Economic Indicators - Monthly tariffs amount to $30 billion (approximately $300 billion annually) [1] - Tax receipts are growing at approximately 10% year-over-year [1] - Despite tariff revenue and tax receipt growth, the deficit is larger than the previous year [1] Market Analysis - The confluence of factors suggests a "perpetual motion machine" of stimulus [1] - It is argued that classic recessions are potentially obsolete [1]

Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]

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US tariff revenue hit a new monthly record in August, reflecting President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, though that still left the federal government with the third-biggest deficit on record so far this fiscal year https://t.co/AtZwlu1oyu ...

Just how far can French politicians push the bond market? Efforts to slash the country’s American-style deficit, which sits at 5.4% of GDP, might soon bring down another government https://t.co/td8LGJVDIt ...

Financial Performance - Alberta is projecting a wider deficit for the current fiscal year [1] Industry Trends - Falling oil prices are denting a key source of revenue for Canada's top energy-producing province [1]

Trade Policy - Mexico plans to increase tariffs on China in its 2026 budget [1] - The tariff increase aims to protect local industry [1] - The measure addresses pressure from Trump [1] - The policy seeks to reduce Mexico's deficit, which is at its highest level since the 1980s [1]

US Treasury Deficit - The US Treasury experienced a significant deficit of $291 billion in July, exceeding economists' expectations of $183 billion [1] - July's deficit was notably higher than the $244 billion deficit recorded in July of the previous year [2] - Increased government spending, reaching an all-time high for July, contributed to the larger deficit, with spending up 10% year-over-year [2] - The fiscal year-to-date deficit stands at $16 trillion, slightly above the level from the same period last year [3] Customs Revenue - The US collected $28 billion in customs revenue last month, a figure that includes more than just tariffs [3] - Customs revenue has increased this year, coinciding with the implementation of tariffs [4] - Year-to-date customs duties collected by the Treasury amount to approximately $115 billion [4] - The actual tariff revenue collected is significantly less than the trillions of dollars often cited [4]

Municipal investors are starting to demand a bigger premium on the debt of Chicago’s junk-rated, cash-strapped school district, which must figure out how to close a $734 million deficit before the end of this month https://t.co/RAXxJwfbWR ...

Trudy. It's an amazing story. Give us the details on why these pension decisions are really giving Chicago a much worth of a time now at raising money.So Chicago already is facing what early estimates indicate is $1,000,000,000 deficit in 2026. And its long term financial outlook also is weighed down by the net unfunded pension liability that it carries. Now, this new pension law that was just signed by Governor Pritzker last week potentially adds another $11 billion to roughly $36.5% billion long term liab ...