Macroeconomic Outlook - A major Canadian lender anticipates Prime Minister Mark Carney will increase Canada's deficit to approximately 3% of its GDP [1] Government Initiatives - The government is expected to undertake significant projects and aim to attract increased investment [1]

Government Finance - Canada faces a deficit of 360 billion Canadian dollars [1] Infrastructure Investment - Significant spending is required to bring Canada's infrastructure to its desired state [1]

we were left with a mess. It was the largest deficit uh when we weren't in a recession, weren't at war, and we are fixing the deficit. And um you know, there could be a a discussion, but this isn't the way to have a discussion.Shutting down the government and lowering the GDP. They they you have a 3.8% 8% GDP and the Democrats shut down the government that you we could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working Americans. The Democrats want to negotiate uh you know in the you know like terro ...

France's Economic Situation - France's deficit to GDP ratio stands at 58%, exceeding the EU's 3% ceiling [1] - France's debt to GDP ratio increased from 98% in 2019 to 114% currently [2] Eurozone and Global Implications - Theoretically, rising borrowing costs in France should pressure the euro, but the euro has rallied nearly 14% against the dollar since January [3] - French 10-year yields are at 35%, matching their 2023 highs, comparable to Greece and Italy [3] - US debt to GDP ratio at 122% makes France's situation look relatively stable [4] - Global markets suggest the situation isn't yet cause for serious alarm, but a change in stance could lead to rising French yields and a declining euro [4] Factors Contributing to Deficit - France has long been known for big social safety nets, which can drive deficits [1] - Russia reduced energy supplies to France in 2022, leading to heavy government subsidies to support affected industries [2]

Government Finance - Canada is projected to have a "substantial" deficit [1]

Economic Indicators - Monthly tariffs amount to $30 billion (approximately $300 billion annually) [1] - Tax receipts are growing at approximately 10% year-over-year [1] - Despite tariff revenue and tax receipt growth, the deficit is larger than the previous year [1] Market Analysis - The confluence of factors suggests a "perpetual motion machine" of stimulus [1] - It is argued that classic recessions are potentially obsolete [1]

Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]

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US tariff revenue hit a new monthly record in August, reflecting President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, though that still left the federal government with the third-biggest deficit on record so far this fiscal year https://t.co/AtZwlu1oyu ...

Government Finance & Debt Market - French politicians' efforts to reduce the deficit, currently at 5.4% of GDP, could destabilize the government [1] - The bond market's reaction to these efforts is a key concern [1]