Core Insights - Consumer spending increased in September, indicating a likely strong economic growth in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - The rise in consumer spending is expected to be a precursor to robust economic growth [1]

WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer spending increased marginally in September, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster ​labor market and rising cost of living curbed demand. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than ‌two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.3% after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in August, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis ‌said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending ad ...

Core Insights - Macy's has raised its sales forecasts for the financial year, expecting full-year sales between $21.5 billion and $21.6 billion, indicating strong consumer spending despite economic concerns [1] - The company reported a sales growth of approximately 3% in the quarter ending Nov. 1, marking its strongest performance in over three years [1] Consumer Behavior - The U.S. retail economy shows that consumers are still willing to spend but are becoming more selective in their purchases [2] - A record $11.8 billion was spent online during Black Friday, reflecting consumer engagement with discounts offered by retailers [2] Strategic Initiatives - Macy's CEO Tony Spring emphasized the importance of price cuts and a compelling product offering as the company enters the holiday season [3] - The increase in sales is attributed to Macy's ability to cater to a diverse consumer base, including both discount shoppers and luxury buyers, with significant sales growth at Bloomingdale's [3] Company Developments - Since joining Macy's in 2024, CEO Spring has focused on investing in high-performing stores by increasing staff and advertising as part of a turnaround strategy [4] - Despite low consumer confidence and predictions of reduced holiday spending, the National Retail Federation reported a rise in shoppers during the Thanksgiving weekend, with 203 million people participating, up from 197 million the previous year [5] Market Trends - Dollar Tree reported a 9.4% sales growth in its latest quarter, benefiting from consumers opting for budget-friendly options [5]

There is no war on Christmas this year, according to one of President Donald Trump’s senior economic advisors, who touted strong consumer spending during the holiday shopping season’s biggest days. "The fact is that we just had the best Black Friday that we've ever seen. And it's not just because people are out there taking debt on their credit cards, it's because incomes are way up under President Trump," National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on "Fox & Friends" Sunday."[Incomes] dropped abo ...

So, I'm at Visa's Cyber Fusion Center. This is in Virginia, just outside DC. It operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year to detect, protect, and monitor transactions all around the world.The network processes about 110,000 transactions a second, likely a multiple more on a day like here today, Cyber Monday. E-commerce shopping, of course, is likely to peak later in the day into the evening after work. That cadence has changed over the years.And on Black Friday, Visa says it blocked 200% more ...

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - Consumers are looking for value and great deals, but still have money and want joy [3] - The US consumer has been solid worldwide, despite anxieties and cross-currents [4] - There's a barbell and bifurcation in the market, with pressure at the low and middle and strength at the high end [10] - Quiet luxury is a continuing trend, with less focus on logos and more emphasis on quality and materials [8] Retail & Payment Strategies - Increased rates of mobile use, with a mix of buy online pickup in store, curbside pickup, and delivery [5] - New ways of payment are very different for younger customers [6] - Digital advertising for Walmart is in the $5 billion range [14] Company Performance & Strategies - Levi's focuses on direct to consumer strategy by opening their own stores globally [1] - Walmart is favored for its value story, delivery, curbside pickup, marketplace model, and digital advertising [14] - Walmart's leading grocery business accounts for 60% of its revenue [15] M&A and IPO - Selective M&A is possible, especially in beauty, skincare, longevity, and niche fragrances [13] - The market is getting better with the consumer on a more stable footing, making M&A totally possible [13] Luxury Market - Jewelry is outperforming the rest of the luxury world, especially gold jewelry [9][10] - Handbag prices have gotten extreme, making jewelry prices compelling [11] - Creative leadership matters in luxury brands, driving desire and new design [7]

After stopping at Macy's today. They were the first ones that said let's put things on sale Friday. What did you observe today in the 2025 Macy's.Couple of things. First, thank you so much for having me and have a help. You had a great Thanksgiving.What I saw at Macy's, it's a different type of Black Friday than it was in the past. The reason why crowds and traffic, the buzz doesn't kick up until later in the day. And that's for a lot of retailers.Macy's opens at 6 a. m. , but others open later.What did I s ...

Consumer Behavior & Market Trends - The consumer is stable but choiceful, carefully spending between events, a trend expected to continue through the holiday season [2] - Post-Turkey 5 holiday weekend sales drop-offs are expected to be deeper each year [3] - Retailers anticipate deeper discounts this year due to consumer price sensitivity [4] - The upcoming holiday season is expected to be the last before widespread use of AI in shopping [6] Retail Strategies & Profitability - Retailers are increasing prices to create cushion for deeper discounts during key events [5] - Retail media, such as selling advertisements, is becoming increasingly important for retailer profitability [9] - Retailers need to quickly adjust to a more competitive environment with commoditized pricing [7] Key Players & Competitive Advantage - Large, well-positioned players like Walmart, Home Depot, and Costco are leading in technology deployment [10] - Target is actively working to improve its performance, and the stock is considered favorable [10] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic uncertainty, including concerns about low to middle-income consumers and tariffs, exists alongside expectations for growth [1]

Consumer Spending Trends - American consumers are expected to spend less this holiday season, with surveys indicating a decline of 5% to 10% in spending [1][2][6] - Gen Z consumers are the most cautious, planning to spend 23% less than the previous year [2] - The National Retail Federation forecasts a sales increase of 2.9% to 3.4%, potentially surpassing $1 trillion for the first time [2][13] Retail Environment - Major retailers like Walmart and TJ Maxx are reporting strong early sales results, indicating a potential uptick in consumer spending [2][14] - Retailers are beginning to offer Black Friday prices earlier than in previous years, suggesting a competitive market [7][8] Pricing and Tariffs - Potential price hikes are anticipated due to the elimination of the de minimis tariff, which previously allowed goods under $1,000 to enter the U.S. duty-free [3][4] - Consumers are advised to purchase gifts early to avoid potential price increases and shipping delays [5] Payment Methods - A PayPal survey indicates that half of shoppers plan to use "buy now, pay later" options for their holiday shopping, reflecting a trend towards increased credit usage [9][12] - Retailers are aggressively promoting credit card offers at checkout, which may lead to higher consumer debt [12][20] Consumer Behavior Insights - Despite concerns about spending, anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers are still actively shopping, with crowded stores observed [18] - There is a growing concern about rising credit card debt among consumers, with reports of individuals seeking loans for holiday expenses [20]

Market Sentiment & Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs is recommending buying the dips in the markets, suggesting a potentially favorable investment opportunity [1] - Investors are cautiously "nibbling around the edges" rather than aggressively buying the dip, indicating some hesitancy [3] - The expectation is that the Fed will intervene to support the stock market if it declines too much [3][4][5] Macroeconomic Factors - The Fed is potentially cutting interest rates, with no discussion of hiking them [1][16] - Unemployment numbers are around 4% [2] - The federal government is expected to run a $18 billion to $19 billion trillion deficit over the next several years, which could positively impact the stock market [2] Consumer Spending & Retail Performance - The National Retail Federation expects consumers to spend over $1 trillion this holiday season [10] - The high-income consumer is primarily driving the economy, while the low-income consumer remains under pressure [11][12] - There are mixed reads on consumer behavior, with some retailers like Gap and TJ Maxx performing well, while others like Home Depot showed less positive results [7][8] Technology & AI - A strong AI capex narrative is crucial for maintaining market confidence [12][13] - Persistent growth and demand are expected for technology products, even in an economic downturn [14] - Nvidia's performance is a significant barometer for the market, while Dell is considered less so [15] Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The Fed's statements on interest rates and potential rate cuts are crucial drivers for the market [16] - The Fed is potentially more concerned about cracks in private sectors than the stock market or employment [16]