳，鲁南-5，内蒙+5，盘面 01 合约-12 元，报 2004 元/吨，基差-4。1-5 价差+3， 报-134。 【策略观点】 甲醇盘面延续弱势下跌，目前港口高库存压力仍未见明显缓解，且在 01 合约之前仍难有效去 化，高库存压力持续压制价格以及月间结构。目前从基本面来看，国内产量进一步提升，企业 利润持续走低，到港有所回落，供应 ...

首席点评： 短期调整不改慢牛趋势 据证券时报，近期股市回调，大量资金借道 ETF 越跌越买、逆市加仓。近一周以来（ 11 月 17 日至 11 月 21 日），全市场 股票型 ETF 获得超 700 亿元资金净流入，仅 11 月 21 日便有超 400 亿元资金借道 ETF "抄底"。多家基金公司认为，美联储 降息预期下降、 AI 泡沫担忧升温等外部因素是近期市场回调的主因，不过，在国内科技产业和"反内卷"政策的支持下，中 国资产"慢牛"仍然可期。 重点品种：股指、原油、双焦 股指：美国三大指数反弹，上一交易日股指大幅回落，有色金属和电力设备板块领跌，市场成交额 1.98 万亿元。资金 方面， 11 月 20 日融资余额减少 59.39 亿元至 24743.85 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方 向。 11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科 技业绩落地、小盘股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性信号进一步明朗前，大盘价值仍可能 阶段性占优。临近年底，资金相对谨慎，市场风格相较三季度也更为均衡。我们认为在经济 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（183） 优于大市 生猪行业反内卷有序推进，看好海内外牧业大周期反转 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。11 月 21 日生猪价格 11.67 元/ 公斤，周环比-0.4%；15kg 仔猪价格约 318 元/头，周环比+0.5%。 原奶：Q4 奶牛去化有望加速，原奶价格年底或迎拐点。11 月 13 日，国内主 产区原奶均价为 3.02 元/kg，周度环比维持，同比-3.2%。 豆粕：短期到港供给宽松，中长期供需支撑走强。11 月 21 日，国内大豆现 货价为4015 元/吨，周环比+0.08%，豆粕现货价为3070 元/吨，周环比-0.90%。 玉米：国内供需平衡趋于收紧，价格有望维持温和上涨。11 月 21 日国内玉 米现货价 2227 元/吨，周环比+0.72%。 橡胶：短期价格预计趋稳，中期看好景气向上。11 月 21 日，天然橡胶现货 价为 14800 元/吨，周环比+0.0%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。11 月 21 日，鸡苗价格 3.48 元/ 羽，周 ...

橡胶震荡偏强 橡胶周报 2025/11/22 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 交易所库存偏低和泰国降雨量动态 ◆ 2025年10月18日周报提示泰国降雨量预报大幅度增加的利多，中美会谈预期向好，EUDR利好，叠加股市上涨，胶价显著上涨近800元。 ◆ 按照2025年10月24日周报的风险提示，胶价上涨驱动边际减少。胶价出现震荡回调。 ◆ 按照2025年11月1日周报， 2025年11月5-7日的早报提示胶价回调短多机会。 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 20251121 台风影响降雨量预报边际走弱。供应利多减少。 近期行情重点关注 泰国降雨量预报边际走弱 ◆ 未来泰国仍然处于雨季，供应容易受影响。 ◆ 2025年9月25日，抛储6.2万吨。由于抛储的性质是换储，抛多 ...