Core Viewpoint - Baird has reduced its price target for Meta Platforms Inc. to $815 from $820 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing ongoing near-term risks to investor sentiment and a more balanced risk-reward scenario compared to earlier in the year [1] Group 1: Risks and Expectations - Meta continues to face headline risks related to privacy, usage trends, and its strategic shift toward short-form video, but expectations have become more realistic compared to three months ago [2] - Baird encourages investors to take advantage of potential pullbacks and position themselves opportunistically [2] Group 2: Potential Catalysts - Potential catalysts for Meta include clarity from first-quarter guidance and margin commentary, the launch of the next Llama model from Meta's TBD Lab, and enhancements to Meta AI [3] - Additional upside drivers consist of improvements in content ranking, relevance, engagement metrics, monetization acceleration at WhatsApp and Threads, deeper penetration of Advantage+ automation tools, and long-term optionality related to wearables and custom silicon development [3] Group 3: Valuation Analysis - The $815 price target is based on a multi-year discounted cash flow analysis, a 30x multiple on 2026 estimated GAAP earnings, and a 15x multiple on 2026 estimated EV/EBITDA, which are within peer ranges of 10x–30x for 2026 earnings and 5x–30x for EV/EBITDA [4] - Despite elevated risks, Meta's market leadership, margin structure, diversified revenue streams, platform scale, and technology orientation may enable the company to regain a valuation premium over peers in the long run [4]

Core Insights - Alcoa Corporation is a leading player in the industrial products sector, focusing on aluminum and alumina production, benefiting from vertical integration and a strong balance sheet to navigate commodity price cycles [1] - The company is currently trading at a 50% discount to the sector median EV/EBITDA, indicating potential for growth as market conditions improve [2][6] Investment Sentiment - Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley has set a price target of $52 for Alcoa, suggesting a potential upside of 14.16% from its current trading price of $45.55 [2][6] - Institutional investors, including Federated Hermes Inc. and Arrow Capital Pty Ltd, have increased their stakes in Alcoa, reflecting positive sentiment towards the company's future [3][4][6] Market Performance - Alcoa's market capitalization is approximately $11.8 billion, with a recent stock price decrease of 1.28% [5] - The stock has traded between $45.40 and $46.68 today, with a 52-week high of $47.48 and a low of $21.53, indicating active investor interest [5]

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan has adjusted its production expectations for the Grasberg mine following an investigation into a mud-flow incident, leading to lower multi-year production guidance while indicating that operational challenges are beginning to ease [1][2]. Production Guidance - The updated production outlook for 2026 includes an expected output of 1.0 billion pounds of copper and 0.9 million ounces of gold, which is 8% and 14% lower than previous forecasts [4]. - For 2027, the guidance is set at 1.5 billion pounds of copper and 1.2 million ounces of gold, reflecting reductions of 15% and 19% respectively compared to earlier models [5]. Capital Expenditure - The capital expenditure guidance for 2026 has been reduced to $4.1 billion from a prior estimate of $5.2 billion, indicating deferred spending plans [5]. Analyst Revisions - Scotiabank analyst Orest Wowkodaw upgraded Freeport-McMoRan to Sector Outperform, citing improved multi-year visibility and a strong balance sheet despite lowering his 12-month price forecast to $47 from $51 [1][2][3]. - Morgan Stanley's Carlos De Alba maintained an Overweight rating while lowering the price target from $46 to $44, and BMO Capital Markets analyst Katja Jancic reiterated an Outperform rating with a price target adjustment from $48 to $47 [6]. Market Reaction - Following the updates, Freeport-McMoRan shares experienced a rise of 3.42%, trading at $41.37 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that the market valuation multiples for Caterpillar's power generation business have significantly exceeded those of industry leaders like Nvidia and GE Vernova, indicating a potential overvaluation that could lead to a sharp correction if market conditions change [1][4]. Valuation Comparison - Caterpillar's power generation business is currently valued at an EV/EBITDA multiple between 58x and 103x, while GE Vernova and Nvidia are valued at approximately 28x and 25x, respectively [1][4]. - This suggests that the market perceives Caterpillar's power generation business as more valuable than the related businesses of top technology and energy companies [4]. Business Segment Analysis - The projected EBITDA for Caterpillar's segments in 2026 is as follows: - Construction Industries: $3,664 million at a 13.0x multiple, resulting in an EV of $47,628 million - Resource Industries: $2,118 million at a 13.0x multiple, resulting in an EV of $27,538 million - Power Generation: $1,508 million at a 103.0x multiple, resulting in an EV of $155,369 million - Other Energy & Transportation: $7,132 million at a 13.0x multiple, resulting in an EV of $92,713 million [5]. Market Expectations - To justify Caterpillar's current stock price of $585, the market must accept one of two extreme scenarios: 1. The valuation of Caterpillar's traditional cyclical businesses (like construction and resource extraction) is pushed to "absurd levels" far beyond historical norms. 2. Even with optimistic assumptions for the power generation business, the implied valuation for cyclical businesses remains high at 28x, despite declining operating margins [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley estimates that even with aggressive growth projections for the power generation business, it is unlikely to meet bullish expectations of $20 billion in sales by 2027 [7]. Price Target and EPS Forecast - Morgan Stanley maintains a 2026 EPS forecast for Caterpillar at $19.24, with a target price of $380 based on a 20x P/E ratio, indicating a potential downside of 35% from the current stock price [7].

Core Insights - Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD) is scheduled to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 30, with earnings estimated at 67 cents per share, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year increase, while revenues are expected to decline by 9% to $12.6 billion [1][5]. Earnings Performance - EPD has beaten consensus earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 0.01% [2]. - The current Earnings ESP for EPD is -0.75%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), indicating a lower likelihood of an earnings beat this time [3]. Operational Factors - EPD operates a pipeline network exceeding 50,000 miles and has over 300 million barrels of liquids storage capacity, which is expected to generate stable fee-based revenues [4]. - The Gross operating margin from the Natural Gas Pipelines & Services segment is estimated at $402.33 million, up from $349 million a year ago [6]. Market Performance - EPD's stock has increased by 14.8% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 2.9% [7]. - The current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio for EPD is 10.08, which is lower than the industry average of 10.44, suggesting it is undervalued [10]. Commodity Dependence - EPD relies heavily on the Permian Basin for its operations, which is experiencing a shift towards natural gas production as core oil-producing regions are depleting [12]. - This shift may pressure EPD's profit margins, as natural gas and NGLs are generally less profitable than oil [13]. Comparison with Peers - Enbridge (ENB) is set to report earnings on November 7, 2025, with an Earnings ESP of -7.36% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [14]. - Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) reported third-quarter earnings of 29 cents per share, meeting estimates, with total revenues of $4.15 billion, surpassing expectations [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - MGM China (02282) shares rose over 5%, reaching HKD 15.05, with a trading volume of HKD 87.37 million, driven by positive industry forecasts and analyst upgrades [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - Citigroup forecasts a 7% year-on-year increase in EBITDA for the Macau gaming operators in Q3, with MGM China expected to achieve a 13% year-on-year growth [1] - The anticipated higher EBITDA growth for MGM China compared to the industry may provide positive stock momentum ahead of the company's earnings announcement on October 30 [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China, setting a target price of HKD 19, and includes it in the positive catalyst watchlist for October 30 [1] - Credit Lyonnais believes MGM China has revaluation potential, noting that its 2026 EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples remain low among six Macau gaming companies [1] - Following an assessment of market share, profit margins, return on capital, and dividend growth, Credit Lyonnais raised its target price for MGM China from HKD 18.3 to HKD 22.7, maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1]

Core Insights - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) anticipates a sequential increase in third-quarter 2025 earnings by up to $300 million, primarily driven by changes in oil prices and favorable refining margins [1][8] - The company expects its energy products business unit to generate earnings between $300 million and $700 million in the same quarter due to favorable industry refining trends [4][8] Oil & Natural Gas Price Impact - XOM projects a sequential earnings increase of $200 million in Q3 2025 due to natural gas price changes, with potential impacts ranging from a $200 million loss to a $200 million profit [2] - Average WTI spot prices for July, August, and September 2025 were $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel, respectively, indicating a healthier pricing environment compared to the previous quarter [3] Production Outlook - ExxonMobil aims to increase its Permian production to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the decade, up from approximately 1.6 million [5] - The company has made significant oil and gas discoveries in offshore Guyana, estimating recoverable reserves at 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent [6] Dividend and Stock Performance - XOM's current dividend yield is 3.47%, lower than the industry average of 4.4%, with competitors like BP and Chevron offering higher yields [7] - Over the past year, XOM's stock has declined by 4%, underperforming the industry's composite gain of 1% [8][12] Valuation Concerns - XOM is considered overvalued, trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 7.32X, which is higher than the industry average of 4.49X [14] - Compared to BP and Chevron, ExxonMobil's stock is currently priced at a premium [14] Future Outlook - The third-quarter 2025 results are expected to reflect a weaker oil pricing environment compared to the same period last year, with projected WTI prices declining in the coming years [10][11] - Despite a strong production outlook, the anticipated weakening of crude prices may negatively impact XOM's earnings [11]

Group 1 - UBS expects Budweiser APAC (01876) to see a turnaround in the Chinese market by Q4 2025 due to low base effects and stabilization of average selling prices, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The target price for Budweiser APAC has been slightly raised from HKD 9.05 to HKD 9.07, implying a projected EV/EBITDA of 7 times for 2026, based on a 5% CAGR in EBITDA from 2025 to 2027 [1] - UBS conducted an on-site visit in Fujian, including factory and market tours, and discussions with Budweiser APAC's CFO, revealing ongoing challenges in the Chinese beer market due to a decline in offline channels such as restaurants and nightlife [1] Group 2 - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 3% to 2%, considering a projected decline in sales in China during the second half of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP (ET) has outperformed the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry, gaining 7.9% over the past year while the industry declined by 0.8% [1][8]. Performance Summary - Energy Transfer is trading above its 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a bullish trend [6]. - The company secures 90% of its revenues from fee-based contracts, providing stable cash flow [10]. - ET's current trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA is 9.29X, below the industry average of 10.65X, suggesting it is undervalued [21]. Growth Factors - Energy Transfer has a vast midstream network of nearly 140,000 miles of pipelines, enhancing its competitive edge [11]. - The company is strategically positioned to meet rising U.S. natural gas demand through its extensive storage network [12]. - Strategic acquisitions have bolstered ET's operations, enhancing scale and efficiency [13]. - The company plans to invest $5 billion in capital spending to strengthen its infrastructure [14]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates year-over-year earnings growth of 8.59% for 2025 and 10.91% for 2026 [15]. - Current estimates for 2025 earnings per unit are $1.39, with a high estimate of $1.46 and a low estimate of $1.31 [17]. Cash Distribution - ET's current quarterly cash distribution rate is 33 cents per common unit, with management raising distribution rates 16 times in the past five years [19]. Comparison with Peers - Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) has seen a decline of 1.9% over the past year, contrasting with ET's growth [6]. - Delek Logistics Partner LP (DKL) has a higher distribution rate but also a higher payout ratio of 151% [20]. Conclusion - Energy Transfer is well-positioned to benefit from increasing U.S. oil, natural gas, and NGL production, supported by fee-based earnings and strategic acquisitions [26].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Kingsoft Holdings in 1H25 exceeded expectations, with significant growth in both total revenue and EBITDA, driven by a recovery in business volume and the introduction of new products [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached $342 million, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27%, recovering to 38% of the level in 1H19 [1]. - Total gaming revenue was $332 million, also reflecting a 17% year-on-year increase and a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase, recovering to 38% of the level in 1H19 [1]. - EBITDA amounted to $200 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 261% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 36%, recovering to 61% of the level in 1H19, surpassing the forecast of $188 million [1]. Development Trends - Infrastructure improvements and increased flight frequency have boosted visitor numbers, driving growth in the mid-market segment [1]. - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Cambodia increased by 51% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter in 1H25, with business travelers increasing by 46% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The new Decho International Airport is set to open in September 2025, with a passenger capacity of 13 million, while the existing Phnom Penh International Airport will cease operations [1]. VIP Business Growth - The direct VIP business turnover increased by 88% year-on-year and 87% quarter-on-quarter in 1H25, driven by the rise in business travelers and expatriates [2]. - The acceleration in foreign direct investment in Cambodia, particularly following Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit in April, has contributed to this growth [2]. Future Plans and Dividend - The Naga 3 project is expected to announce more details in 1H26, with management anticipating more iconic tourist attractions and amenities [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of $0.0101 per share, corresponding to a 30% payout ratio, compared to a historical level of 60% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 6%, reaching $406 million and $481 million, respectively [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to 7 times the 2025 EV/EBITDA, with a target price raised by 12% to HKD 6.50, indicating a 12% upside potential from the current price [2].