There is a lot of volatility in the market. We have seen that actually over the last weeks and months. Whenever something is supposed to be there, market is reacting.Uh in our books, I can tell you no, there is no deterioration. Um we have actually we're very confident with our credit portfolio. um and that across the world whether it's in Germany whether it's in Europe uh whether it's in the US um in the different asset classes corporate bank private bank um and and in this regard um I I think the market i ...

Global credit markets are on edge as fresh loan blowups fuel credit risk concerns and stir memories of the 2023 US regional banking crisis https://t.co/aGBcYekrM1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Regional banks are experiencing a rebound in share prices, with positive earnings reports providing relief amid concerns about credit quality [1] Company Performance - Huntington Bank reported better-than-expected quarterly results and provided upbeat guidance, indicating strong performance [1] - The company maintains a moderate to low risk appetite established 15 years ago, resulting in consistently strong results, with charge-offs at 22 basis points and a reduction in non-performing loans and delinquencies [3][5] - The company is optimistic about loan growth, projecting over 8% growth for the year [6] Consumer and Business Outlook - The consumer landscape is mixed, with low to moderate-income consumers facing stress from inflation, while the majority of consumers are in good shape [7][8] - The company has seen peer-leading deposit and loan growth, contributing to a widening net interest margin due to recent Fed interest rate cuts [9] Market Position and Strategy - The stock has been relatively flat over the year, with a recent decline of 8% over three months, attributed to market sorting between buyers and sellers [10] - The company is focused on core growth and has consistently raised guidance each quarter, indicating confidence in future performance [12] - The regulatory environment has changed, leading to expectations of more bank deals, with the company recently closing a significant combination with Veritex [13][14] Growth Initiatives - The company has expanded into new markets, including North and South Carolina, and plans to open several branches in the coming years [14] - The focus remains on organic growth rather than acquisitions, with a strong emphasis on driving performance through existing operations [15][16]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - President Trump indicated a softer stance on China tariffs, stating that a 100% tariff on China is not sustainable and confirming a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in two weeks [1][5][9] - The U.S. is reportedly preparing to ease tariffs on the auto industry, with a potential five-year extension allowing automakers to reduce tariffs on imported car parts, which could alleviate the $10 billion in duties already paid this year [2][24][25] Group 2: Banking Sector and Credit Risks - Regional banks, such as Zions and Western Alliance, reported significant losses due to fraud related to loans for distressed commercial mortgages, leading to market sell-offs and increased credit risk concerns [3][11][10] - The VIX index spiked, indicating heightened market volatility, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below 4% for the first time since April [3][31] Group 3: Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - American Express reported better-than-expected earnings with record revenue of $18.4 billion, raising its full-year revenue growth outlook to between 9% and 10% [4][28] - Despite initial market jitters, stock futures recovered slightly due to President Trump's optimistic comments on trade, with the Dow indicated to open in positive territory [5][8] Group 4: Commodity Market Movements - Gold prices continue to rise, nearing record highs, while Bitcoin has seen a significant decline of 8% over the past five days, trading around $15,000 [16][19][22] - Oil prices have decreased, leading to the lowest gas prices since January, influenced by geopolitical factors involving Russia and Ukraine [20][21]

TOM: GOOD MORNING. THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK EUROPE. HAPPY FRIDAY.I’M TOM MACKENZIE. A GAUGE OF U.S. REGIONAL BANKS PLUNGED MORE THAN 6%. THE FEARS OUTWEIGH NEWS OF TARIFF RELIEF FOR THE COUNTRY’S AUTO INDUSTRY.MEANWHILE THE U.S. PRESIDENT IS SET TO HOST UKRAINE’S VOLODYMYR ZELENSKY AFTER A SECOND MEETING WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN. THE SPANISH BANK IS OFF AFTER SHAREHOLDERS SAY NO. BLOOMBERG HAS THE FIRST INTERVIEW WITH THE BBVA CHAIRMAN LATER THIS MORNING.♪ TOM: IT IS RISK OFF ACROSS THE GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS A ...

Market Trends - Debt investors are actively avoiding Europe's riskiest credits due to recent fractious restructurings [1]

Consumer Credit Concerns - Credit scores are falling at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis [2] - 90-day plus delinquency rates for credit cards are north of 12%, the highest in 14 years, with an average rate of about 215% and $12 trillion [2] - CarMax reported increased loan loss reserves due to subprime customers (FICO scores under 550) having the most trouble [9] - A significant portion of thericcolor bankruptcy borrowers had no credit scores or scores around 600, highlighting concerns about lower-quality consumers [10] Market and Bank Performance - Despite consumer credit concerns, the market (HYG) has remained resilient [3] - Banks experienced pressure, possibly due to rebalancing or concerns about access to credit [4] - American Express, expected to perform well due to its higher-end demographic, was surprisingly hard hit [13][14] - Mastercard and Visa held up relatively well [14] - JP Morgan and Capital One earnings will provide insights into different customer segments [12][15] Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) - BNPL options are prevalent for online purchases, potentially unique to this cycle [5] - Affirm (a firm) experienced a post-IPO pop but quickly broke price, indicating potential investor concerns [5][6] - The lower-end consumer is particularly relevant to the BNPL sector [8][9] Economic Outlook - The push and pull between the Fed's dual mandate (full employment and stable prices) continues [7] - PCE data was "sticky," and the upcoming jobs number may shift focus to the lower-end consumer [7][8] - The economy is perceived as "doing okay," with a good employment picture, though a government shutdown could cause disruption [12]

A key US corporate bond credit risk gauge fell Wednesday after the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year https://t.co/AmuP9SIAPx ...

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year [3][6][14] - Treasury volatility is at a three-year low, with the 10-year yield approaching 4%, indicating a stable bond market [1][4] - Credit risk measures have fallen to their lowest levels since February, raising concerns about potential complacency among investors [1][25] Group 2 - Inflation remains a concern, with indications that it may be stickier than previously thought, which could impact the Fed's rate-cutting strategy [2][9][18] - The bond market is perceived to be underpricing inflation risks, suggesting that investors may not be adequately compensated for extending out the yield curve [18][20] - There is a notable disconnect in the high-yield market, with a significant portion of issuance being for refinancing or debt repayment, indicating limited new money entering the market [27][28] Group 3 - The demand for high-grade credit remains robust, with Wells Fargo leading a $4 billion deal, although overall issuance has slowed [22][23] - The credit market is currently pricing in low risk levels, similar to late 1990s, despite increased issuance, suggesting a potential overconfidence among investors [25][26] - The performance of credit portfolios shows a trend of quality upgrades outpacing downgrades, indicating a generally healthy credit environment [23][24]

Core Insights - Dave Inc.'s profitability expanded significantly with adjusted net income increasing 233% year over year to $45.7 million in Q2 2025, and adjusted EBITDA rising 236% to $50.9 million, indicating strong operational improvements and scalability [1][4][7] - Management raised revenue guidance for 2025 to $505-$515 million from a previous estimate of $460-$475 million, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $180-$190 million from $155-$165 million, reflecting confidence in effective cost management [2][4][7] - Despite improved margins, there are concerns regarding rising credit loss provisions due to an increase in delinquency rates to 2.4%, which may limit future margin expansion [3][4][7] Financial Performance - The stock price of Dave Inc. surged 394.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 63.9% and the S&P 500's rise of 15.5% [5] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.55X, which is lower than the industry average of 26.07X, indicating potential valuation attractiveness [9] Market Position and Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dave's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 11.2% and 8.1%, respectively, over the past 60 days, suggesting positive market sentiment [11] - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating a cautious outlook despite recent performance improvements [12]