Howard Schneider with Reuters. So, um, as you mentioned a minute ago, some margins of the job market would suggest that the slides already happening. Black unemployment rate in August was above 7%.Uh, declining work week, difficulty among co college graduates finding work, high rising youth unemployment. Why do you think a quarter percentage point now is going to arrest that. Well, I I hadn't say that I thought a quarter point would make a huge difference to the economy, but you got to look at the whole pat ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point and anticipates two more cuts within the year [1] - Despite concerns about the economy reflected in consumer sentiment, household finances are reported to be in good shape overall [1] - Consumer spending has slowed but remains resilient, primarily driven by demand from higher-income consumers [2]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points now, with potential for two more cuts by the end of the year, leading to a year-end target for Fed funds at no higher than 3.63% [2][3] - Concerns are raised about the near disappearance of job growth in the US economy, which may necessitate continued rate cuts unless satisfactory job growth resumes [3][10] Consumer Spending and Sentiment - Consumer spending is projected to slow, with expectations of disinflation resuming in early 2026, despite recent reports indicating growth in retail sales for August [4][8] - A significant drop in consumer sentiment was noted, with early September readings from the University of Michigan in the bottom 1.5% of all monthly readings since 1878, indicating increased consumer worry about the future [7][10] Labor Market Dynamics - There is a disconnect between the labor market and consumer sentiment, with consumer spending remaining resilient despite weak job growth readings [10][14] - For consumer spending to remain robust, job growth needs to increase by approximately 100,000 jobs or more per month; otherwise, it may negatively impact consumer spending [14] Holiday Season Expectations - The holiday season is anticipated to be average, with upper-income households likely to perform better, while middle and lower-income households may face spending challenges due to inflation and stagnant income growth [12][13] - The impact of tariffs and price hikes is expected to affect consumer behavior, particularly among households with multiple children who may be more conservative with their holiday spending [12][13]

Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are trading down, cutting back and feeling increasingly strapped, while high earners keep on spending https://t.co/yqyYEM7YLl ...

As Chinese consumers snag 14-cent coffees and 50-cent meals thanks to a fierce price war among food delivery platforms, restaurants and tea chains are counting the cost of vanishing footfalls https://t.co/eDJpH4eOjt ...

Wealthy consumers continue to account for a growing share of US consumer spending https://t.co/7S0Yqobzex ...

Joe, I am gonna put something on the table and you tell me what it is. Go on. All right.Here I go. This is a corrugated, I believe, cardboard box. The idea of the box as a macroeconomic indicator. I do see people talking about this idea of boxes as a leading indicator every once in a while.It is unconventional, but some people do it. How valuable are box shipments or tracking the box industry in terms of trying to figure out what's going on with the consumer. Very important for the consumer.About 50% of box ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Small-cap stocks experienced volatility in Q2 2025, with the Russell 2000 Index rebounding 10% from its November 2024 record highs just 55 days after the "Liberation Day" decline [1] - The Russell 2000 returned 8.5% for the quarter, underperforming the Russell 1000 Index, which returned 11.1% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Oxford Industries, Inc. - Oxford Industries, Inc. (NYSE:OXM) had a one-month return of 0.59% and its shares lost 45.85% of their value over the last 52 weeks, closing at $47.13 per share with a market capitalization of $700.69 million on September 12, 2025 [2] - In Q2 2025, Oxford Industries generated consolidated net sales of $403 million, down from $420 million in Q2 2024 [4] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Stock selection within the consumer discretionary sector for Oxford Industries reversed after a strong Q1 performance due to idiosyncratic headwinds, including increased tariff costs and softening consumer spending [3] - Management is focusing on accelerating its supply chain away from China, with an expected full exit by 2026, and is emphasizing brand innovation and core customer engagement, which leaves optimism for the company's future [3]

Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are trading down, cutting back and feeling increasingly strapped, while high earners keep on spending https://t.co/NI8GKWHAdU ...

Consumer Spending Trends - Consumer sentiment has dropped in September as Americans express concerns about job market risks and tariffs, leading to cautious spending habits [2][12] - There is a bifurcation in consumer spending, with high-income consumers continuing to spend while low-income consumers are under pressure, focusing more on needs than wants [5][6][10] - Retailers catering to value-oriented consumers, such as dollar stores and off-price retailers, are performing well, while discretionary retail is experiencing weakness [8][9] Retail Sector Insights - Retail visits increased in July and August, driven by promotional events like Prime Day and back-to-school sales, but the overall consumer remains promotional-driven and cautious [11][12] - Specialty grocery and fresh format groceries are benefiting from high-end consumer spending, while casual dining is also performing well, particularly for brands like Chili's [10][19] - The retail landscape is characterized by a divide between value-oriented and discretionary retailers, with the former capturing market share [7][9] Restaurant Industry Dynamics - Quick service restaurants (QSR) are facing challenges as lower-income consumers trade down to value grocers and convenience stores due to inflation [16][17] - QSRs are responding with increased promotional activities to attract customers, while casual dining establishments are seeing success by retaining customers and increasing visit frequency [18][19] - The restaurant sector is adapting to consumer preferences, with a focus on value and experience to maintain customer loyalty [20][52] Black Rock Coffee Bar IPO - Black Rock Coffee Bar made its public debut on the NASDAQ with shares opening around $26.50, aiming to expand from 158 locations to about 1,000 by 2035 [38][41] - The company emphasizes a unique model that combines drive-thru convenience with a lobby experience, focusing on customer engagement through baristas [39][40] - Despite rising coffee prices, Black Rock Coffee Bar has managed to keep prices consistent by sourcing beans from multiple countries and adjusting supply chains [44][46]