[Table_Page] 深度分析|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 大宗农产品之八：若原油价格上涨，如何影响农产品价格？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 产品种植成本传导至价格。氮肥国际主流生产工艺以天然气为核心原 料，与原油价格联动紧密；钾肥价格长期锚定原油价格，磷肥生产所需 的硫酸、磷酸等原料，依赖原油衍生的化工产品。化学农药生产的原料 为苯、甲醇、乙烯等石化中间体，此类中间体均为原油的下游衍生品。 传导规律二：原油替代品涨跌，影响作为原材料的农产品价格。原油 价格影响燃料乙醇价格，从而主要影响美国玉米与巴西甘蔗的工业需 求；原油价格影响生物柴油价格，从而影响油脂商品的工业需求。 2025/26 年度美国用于制乙醇的玉米消费量占总体 40%以上。汽油价 格→乙醇价格→玉米制乙醇需求。巴西燃料乙醇产业以甘蔗制乙醇为 主，原油价格→乙醇价格→巴西甘蔗制乙醇比例→巴西甘蔗制糖比例 →巴西糖供应。原油走强带动石化柴油价格抬升，打开生物柴油盈利与 需求空间，从而影响原料需求与价格（大豆油、棕榈油、废弃油脂）。 传导规律三：原油价格影响天然橡胶的替代品价格。原油价格通过其 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ghana aims to shift from exporting raw agricultural products to developing local processing capabilities, particularly in the cashew industry, to retain more economic value domestically [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Ghanaian government plans to invest $200 million to support the development of the tree crop industry, focusing on processing infrastructure, capacity enhancement, and encouraging private sector participation [1] - Specific measures include strengthening agricultural technology promotion services, improving quality seed supply, expanding cooperative farming programs, enhancing product traceability systems, and promoting exports to high-value international markets [1] Group 2: Economic Goals - The Tree Crop Development Authority aims to achieve annual revenues of $12 billion from six key crops (cashew, oil palm, shea, coconut, rubber, and mango) by 2030, while creating up to 500,000 jobs [1] - The initiative will particularly focus on creating job opportunities for youth and empowering women in the shea industry [1] Group 3: Agricultural Development Plans - Plans include establishing plantations covering a total area of 16,000 hectares across 16 regions in Ghana, with a focus on cultivating crops suitable for each region's ecological conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil shows a divergence between geopolitics and fundamentals, with short - term logic focused on the Iran issue. The short - term geopolitical sentiment drives up crude oil prices. The short - term trend of the crude oil market depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - For the chemical industry, most oil - chemical products follow the cost - driven rise of crude oil. It is recommended to use a long - short hedging strategy, going long on products with strong fundamentals (such as PX, PTA, EB) and short on those with weak fundamentals (PP, EG, plastics). For soda ash and PVC, which have a low correlation with oil, a short - selling strategy can be adopted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Crude Oil - Logic: The short - term logic is centered on the Iran issue. Geopolitical sentiment pushes up prices, but the probability of a US strike on Iran before the end of February is low. The short - term trend depends on the resolution of the Iran issue, and it is advisable to wait for a cooling - off period to look for short - selling opportunities [2][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 471. It is recommended to wait and hold small - position 04P440 options if available [4]. (2) Styrene - Logic: Domestic production is increasing under high profits, and supply may return more than expected. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. Exports are expected to increase, providing support on the demand side [6][9]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 7700. It is recommended to wait and observe [9]. (3) Pure Benzene - Logic: Port inventory is high, domestic production is recovering rapidly, and downstream production is performing well. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy of going long on EB and short on BZ [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 6295. It is recommended to wait and observe, and set a stop - loss at 6295 if entered the market the day before [12]. (4) Rubber - Logic: In the short term, there is no significant supply - demand contradiction. Due to the seasonal factors and the cost - driven increase from crude oil, natural rubber shows a passive upward trend. However, the medium - term upward logic is not strong, and it is recommended to hold a short - term long position or a long - matching position, but a medium - term short position [14][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 16250. It is recommended to wait and observe [16]. (5) Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The profit of downstream tires is poor, and the fundamental pressure is increasing. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the geopolitical sentiment on butadiene, showing a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics [17][20]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen close to a short - term low. The short - term pressure is at 13220. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 13350 [20]. (6) PX - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The intraday trading is within the 7050 - 7500 range. It is recommended to wait and observe [24]. (7) PTA - Logic: The fundamentals changed little during the holiday. Supply is stable, and downstream demand is weak before the Lantern Festival. It is affected by the cost - driven increase from the Iran issue [25]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term support at 5160. It is recommended to wait and observe [25]. (8) PP - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [28]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with reduced positions. The short - term pressure is at 6730 - 6770. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6770 [28]. (9) Methanol - Logic: It shows a divergence between fundamentals and geopolitics. The restart of Iranian methanol plants in spring may bring high import pressure, but the geopolitical sentiment during the holiday adds uncertainty. The upward space depends on the resolution of the Iran issue [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term downward structure is being tested. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 2270. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 2265 [32]. (10) Ethylene Glycol - Logic: Supply is at a high level, downstream production has decreased, and inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The high - inventory and high - premium pressure of the 05 contract is difficult to change, and the price is more likely to fall [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 3780 - 3800. It is recommended to wait and observe, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 3800 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Downstream terminals have not fully recovered. There is high supply pressure, and the cost - driven factor from crude oil is the short - term trading focus. Once the geopolitical situation cools down, it will face real - world pressure [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 6830 - 6860. It is recommended to wait and observe if not entered the market, and hold half of the position if entered the day before, with a stop - loss at 6860 [36]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: It is in a situation of oversupply. New production capacity has been released during the Spring Festival, and demand is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [38]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trading is volatile, with short - term pressure at 1180 - 1190. It is recommended to hold short positions and set a take - profit at 1190 [38]. (13) PVC - Logic: It has a low correlation with oil and is in a situation of oversupply. Inventory has increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the real - estate market is weak. The 05 contract is likely to see a downward correction of the premium [40]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price has fallen with increased positions. The short - term pressure is at 5010. It is recommended to hold short positions, take half - profit actively, and set a stop - loss at 5010 for the remaining half [40].

商务大数据显示，2月16日至22日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周(环比，下同)下降0.2%。 有色金属价格继续下降，其中铜、铝、锌分别下降1.1%、0.3%和0.1%。 橡胶价格略有下降，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别下降0.3%和0.2%。 煤炭价格基本持平，其中动力煤、炼焦煤每吨777元和1043元，均与前一周持平，无烟块煤每吨1133 元，下降0.1%。 基础化学原料价格基本持平，其中硫酸、纯碱、聚丙烯均与前一周持平，甲醇下降0.2%。 成品油批发价格稳中略涨，其中95号汽油、0号柴油均与前一周持平，92号汽油上涨0.2%。 化肥价格略有上涨，其中尿素上涨0.3%，三元复合肥与前一周持平。 钢材价格稳中有降，其中普通中板、焊接钢管每吨3620元和3708元，均与前一周基本持平，热轧带钢、 螺纹钢每吨3499元和3342元，均下降0.1%。 ...

食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤5.60元，上涨1.3%，其中芹菜、莴笋、大白菜分别上涨 5.7%、5.0%和4.1%。6种水果平均批发价格小幅上涨，其中柑橘、梨、葡萄分别上涨1.0%、1.0%和 0.7%。水产品批发价格小幅上涨，其中大带鱼、鲢鱼、鲤鱼分别上涨1.2%、0.7%和0.3%。肉类批发价 格略有上涨，其中猪肉每公斤18.98元，上涨0.5%，羊肉、牛肉分别上涨0.3%和0.1%。粮油批发价格总 体平稳，其中豆油、菜籽油均上涨0.1%，花生油、大米均与前一周持平，面粉下降0.2%。禽产品批发 价格稳中有降，其中白条鸡与前一周基本持平，鸡蛋下降0.6%。 生产资料市场：有色金属价格继续下降，其中铜、铝、锌分别下降1.1%、0.3%和0.1%。橡胶价格略有 下降，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别下降0.3%和0.2%。钢材价格稳中有降，其中普通中板、焊接钢管 每吨3620元和3708元，均与前一周基本持平，热轧带钢、螺纹钢每吨3499元和3342元，均下降0.1%。 煤炭价格基本持平，其中动力煤、炼焦煤每吨777元和1043元，均与前一周持平，无烟块煤每吨1133 元，下降0.1%。基础化学原料 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价呈现较大振幅，其中 WTI 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.21 美元至 | | | | 65.21 美元/桶，跌幅 0.32%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.1 美元至 | | | | 70.75 美元/桶，跌幅 0.14%。主力合约 SC2604 以 489.8 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.6 元/桶，涨幅 0.74%。当地时间 2 月 26 日，据伊朗方面消 | | | | 息，当天在瑞士日内瓦与美国举行的间接谈判中，伊朗表示拒绝 | | | | 向国外转移其浓缩铀。据悉，伊朗在谈判中坚持保留和平利用核 | | | | 技术的权利以及生产核燃料的能力，并要求美国解除对伊朗的制 | | | 原油 | 裁。美国与伊朗在日内瓦结束第三轮核谈判，距离特朗普设定的 | 震荡 | | | 达成协议最后期限仅剩数日。调解方阿曼称美国和伊朗的日内瓦 | | | | 会谈取得进展，下周将继续技术面磋商。美国官员称美伊核谈判 | | | ...

金融期货早评 宏观：伊美间接谈判结束，斡旋方称谈判"取得重大进展" 【市场资讯】1）商务部回应近期将举行的第六轮中美经贸磋商。2）伊美间接谈判结束。 伊朗外长称谈判取得良好进展，双方存在分歧，但在某些领域已接近达成共识。双方将在 3 月 2 日举行技术谈判。3）美国上周初请失业金人数为 21.2 万人，预期 21.5 万人，前值 从 20.6 万人修正为 20.8 万人。4）韩国央行维持基准利率在 2.5%不变，理由是经济增长势 头强于预期，强调在房地产市场波动和本币走弱的情况下保持金融稳定。5）日本央行行长 植田和男表示，央行将在 3 月和 4 月的会议上仔细研究数据，以决定是否加息，这为近期 加息留下了可能性。若日本在实现经济和物价预测方面取得进展，央行将继续升息。 【南华观点】当前全球市场缺乏全市场共识的强驱动主线，主要由五大宏观叙事驱动，其 中三大短周期叙事进入冷却观察期，两大长周期叙事持续但无增量。美国最高法院裁定特 朗普 IEEPA 关税非法但短期影响有限，特朗普已通过 122 条款新征 10%关税补位，整体税 率边际变动极小，贸易保护主义的长期不确定性仍未消除。AI 长周期方面，核心逻辑未变， ...

2026 年 02 月 27 日 橡胶：宽幅震荡 20260227 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17.125 | 17.240 | -115 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 17, 080 | 17, 315 | -235 | | | | 成交量(手) | 269, 900 | 272, 777 | -2,877 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 172, 951 | 175.091 | -2, 140 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 114. 070 | 112. 570 | +1, 500 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 24, 124 | 22. 664 | +1. 460 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -175 | -190 | +15 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -1, 225 | -1, 240 | +15 | | ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 短期区间交易，关注 98000-106000 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议逢低适度持多 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 低位震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 逢高做空 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 逢低多配不追高 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ...

| & ZU = HX | | 入 深 家 X | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币混 | 日期 | 美金泰标 规层 | 美金泰混 现景 | 合胶 | 上海全乳 | 上海3L | 泰国胶水 | 泰国杯胶 | | 云南胶水 海南胶水 | 顺丁橡胶 | RU主力 | NR主力 | | | 2026/02/1 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 62.0 | 2 | 1965 | 1975 | 15420 | 15950 | 16600 | | 55.0 | 14200 | 15700 | 12700 | 16450 | 13370 | | 2514 | 2026/02/1 | Onroe bol | | | | OURCE POINT | | | | SCE POINT | | | | | 15330 | న | 1955 | 1965 | | 15815 | 16550 | 62.3 | 55.0 | ...