期货开户入口 2017 + 价差及量能说明 2026年1月8日 自揭 TNK TV 42 在日 6 81 43 n PVC THAT int e k 1 2 ttp:// 好形 世长 10 童仓变化统计 市场力力 从业资格证号:F3020809 投资咨询资格:Z0013442 研究员 田猛 本产品数据与信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性 不做任何保证。我们力求内容客观、公正、观点及内容仅供参考,不构成所 述品种的买卖出价。任何表示过去或历史业绩的信息均不代表未来的业绩, 交易者据此作出的任何投资决策及交易行为与本公司无关。交易者应综合考 虑自身风险承受能力,依据自己的独立思考做出投资决策,自行承担投资决 策风险和交易结果。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 风险揭示:期市有风险 入市需谨慎。本文观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 热点品种 2026年1月8日 价差及量能说明 2026年1月8日 自揭 TNK TV 42 在日 6 81 43 n PVC THAT int e k 1 2 ttp:// 好形 世长 10 童仓变化统计 市场力力 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on market dynamics, fundamental data, and industry news [2][4]. - Overall, most futures are expected to show short - term fluctuations, with some facing supply - demand pressures and others influenced by cost, inventory, and macro - factors [10][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: Crude oil prices declined due to the expected increase in Venezuelan production. PX physical market showed limited improvement, and polyester sales were mixed [6][8][10]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation with weakened industrial aspects. PTA is in a high - level oscillation with cost weakness. MEG has limited upside and remains under medium - term pressure [10][11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures showed changes in price, volume, and open interest. Spot prices of some rubber types increased, and Thai raw material prices rose [12][13][14]. - **Trend**: Rubber is expected to oscillate, supported by rising raw material costs and improved production orders [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of synthetic rubber changed. Spot prices of related products increased, and butadiene prices rose [15]. - **Trend**: Synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, driven by improved spot trading and cost - push from butadiene [16][17]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of LLDPE changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE shows a weak - stable basis. Supply - demand pressure may arise from high capacity and weakening demand [18][19]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PP changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [21]. - **Trend**: PP is boosted by macro - sentiment, but fundamental improvement is limited due to weak demand and high cost [21][22]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of caustic soda are provided, with a negative basis [24]. - **Trend**: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of pulp changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [30]. - **Trend**: Pulp is expected to oscillate, with cost support and weak demand in a state of game [31][32]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of glass changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest increased [34]. - **Trend**: Glass prices are stable, with limited sales improvement during the holiday [34]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of methanol changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [37]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to oscillate and decline, with coastal ports accumulating inventory and weakening basis [39]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of urea changed. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [42]. - **Trend**: Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a potential mid - term upward shift in the center, supported by agricultural demand expectations [43][44]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and profit margins of styrene changed. Spot prices and inventory levels are provided [45]. - **Trend**: Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with high valuation and potential short - selling opportunities [46]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of soda ash changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [51]. - **Trend**: The spot market of soda ash has little change, with high supply and weak demand [51]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of LPG and propylene changed. Spot prices and spreads are provided [56]. - **Trend**: LPG has a firm import cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. Propylene demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising [55][56]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PVC changed [64]. - **Trend**: PVC's short - term rebound is difficult to sustain due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, but potential supply - side improvements may occur in the future [64][65]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [68]. - **Trend**: Fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation with support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced fluctuations, and the high - low sulfur spread in the spot market continues to narrow [68]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) changed [70]. - **Trend**: The freight rate peak has emerged. It is advisable to wait and see for the 02 contract and short at high prices for the 04 contract [70][79][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of short - fiber and bottle chip changed. Sales rates are provided [84]. - **Trend**: Both short - fiber and bottle chip are expected to oscillate in the short - term [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices, cost - profit data, and futures prices of offset printing paper are provided [87]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable spot prices and poor market demand [88][90]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of pure benzene changed. Inventory levels are provided [91]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increasing port inventory [92].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 | | 周三，上期所燃料油主力合约 FU2603 收跌 1.38%，报 2437 元/ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 吨；低硫燃料油主力合约 LU2603 收跌 2.29%，报 2860 元/吨。供 | | | | 应端，新加坡预计在未来几周将迎来稳定的低硫燃料油套利船货 | | | | 及调油组分的到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存。新加坡低硫燃 | | | | 料油市场预计在 2026 年 1-2 月都将保持供应充足。新加坡高硫 | | | | 船货到港量也将继续增加。预计 1 月新加坡燃料油整体供应过剩。 | | | 燃料油 | 需求端，受假期影响含硫 0.5%船用燃料油的加注需求清淡；而受 | 震荡 | | | 安装脱硫塔的船舶数量增加的推动，高硫船用油加注需求维持强 | | | | 势，高硫市场预计在 1 月将继续获得船燃和炼化需求方面的支撑， | | | | 而低硫燃料油市场需求预计仍难有较大起色。整体来看，高、低 | | | | 硫燃料油市场因供应充足预计继续承压，未来一个月 FU 和 LU | | | | 绝对价格或仍以跟随油价 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 橡胶： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 周三油价重心继续回落，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.14美元至55.99美元/桶，跌幅2.00%。布伦特3月合 约收盘下跌0.74美元至59.96美元/桶，跌幅1.22%。SC2602以415.5元/桶收盘，下跌9.3元/桶，跌幅为 2.19%。美国已达成一项进口价值最高20亿美元委内瑞拉原油的协议，此举预计将增加全球最大石油消 费国的原油供应量，受此消息影响，国际油价于周三下跌。美国与委内瑞拉政府达成的这项协议，初期 或要求原本运往中国的原油船货改变航线。自去年12月中旬以来，因特朗普政府实施出口封锁，委内瑞 拉数百万桶已装载至油轮及储存在油罐中的原油一直无法运出。当前来看，从委内瑞拉原油的量及运输 流向上来看，矛盾在于量未来只增不减，而贸易流向则是西升东降，国内需要关注的是折价油种的替 代，以及能源的溢出效应，传导到电力端。海上航运当前也面临冲击，美国欧洲司令部在社交媒体上发 布消息称，在北大西洋扣押了一艘俄罗斯油轮。随后，美国南方司令部也在社交媒 ...

原油回归过剩逻辑驱动， 化工品后续仍是分化对待。 行情综述： 油：美对委袭击对原油影响有限，委内瑞拉早已沦为原油边缘生 产国，约 1%的产量占比与 50-80 万桶/日的日均出口对全球原油供给 影响不大，并且委内瑞拉也没有 6 月以伊冲突中霍尔木兹海峡作为全 球原油关键航道的地理条件。美对委袭击事件落地后市场对加勒比地 缘担忧的靴子落地，或回归一季度过剩压力带来的下行驱动。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油 2602 小时图 图 1.1：原油日线图 （二）沥青： 逻辑：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响，目前委 内瑞拉原油出口瘫痪后作为主要国内沥青原料占比超 4 成的委内瑞 拉马瑞重油面临实质断供，若委原油出口迟迟未恢复国内炼厂后续面 临减产停工，原料替代（加拿大重油、中东重油）涉及时间滞后与成 本上移，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向上 驱动。 化工：美国袭击委内瑞拉后国内沥青原料受实质性影响出现重大 逻辑影响，沥青盘面面临原料断供下供应端减少与成本提升的双重向 上驱动。沥青可作为当下的重点多头品种。而前期龙头品种 PX-PTA 在下游终端接受度较低带来短期负反 ...

近年来，越来越多的中国跨境卖家收到来自美国的神秘警告信——要求立即整改产品标签或面临高额罚款！这一切的背后，正是被称为"全球最严苛消费 品安全法规"之一的加州65号提案（Proposition 65,简称CA65）。 加州65法案全称《1986年饮用水安全与毒性物质强制执行法》，由加州选民公投通过，核心目标是保护加州居民和饮用水资源免受已知致癌、致生殖毒性 化学物质的危害。 与普通认证不同，加州65没有统一的"合格证书"，其核心要求是： ⚠️ 重点：即使产品本身符合联邦标准（如CPSC、FDA），只要销往加州且含清单内物质，仍需遵守加州65！目前全美约15%的消费品诉讼集中在加州65 领域，跨境卖家因"不知情"中招的案例占比超60%。 加州65提案的适用范围极其广泛，几乎涵盖了所有可能被消费者接触的产品16，包括但不限于： 加州 65 测试主要聚焦于可接触金属及非金属材料，涵盖了众多可能对人体健康构成危害的化学物质，特别是那些已知或疑似会引发癌症、出生缺陷或其 他生殖伤害的物质。常见的测试项目如下： 1、重金属类： 甲醛：常用于制造胶粘剂、涂料等产品。尤其是针对玩具类产品中直接接触皮肤的纺织品和皮革等，会对甲 ...

| 日度美容 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 股指进一步放量上涨,收日内最高点,预计延续偏强走势。拉长 | 周期来看,2026年股指有望在2025年基础上继续上行:宏观政策 | | | 持续发力、通胀温和回升或有助于改善企业盈利预期;资本市场 | 改革政策的引导有望为A股带来增量资金;同时中央汇金发挥"类 | 宏观金融。必 | 平准基金"作用,也将对市场形成支撑。策略上看,建议投资者 | | | | | 仍以择机布局多头仓位为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 震荡 | 国 债 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | | 近期矿端供应扰动升温,叠加宏观情绪好转,铜价进一步走高。 | 원미 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库,产业驱动有限,但宏观情绪向好,叠 | 加铝锭供应趋紧预期提前发酵,铝价有望维持偏强运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝供应端仍有较大释放空间,产业面偏弱施压价格,但当前 | 价格基本处于成本线附近,预计价格震荡运行。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心再度回落，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘下跌 1.19 美元至 | | | | 57.13 美元/桶，跌幅 2.04%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.06 美元 | | | | 至 60.70 美元/桶，跌幅 1.72%。SC2602 以 426.1 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 1.2 元/桶，跌幅为 0.28%。库存数据方面，API 数据显示，上周， | | | | 美国 API 原油库存减少 276.6 万桶，之前一周为增加 174.7 万桶。 | | | | API 库欣原油库存增加 66.5 万桶，前值为增加 84.5 桶。成品油汽 | | | | 油库存增加 441 万桶，前值为增加 624.8 万桶、馏分油库存增加 | | | | 492.6 万桶，前值为增加 97.7 万桶。消息称美国与委内瑞拉正在 | | | 原油 | 商讨将委内瑞拉的原油出口至美国一事。1 月 7 日美国总统特朗 | 震荡 | | | 普 ...

摘 要： Z0001784 从业资格号： F0255552 橡胶供需均较为平淡 11111111111111111 宁证期货投资咨询中心 橡胶供应：2026年开割面积增速为-0.08%——0.06%，而且老龄化深化。产 量方面：全球产量的不确定性在于泰国产量（南部减产和中北部增产对冲，初 步预估026年泰国橡胶产量预计波动有限，增减空间均不大）。其他方面，印尼、 马来西亚减产预期较强；越南整体承压，甚至回落；我国产量微增；科特迪瓦 维持增产趋势，但增速放缓。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775号 橡胶需求：2026年，政策向下，出口与新能源、智能化向上。部分地方逐 步暂停地方以旧换新补贴额度，或透支对2026年购车需求。但2026年仍然不乏 亮点，汽车出口尤其是新能源汽车出口仍将呈现高速增长态势，展现了我国新 能源汽车工业的较强竞争力。轮胎出口市场，2026年或微弱增长。替换市场压 力偏大。 师秀明 投资咨询证号： 策略：供需均较为平淡。2026年产量变化依然微妙，不确定点在于泰国产 量，初步预计偏平稳。2026年车市政策弱于2025年，但得益于我国汽车工业的 竞争力增强，预计汽车出口市场仍良好 ...