Core Insights - The federal government shutdown has ended, and statistical agencies are working to catch up on missed economic releases [1][4] - Delayed economic reports can complicate decisions for investors, businesses, and policymakers [3] Economic Data Release Schedule - Key reports that have been rescheduled include: - Q3 employment cost index on Dec. 10 (originally Oct. 31) - September U.S. trade deficit and wholesale inventories on Dec. 11 (originally Nov. 4) - November U.S. employment report on Dec. 16 (originally Nov. 7 and Dec. 5; October household survey canceled) - November Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Dec. 18 (originally Nov. 13 and Dec. 10) - Q3 Gross Domestic Product initial estimate on Dec. 23 (originally Oct. 30; subsequent estimate postponed) [5][6] Canceled and Unscheduled Reports - Several reports have been canceled or are yet to be rescheduled, including: - September housing starts and new home sales (originally scheduled for Oct. 17 and Oct. 24) - Advanced reports on trade deficit, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories for September, October, and November [6][7]

Core Insights - The inflation faced by older Americans, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), is often higher than the Social Security annual cost of living adjustment (COLA), leading to a gap that erodes purchasing power [1] - The upcoming COLA increase of 2.8% in January may not keep pace with the rising costs of essentials like groceries, medicine, and housing, which are estimated to increase by about 3.1% [1] - Only 22% of Americans aged 50 and above believe the COLA will be sufficient to cover their living expenses [1] Summary by Sections COLA Calculation Issues - The Social Security COLA is based on the CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W), which does not accurately reflect the spending patterns of retirees [1] - Alternative measures like the CPI-E, which focuses on costs for individuals aged 62 and older, show that essential expenses such as healthcare and housing have been rising faster [1] - Over the past 25 years, the CPI-W has fallen short of the CPI-E in 18 out of 26 years, averaging 0.2% lower annually [1] Financial Impact on Retirees - Retirees who began collecting benefits in 1999 have lost nearly $5,000 in lifetime payments compared to what they would have received under the CPI-E [1] - For those retiring in 2024, the gap is projected to exceed $12,000 over a 25-year retirement [1] - Advocacy groups like AARP and TSCL have been pushing for a change in the inflation measure used for COLA calculations to better reflect the financial pressures faced by older Americans [1] Future Considerations - The 2.8% COLA for 2026 is viewed as insufficient, with a potential 3.1% increase if the CPI-E were used instead [1] - The 0.3% difference may seem minor but compounds over time, further eroding purchasing power in retirement [1] - Any change to the COLA calculation method would require federal legislative action, and failure to do so may worsen the situation for current and future retirees [1]

Core Viewpoint - Caesars Entertainment has faced significant stock decline and investor frustration, attributed to Las Vegas tourism slump and broader economic factors, leading to a more than 40% drop in stock value year-to-date [2][3][10] Financial Performance - The company's third-quarter results were disappointing, contributing to the stock's decline, which has continued post-earnings announcement despite optimistic remarks about future convention bookings [2][3] - Caesars' market capitalization is currently around $4 billion, significantly below the S&P 500's minimum requirement of $20.5 billion for inclusion [4][10] Historical Context - The merger that created "new Caesars" occurred over five years ago, with expectations of improved management and shareholder value, but the stock has lost over two-thirds of its value since then [8][9] - The company has consistently underperformed compared to its competitors and the broader gaming sector over the past five years [6][9] Operational Challenges - Caesars is facing issues related to its master lease agreement with Vici Properties, which includes inflation-linked rent escalators that may not align with the company's profit growth [12][13] - There are indications that Vici may need to lower rents for some Caesars' regional casinos, but this would likely come at a cost to Caesars, further complicating its financial situation [14]

Joining me is KPMG's chief economist Diane Swank and CNBC's Steve Leeman. Steve, let me begin with you. Is this a big departure from what we had seen after the last Fed meeting.>> Um, yeah, and by the way, Contessa, unfortunately, you blinked. And, uh, it's an even bigger departure because those probabilities are now down to 41%. Um, and I get that because it's only just been in a little bit that we've had that move.As you saw, uh, the 10-year yield rise higher. uh to around 414 and now the probabilities ha ...

Core Viewpoint - A growing number of Federal Reserve officials express a preference for holding interest rates steady due to concerns about high inflation, indicating that further rate cuts may not be imminent [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Opinions - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid emphasized that he is more concerned about inflation being "too high" than the current state of the job market, advocating for no rate cuts [1][2]. - Schmid stated that a 25-basis-point reduction in the policy rate may not effectively address labor market stresses, which he attributes to structural changes rather than monetary policy [2]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also indicated a preference for holding rates steady, supporting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's view that another cut in December is not guaranteed [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September recorded an inflation rate of 3%, slightly below expectations but an increase from 2.9% in August [3]. - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also rose to 3% in September, down from 3.1% in the previous month [3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, was estimated by Powell to be 2.8% based on CPI data, which was not released due to the government shutdown [4]. Group 3: Rate Decisions and Concerns - The Fed voted to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting, with Schmid dissenting in favor of holding rates steady [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, while supporting the quarter-point rate cut, expressed concerns about inflation remaining a significant issue that needs to be addressed to reach the 2% target [5][6].

Social Security Adjustment - Social Security's cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 will be 2.8% [2] - The 2.8% increase is slightly above the previous year's 2.5% [2] - The adjustment is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for urban wage earners [3] Impact on Beneficiaries - The 2.8% increase will result in an average increase of $56 per month for the average beneficiary [5] Concerns and Criticisms - Critics argue that the CPI for urban wage earners doesn't accurately reflect the spending habits of retirees, particularly regarding housing, healthcare, and groceries [3][4] - Experts suggest that the current index is outdated and doesn't reflect seniors' actual spending [6] - The Senior Citizens League is actively advocating for a more relevant index [6] Potential Future Changes - There is ongoing discussion about the need to find a more accurate index that reflects the spending patterns of seniors [6]

Inflation Overview - The year-over-year inflation rate increased to 3.0% in September, returning to January levels, with economists initially expecting a rate of 3.1% [1][8] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 3% year-over-year in September, slightly below the expected 3.1% [1] Monthly Changes - Core CPI increased by 0.2% from August to September, falling short of the 0.3% forecast [2] - Overall CPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, below the anticipated 0.4% [2] Impact of Government Shutdown - The Bureau of Labor Statistics delayed the release of the September consumer price index report due to the government shutdown, which is the second-longest in US history [3] - The shutdown has affected the publication of other key economic data, including the jobs report, which remains unscheduled [6][8] Inflation Drivers - The increase in inflation was primarily driven by goods inflation, particularly a 4.1% rise in gas prices month-over-month, significantly higher than the previous 1.9% increase [4] - The food index rose by 3.1% year-over-year, with a 0.2% increase month-over-month, which is less than the previous 0.5% increase [5] Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve is focusing on supporting the labor market, especially as inflation risks are perceived to be transitory and tariff-driven [7] - The Fed's upcoming meeting on October 28 and 29 will discuss rates, relying on private data releases and previous reports due to the lack of official data [6][8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) on investment strategies and market behavior, indicating a potential bullish trend in the stock market [4][9]. Economic Indicators - Headline CPI came in at 0.3%, compared to a consensus of 0.4% - Core CPI was reported at 0.2%, against a consensus of 0.3% [9] Market Trends - Positive money flows were observed in major stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, while Tesla showed negative flows [6] - The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also experienced positive money flows [6] Investment Strategies - The model suggests deploying cash due to favorable CPI data, with a 3% reduction in cash within the protection band [4] - Investors are advised to hold long-term positions while considering tactical trades and hedges based on individual risk preferences [9] Political Context - President Trump is optimistic about trade negotiations with China, particularly regarding soybeans and rare earth minerals, with a meeting scheduled with President Xi [9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to influence market sentiment, with a high probability of rate cuts in October (99%) and December (90%) [9] Market Sentiment - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the market, with expectations of a year-end chase by money managers if the market trends upward [9] - The momo crowd is anticipated to buy ahead of the Fed rate decision, indicating a pattern that may repeat [9] Strategic Considerations - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between cash and investments, suggesting that a protection band of 0% indicates full investment, while 100% suggests a need for aggressive protection [10][11] - Investors are encouraged to think both strategically and tactically, as substantial risks remain, including high inflation and market valuations [9]

Core Insights - Crypto traders are known for making strategic moves ahead of macroeconomic announcements, with recent activity showing a bullish trader taking a long position before the September CPI data release [1][2] - The CPI is a key inflation indicator that influences both traditional and crypto markets, with rising CPI leading traders to favor assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - A bullish crypto trader took a long position on Ethereum and Bitcoin ahead of the CPI data release scheduled for October 24 [2] - The CPI rose by 0.3% in September and 3% year-over-year, indicating inflationary pressures [3] - Excluding food and energy, the CPI increased by 0.2% in the last month, maintaining a 3% year-over-year increase [3] Group 2: Trader Activity - An on-chain analytics platform reported that a crypto whale with a 100% win rate has significantly increased long positions, holding 33,270 ETH valued at $132 million and a leveraged long position on 680 BTC worth $75.8 million [5]

Core Inflation Data - Inflation held steady at 3% in September, slightly below analysts' expectations of 3.1% [2][8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year over year in September, up from 2.9% in August, marking the highest reading since May [2][3] - Month-over-month prices increased by 0.3%, lower than August's 0.4% rise and below economists' expectations [3][4] Energy Prices Impact - Gasoline prices rose by 4.1% in September, contributing to the monthly price increase, but were down 0.5% year over year [3] - The broader energy commodities index decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous year [3] Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 3% year over year in September, down from 3.1% in August [4] - On a monthly basis, core prices increased by 0.2%, easing from a 0.3% gain in August [4] Economic Context - The report was the first major piece of federal economic data released since the ongoing government shutdown, which is now the second-longest in US history [5][6] - RSM chief economist noted the report as a "market positive story," but warned about potential data quality deterioration due to the shutdown [6][7] Future Outlook - The current inflation rate of 3% is expected to potentially accelerate, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [8] - Markets anticipate a quarter-point cut from the Fed at the upcoming policy meeting, despite persistent inflation [8]