Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN ) has contrasting forces at play that may be holding back shares from stronger growth. With growing concerns for consumer spending as the U.S. economy weakens, growth across its consumer-facing businesses may be at risk. On the other hand, Amazon has aMonte Independent Investment Research: Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with over 5 years of industry experience. Prior to working in the investment management industry, Michael spent over a decade in professional s ...

Group 1 - The stock market is reaching new heights, but this does not correlate with a rally in the macroeconomy, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and economic fundamentals [1] - Consumer-facing businesses are showing warning signs regarding consumer confidence and spending, suggesting challenges in the retail sector [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in covering technology companies and working with startups, which provides insights into current industry trends [1]

Core Insights - Consumer spending showed positive growth in August, driven by back-to-school shopping and potential tariff effects [1][4] - Total retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month and 6.8% year-over-year, indicating strong annual performance despite a slight decline from the previous month [2][3] - Core retail sales, excluding restaurants, rose by 0.3%, slightly lower than overall retail sales growth [2] Retail Performance - The retail monitor indicates considerable volatility in consumer spending, with fluctuations influenced by tariffs and inflation [3][6] - Eight out of twelve retail sectors experienced growth, particularly digital products which increased by 1.6% [4][5] - Discretionary spending showed mixed results, with food and beverage up by 1% and general merchandise up by 0.4%, while sporting goods and garden supplies saw declines of 0.8% and 2.1% respectively [5] Inflation and Tariff Impact - Some gains in retail sales may reflect inflation in imported goods, with consumers potentially buying ahead of tariff increases [4][6] - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending has been weak over the past three months, suggesting a possible tariff impact [6] Digital Sales Trends - Online sales, particularly in software and digital products, have been consistently strong, contributing positively to overall retail performance [7][8] - The digital category has shown robust growth, with regular increases between 0.5% and 1.5% [8]

Economic Outlook & Consumer Behavior - Companies are struggling to pass price increases to consumers, especially those selling to lower-income demographics [2] - Consumers have absorbed price increases for the past five years since COVID, but are now resistant due to diminished cash reserves [3][4] - Lower-income consumers are depleting their cash balances and increasing debt, excluding mortgage debt [8][9][10] - There's concern that economic weakness among lower-income consumers could spread to other segments [11] Monetary Policy & Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a "bad news is good news" situation, but there's a risk of "bad news is bad news" scenario [6] - Risk-on assets (equities, credit spreads) and risk-off assets (gold, government bonds) are both performing well [6] - The employment side is much weaker than expected, while the latest inflation print is much better than expected [5] - A potential 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve should be considered, given the data [12] Productivity & Future Growth - Deregulation is needed to improve supply-side response [13] - Optimism exists regarding productivity gains in the coming years due to AI, life sciences, and robotics [13]

Part of what we also saw was that particularly with middle and lower income consumers, they're feeling under a lot of pressure right now. I think there's a lot of, you know, commentary about what's the state of the economy, how's it doing, and and what we see is it's really kind of a two-tier economy. If you're upper income, earning over $100,000, things are good.Stock markets are near all-time highs. You're feeling uh, you know, quite confident about things. you're seeing international travel, all those ba ...

Markets may be reacting to the data but maybe to the idea of a new Fed board on the way with an 88% that is 89% higher than it was before. Probability of a first cut in September 48% for a second cut in October. So kind of toying with maybe it happens in October more sure of the with the 85% it happens in December.The result of the data was to boost the CNBC Moody's rapid update tracking forecast for the third quarter of 3.3%. pretty healthy, showing the economy and inflation accelerating amid curiously cal ...

We're in the midst of the allimportant back to school season right now. How important is that for these retailers and kind of what can we read into it. >> It's extraordinarily important. It's second only to holiday.You have to get these kids in clothes, you know, before they go to school. So, there's kind of we like that kind of deadline because they can't really wait forever for the the great price. Although, we are seeing it very promotional already.Everybody's trying to kind of get ahead of each other. > ...

Hello and welcome to Ask for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton. For the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow.There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving into. It was a sliding start for stocks at the beginning of the trading week.Investors seem to have maybe lost their zest after Jackson Hole and as they parse retail data and await Nvidia earnings at the end of ...

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]

Look at European equity market futures markets. They don't look all that inspiring. But we've had so much news and we're set to get a little data this week.It doesn't feel necessarily necessarily as if the market action is living up to all of the inputs. What are you making of the stock market performance right now. Good morning, John.Well, it's precisely because of all those scheduled catalysts that people are reluctant to take too big bets to add too much risk at the moment. I think ultimately I expect th ...