Core Thesis - FTAI Aviation Ltd. is positioned as a specialized industrial compounder in the aerospace aftermarket, trading at a reasonable valuation despite its unique market position [2] Business Model - The company operates a vertically integrated aircraft maintenance, repair, and exchange (MRE) platform with two main segments: Aerospace Products and Leasing [2] - The Aerospace Products segment benefits from ownership of over 600 engines and strategic cost advantages, focusing on the maintenance market for CFM56 and V2500 engines [2] Competitive Advantages - FTAI has an exclusive partnership with Chromalloy, allowing it to receive FAA-approved PMA hot-section parts at cost, saving up to $2 million per shop visit [3] - The company currently enjoys margins near 35%, with potential expansion to 50% as more PMA parts are approved, indicating exceptional economic prospects [3] Growth Potential - FTAI's MRE model is capital-efficient and scalable, targeting 750 module exchanges in 2025 and $600 million in segment EBITDA, with long-term potential exceeding $1 million EBITDA per visit [4] - The Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI) enables asset-light expansion, supporting recurring MRE demand and fee income [4] Financial Health - The company maintains modest leverage at 2.2x and is backed by CEO Joseph Adams, who has a significant personal stake in the company [5] - Despite a short report questioning accounting practices, multiple banks and an internal audit found the claims unfounded, supporting the company's financial integrity [5] Market Outlook - FTAI is expected to achieve 20–30% revenue growth, with expanding margins and an EV/EBITDA of 16x, indicating a potential upside of 16–97% [5] - The long-term growth levers remain intact, with updated financials and margin expansion potential highlighted by recent analyses [6]

Core Thesis - Sonoco Products Company is viewed positively due to its strategic transformation into a streamlined "New Sonoco," which is expected to report its first full year of results in 2026, focusing on cash-rich operations with modest cyclicality [2][4] Business Segments - The company operates three core business units, with the consumer segment accounting for approximately two-thirds of 2026 revenue, producing metal food cans, aerosol cans, and rigid paper containers, including high-growth products like Pringles cans [2] - The industrial segment generates the remaining revenue, producing paper cores, protective packaging, and uncoated recycled boxboard, though it is more exposed to cyclical swings in commodity costs and demand [3] Competitive Position - Sonoco has leveraged scale advantages in metal packaging, benefiting from cost savings through bulk steel procurement, and maintains a leading global position in rigid paper containers with limited competition, enhancing pricing power and customer loyalty [3] Financial Outlook - The company currently has elevated leverage due to transformative acquisitions, but plans to reduce debt to the low 3x range by 2026 through the sale of ThermoSafe and strong free cash flow generation [4] - Trading at 8.4x 2026 free cash flow, Sonoco is at historical and sector lows, with potential upside to approximately 12x FCF if execution and organic growth exceed expectations [4] Catalysts for Growth - Key catalysts for Sonoco's growth include clearer financial reporting, investor adaptation to the new business mix, and an upcoming Capital Markets Day that will provide further visibility on long-term strategic objectives [4]

Core Thesis - JD.com, Inc. is viewed positively due to its strong fundamentals, low valuation, and strategic growth opportunities, despite recent operating losses from heavy investments in food delivery [1][4][6] Company Overview - JD.com, Inc. is the largest technology-driven e-commerce retailer in China, headquartered in Beijing, and is part of the NASDAQ-100 and Fortune Global 500 [2] - The company's mission focuses on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency through advanced technology and a robust supply chain [2] Business Segments - JD Retail operates a direct-sales online platform covering various product categories, ensuring quality control and inventory management [2] - JD Logistics offers an efficient network of warehouses and delivery personnel across China, generating external service revenue and maintaining high profitability [3] - The company has expanded into high-growth areas such as JD Health and industrial supply chain solutions, and is entering the competitive food delivery market [3] Financial Performance - JD.com has faced recent operating losses due to increased SG&A expenses from food delivery investments, but these are expected to decline [4] - The company is trading at historically low valuations, with a P/E ratio of 10.03 and an EV/EBITDA of approximately 7x, indicating potential upside [4][5] - JD maintains a strong balance sheet with $29.85 billion in cash against $14.07 billion in debt, and is executing a $5 billion buyback program with a 2.87% dividend yield [5] Management and Strategy - The management team includes founder Richard Qiangdong Liu and CEO Sandy Ran Xu, who has significant financial expertise [5] - The company is focused on revenue and EBIT growth, with a low volatility (Beta 0.4) and medium-term technical upside projected towards $45 [5] Market Position and Risks - JD.com faces intense competition from Alibaba and Pinduoduo, along with expansion costs and geopolitical/regulatory uncertainties [4] - Despite a ~14% stock depreciation since March 2025, the bullish thesis remains intact due to JD's strong fundamentals and undervaluation [6]

Core Thesis - Paychex, Inc. is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong recurring revenue model, high client retention, and potential for steady dividend returns, particularly appealing to income and long-term growth investors [4]. Company Overview - Paychex, Inc. is a leading provider of payroll, human resources, and benefits outsourcing services to over 740,000 small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. [2] - The company generates revenue primarily through subscription fees and payroll processing charges, creating a highly predictable and recurring revenue base [2]. Financial Performance - Paychex has achieved 5- and 10-year dividend CAGRs above 10%, offering a reliable yield of 3.5% with a payout ratio of 92% [3]. - The company's financial profile supports income-oriented investors, benefiting from float income by temporarily holding client funds, which allows it to capitalize on higher interest rates [3]. Valuation and Market Position - The stock was trading at $124.37 with a trailing P/E of 27.67 and a forward P/E of 22.78, indicating reasonable valuation reflecting stability and modest growth [1][4]. - Paychex's business model is characterized by strong client retention, making relationships "sticky" over the long term, which enhances its resilience through economic cycles [2][3]. Investment Appeal - The combination of defensibility, cash generation, and predictable profitability positions Paychex as an attractive opportunity in the payroll and HR outsourcing space [4]. - The company remains resilient despite a 16.54% stock price depreciation since previous coverage, maintaining strong recurring revenue and high margins [5].

Core Thesis - Brown-Forman Corporation is viewed as a potential investment opportunity due to its historically low valuation and stable fundamentals despite negative market sentiment [1][3][4] Valuation and Market Perception - The company's shares were trading at $27.64 as of September 24th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 15.44 and 16.86 respectively [1] - Over the past decade, Brown-Forman's market perception has shifted from being a high-quality company trading above 30x earnings to a more skeptical view, now trading at roughly 15x earnings [2][3] - The current valuation represents one of the lowest multiples for the company in the past decade, indicating a potential opportunity to invest at an attractive price point [3] Fundamentals and Consumer Behavior - Despite external challenges such as tariffs and changing consumer habits, the company's fundamentals remain stable with a consistent earnings stream and a loyal consumer base [3][4] - The underlying consumption of alcohol is expected to remain steady, supporting the company's cash flows and long-term viability [3] Investment Outlook - For investors willing to overlook short-term pessimism, Brown-Forman presents a chance to invest in a stable, cash-generative company at a historically discounted valuation [4] - Continuous monitoring of operational performance and shifts in market perception is recommended to identify potential upside [4] - Previous analyses highlighted the company's strong brands and resilient net income growth, reinforcing the bullish thesis despite a 23% depreciation in stock value since coverage [5]

Core Thesis - Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its focus on essential, e-commerce-resistant tenants and a stable cash flow model [2][6]. Company Overview - Agree Realty Corporation is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in retail properties leased to essential tenants such as Walmart and CVS, owning over 2,000 properties across the U.S. [2] - The company has transformed from a $300 million microcap to a $7.9 billion market cap REIT, maintaining low leverage and strong tenant relationships [4]. Financial Performance - Over the past three years, Agree has achieved a 20% annual revenue growth and a 7.7% growth in funds from operations (FFO) per share, with the stock trading slightly below prior highs [3]. - The company has a consistent dividend track record, with monthly distributions and a five- and ten-year growth rate around 5.3–5.4%, providing a reliable income stream [5]. Growth Strategy - Agree Realty drives expansion through three key platforms: development of new stores for creditworthy tenants, acquisitions of high-quality existing properties, and a Direct Funding Platform for retail project construction [3]. - The company benefits from high-quality, recession-resistant tenants and geographically diversified property holdings, minimizing operational risk through net leases [5]. Risk Management - While risks such as tenant defaults and interest rate fluctuations exist, Agree's conservative financial policies and data-driven acquisition strategy help mitigate these exposures [6].

Core Thesis - Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is experiencing strong operational resilience and growth potential, supported by record revenue and robust earnings [2][5][6] Financial Performance - Delta reported record revenue of $15.5 billion for the June quarter, a 1% increase year-over-year, driven by a 4% capacity increase [2] - Adjusted EPS was $2.10, slightly above analyst estimates, while GAAP EPS was $3.27, indicating strong margins [2] - Operating margins were solid at 13.2% on a non-GAAP basis, despite challenges from fuel and labor costs [3] Guidance and Projections - The company restored full-year EPS guidance to a range of $5.25–$6.25 and raised free cash flow expectations to $3–$4 billion [3] - For Q3, revenue growth is projected at 0–4% with EPS guidance of $1.25–$1.75, indicating steady operational momentum [3] Market Reaction - Following the strong results, DAL shares climbed 10–12%, making it one of the top performers on the S&P 500 [4] - The stock's breakout above $51 has created near-term trading opportunities, with potential upside toward $60 if trading volume remains supportive [4] Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, pullbacks to $45–$47 offer an attractive free cash flow yield near 8% and a forward dividend yield exceeding 2% [4] - Delta's focus on premium products and operational efficiency supports sustained upside in the stock [5][6]

Core Thesis - Interparfums, Inc. (IPAR) is positioned as a strong player in the prestige perfume and cosmetics market, leveraging its licensing model and global distribution to drive recurring revenue and growth [1][5]. Company Overview - Interparfums, Inc. is a global creator and distributor of prestige perfumes and cosmetics, partnering with leading fashion and lifestyle brands [2]. - The company operates through various channels including department stores, specialty shops, and duty-free outlets, combining product sales and fragrance licensing agreements [2]. Business Model - The licensing portfolio includes long-term agreements with brands such as Montblanc, Coach, Jimmy Choo, and GUESS, providing stable revenue streams [2]. - The distribution networks across wholesale, retail, and travel retail channels enhance global reach and diversify exposure across Europe, the U.S., and emerging markets [3]. Competitive Advantages - Interparfums' scalable operations allow for the application of product development and marketing expertise across multiple brands, reducing reliance on any single partner [3]. - The company's focus on high-end, aspirational products, along with strong partnerships and marketing excellence, differentiates it in the market [3][4]. Financial Performance - As of September 18th, IPAR's share was trading at $104.17, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 20.75 and 18.45 respectively [1]. Strategic Positioning - Interparfums transforms fashion brands into lifestyle experiences, creating emotional connections through scent and delivering affordable luxury to a global audience [4]. - The combination of strategic partnerships, recurring revenue, and global scale positions IPAR as a builder of global brands and a consistent performer in the consumer beauty sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - Pool Corp. is showing signs of a potential turnaround in revenue growth after a challenging period, influenced by favorable market conditions such as decreasing interest rates and high retirement account values [2][4][6]. Company Overview - Pool Corp., established in 1980, has grown to be the largest distributor of pool products in the U.S., generating $5.3 billion in annual revenues [2]. - Historically, about 15% of its revenues come from new pool construction, which has faced challenges recently [2]. Recent Performance - After nine consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, Pool Corp. reported a 0.8% growth in quarterly revenues in Q2 2025, indicating a possible recovery [2][4]. Influencing Factors - The growth of Pool Corp. is affected by new home construction, interest rates, and retirement account values [3]. - New pool construction typically lags behind new home construction by 2 to 3 years, suggesting a delayed impact on Pool Corp.'s revenues [3]. Market Conditions - With interest rates decreasing and the market reaching all-time highs, there is optimism for a new growth phase for Pool Corp. if these conditions lead to increased new pool construction [4][6]. - The recent positive revenue growth, although modest, suggests that the company may be emerging from a difficult period [4]. Investment Sentiment - The stock has appreciated by 7.0% since previous bullish coverage, reflecting confidence in the company's consistency and financial rigor [5]. - Pool Corp. is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 44 hedge fund portfolios holding POOL at the end of Q2, up from 39 in the previous quarter [7].

Core Thesis - Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is viewed positively due to its unique business model and growth potential, with shares trading at $16.71 as of September 17th, and a trailing P/E of 222.12 and forward P/E of 18.15 [1][2] Business Model - GO operates as an extreme-value grocery retailer with 533 stores across 17 states, primarily on the West Coast, utilizing a "treasure hunt" model similar to TJ Maxx, offering branded consumables and fresh items at significant discounts [2] - The inventory is sourced from manufacturer overruns and closeouts, creating a sense of urgency for customers and encouraging repeat visits [2] - Stores are managed by independent operators (IOs), which aligns incentives, reduces corporate overhead, and ensures strong unit economics [2] Operational Challenges and Leadership Changes - Despite having a competitive advantage in supplier relationships and logistics, GO has encountered operational issues, including a failed ERP rollout, high shrinkage rates, and underperformance in new markets [3] - These challenges have led to leadership changes and a strategic shift towards disciplined expansion and system stabilization [3] - Early indicators under new CEO Jason Potter show positive progress, with raised guidance and reduced restructuring costs [3] Growth and Financial Outlook - The company aims to open 30–35 net new stores annually, with expected store-level returns exceeding 20% by year four, potentially reaching 30% as execution improves [4] - GO's normalized free cash flow is projected to be between $140 million and $170 million, with an additional potential of $100 million FCF from 150 new stores, indicating attractive long-term returns [4] - Valuation appears reasonable at a 20x forward P/E and 12–13x FY25 adjusted EBITDA, considering growth opportunities and margin recovery potential [4] Risks and Resilience - Risks include execution challenges, competition from Aldi and Lidl, and difficulties in recruiting independent operators, but improved systems and inventory visibility could lead to significant upside [5] - GO has a history of resilience during economic downturns and potential for capital allocation through buybacks and M&A, presenting a favorable risk/reward scenario [5] - The bullish thesis remains intact, emphasizing leadership changes and ERP stabilization as key factors for future growth [6]