Company Overview - Western Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: WDC) is a leading American data storage company known for manufacturing hard drives, solid-state drives, and NAND flash memory [2] - The company is scheduled to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts expecting adjusted earnings of $1.48 per share on $2.47 billion in revenue [2] Earnings Expectations - The expected earnings indicate a year-over-year increase of 3% in earnings but a significant 34% drop in revenue compared to the same quarter of the previous year, which reported $1.44 per share and $3.76 billion in revenue [2] - This earnings announcement will be the second following the successful completion of Western Digital's planned separation from SanDisk, allowing the company to focus on its core HDD business [2] Historical Performance - Historically, Western Digital's stock has decreased after earnings announcements 53% of the time, with a median one-day loss of 3.1% and a maximum post-earnings decline of 10% [3] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $24 billion, with revenue over the last twelve months at $19 billion, generating $2.5 billion in operating profits and a net income of $1.7 billion [3] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical performance patterns and the gap between actual earnings results and market expectations to inform their strategies [4] - Traders may choose to position themselves ahead of the earnings release or react after the announcement based on short- and medium-term returns [4] Post-Earnings Return Analysis - Over the last five years, there have been 19 documented earnings data points for Western Digital, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns observed about 47% of the time [5] - This percentage increases to 50% when considering data from the last three years [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 4.7%, while the median of the 10 negative returns is -3.1% [5] Correlation of Returns - Understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can help traders make informed decisions [6] - If the 1D post-earnings return is positive and shows high correlation with 5D returns, traders can position themselves "long" for the next 5 days [6]

Core Insights - Altria is expected to announce earnings on July 30, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.38 per share and revenues of $5.19 billion, compared to $1.31 per share and $5.28 billion in the same quarter last year [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Altria's stock has shown a positive one-day return in 53% of cases following earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 1.9% and a maximum increase of 7.8% [3][7]. - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns increased to 55%, with the median of positive returns at 1.9% and negative returns at -2.1% [7]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Altria has a current market capitalization of $101 billion, generating $20 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with $12 billion in operating profits and a net income of $10 billion, indicating strong operational profitability [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders may consider pre-earnings positioning based on historical probabilities and evaluate immediate and mid-term stock reactions post-earnings to inform trading decisions [6]. - Correlation between short-term and medium-term returns can be analyzed to identify suitable trading strategies, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [8].

Group 1 - Prudential Financial is expected to report earnings on July 30, 2025, with revenues projected at approximately $13.4 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decline, and earnings per share estimated at $3.23, indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous year [2] - The U.S. insurance operations are anticipated to remain a significant contributor to earnings, with improved underwriting and reduced expenses in Q1, although some areas are experiencing weaker investment and fee-related income [2] - The global investment management division is likely to perform well due to an increase in assets under management driven by equity market appreciation, net inflows, and enhanced investment performance [3] Group 2 - The current market capitalization of Prudential Financial is $37 billion, with total revenue for the past twelve months at $61 billion and net income at $2.3 billion [4] - Historical data shows that Prudential Financial has recorded 20 earnings data points over the past five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 45% occurrence of positive returns [7] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 2.5%, while the median of the negative returns is -2.2% [7] Group 3 - There is a strategy to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings, which can help in executing trades based on the strongest correlations observed [8] - The performance of peers can influence the post-earnings stock reaction, with historical data indicating that price adjustments may begin before earnings are disclosed [9] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, delivering returns exceeding 91% since its inception, providing an alternative for investors seeking less volatility [5][10]

See earnings reaction history of all stocks T-Mobile US's Historical Likelihood Of Positive Post-Earnings Return Some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns: Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images Getty Images T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with revenue anticipated to increase by approximately 6% year-over-year to $21 billion, while earnings per share are expected to rise slightly to $2.69. This growth is likely to be fueled by post ...

Group 1 - Newmont Mining Corporation is set to announce its earnings on July 24, 2025, with a consensus estimate of approximately $1.01 per share and projected revenue growth of nearly 9% year-over-year due to higher average gold prices [2] - The company's current market capitalization is $66 billion, with revenue over the past twelve months reaching $20 billion, operating profits of $7.0 billion, and net income of $5.1 billion [3] - Historical earnings data indicates that in the last five years, Newmont has recorded 16 earnings data points, with only 4 positive one-day returns, resulting in a 25% occurrence rate of positive returns [6] Group 2 - The median of the 4 positive one-day returns is 1.3%, while the median of the 12 negative returns is -4.4%, indicating a tendency towards negative performance post-earnings [6] - A strategy to analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings can be employed, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns show high correlation [7] - The Trefis High Quality portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500, achieving returns exceeding 91% since its inception, providing an alternative for investors seeking less volatility [4][8]

Group 1 - Kroger is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter earnings on June 20, 2025, with analysts expecting earnings of $1.46 per share and revenue of $45.3 billion, indicating a 12% year-over-year increase in earnings while sales growth remains flat [2] - In FY 2024, Kroger's same-store sales increased by 1.5%, and gross margin improved by 50 basis points to 22.3%, although adjusted EPS fell by 6% [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $44 billion, generated $147 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, and reported $3.8 billion in operating profits and $2.7 billion in net income [4] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that Kroger's stock has risen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median increase of 5.4% in one day [2][6] - The percentage of positive one-day returns post-earnings increases to 64% when analyzing data from the past three years, with a median of 5.4% for positive returns and -3.0% for negative returns [6][8] - The company plans to mitigate risks from trade tensions and tariffs by diversifying suppliers and optimizing its supply chain, although the recent departure of CEO Rodney McMullen may complicate these efforts [4]

Core Insights - HealthEquity (NASDAQ:HQY) is expected to announce earnings on June 3, 2025, with a historical trend of positive returns post-earnings announcements, achieving a positive one-day return in 70% of cases over the last five years [1][5] - Analysts predict earnings of $0.81 per share on revenue of $322 million, reflecting growth from the previous year's earnings of $0.80 per share on revenue of $288 million [2] - HealthEquity has a market capitalization of $8.7 billion and generated $1.2 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $203 million and net income of $97 million [2] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, HealthEquity recorded 20 earnings data points, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 70% rate of positive returns [5] - The median increase for positive returns was 3.4%, while the median decrease for negative returns was -6.3% [5] - The percentage of positive one-day returns rises to 92% when considering data from the last three years [5] Trading Strategies - Traders can utilize historical trends to inform pre-earnings positioning and consider entering positions before earnings announcements [4] - Post-earnings, traders can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns to adjust their positions accordingly [4] - A strategy involving correlation between 1D and 5D returns can be employed, where a positive 1D return may lead to a long position for the next 5 days [3][4]

Group 1 - Bath & Body Works (BBWI) is expected to announce fiscal Q1 2025 earnings on May 29, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of 47 cents per share and revenue of $1.42 billion, reflecting a 21% increase in earnings and a 3% rise in sales year-over-year [1] - In Q4 2024, BBWI reported a 4% decrease in net sales and an 18% decline in earnings per diluted share, attributing these results to a shifted fiscal calendar and reduced consumer demand [2] - The company faces challenges from U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, sluggish discretionary spending, and increased competition from lower-cost private-label options, alongside high interest rates and economic uncertainty affecting consumer interest in non-essential products [2] Group 2 - For 2025, BBWI's guidance indicates 1-3% sales growth and an EPS range of $3.25-$3.60, suggesting cautious optimism with modest growth compared to adjusted results from 2024 [2] - The current market capitalization of BBWI is $6.5 billion, with total revenue over the last twelve months at $7.3 billion, operational profits of $1.3 billion, and net income of $798 million [2] Group 3 - Historical data shows that BBWI stock has increased 60% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day rise of 4.8% and a maximum recorded increase of 25% [1][5] - There are 20 documented earnings data points over the past five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, indicating positive returns occurred approximately 60% of the time [5]

Core Insights - Nutanix is set to report earnings on May 28, 2025, with historical data indicating notable stock volatility following earnings announcements [1][2] - Analysts expect Nutanix to announce earnings of $0.38 per share on revenues of $627 million, compared to $0.28 per share on revenues of $525 million in the same quarter last year [2] - Nutanix has a market capitalization of $21 billion and generated $2.3 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, achieving operational profitability with $69 million in operating profits despite a net loss of $55 million [2] Historical Performance - Over the last five years, Nutanix has recorded positive one-day returns in approximately 60% of instances following earnings announcements, with a median positive return of 9.9% and a maximum increase of 29.2% [1][5] - The percentage of positive one-day returns rises to 73% when analyzing data from the last three years [5] - There have been 20 earnings data points documented over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns observed [5] Post-Earnings Strategy - Traders can analyze the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings to guide trading strategies, particularly focusing on pairs with the highest correlation [3][4] - A comparatively lower-risk approach involves assessing historical probabilities and establishing a position before the earnings announcement [4] - Peer performance can impact post-earnings stock reactions, with historical insights indicating that pricing may begin even before earnings are revealed [6]

Group 1 - Home Depot is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings on May 20, 2025, with anticipated earnings of $3.59 per share and revenue of $39.16 billion, indicating a 1% decline in earnings year-over-year and an 8% increase in sales compared to the previous year [1] - The company's current market capitalization stands at $370 billion, with $160 billion in revenue, $22 billion in operating profit, and a net income of $15 billion over the last twelve months [2] - Historical data shows that Home Depot's stock has fallen 55% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median drop of 2.5% in one day and a maximum decline of 9% observed [1][2] Group 2 - Home Depot's business model is challenged by its reliance on global sourcing, particularly from China, Canada, and Mexico, which exposes it to trade interruptions and tariffs [2] - The company has recorded 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns occurring roughly 45% of the time [5] - The median of the 9 positive returns is 1.7%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -2.5% [5] Group 3 - For event-driven traders, historical patterns can provide an advantage, allowing for preparation ahead of earnings or response to post-release movements [2] - A less risky approach involves examining the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identifying pairs with the highest correlation for trading strategies [3] - The performance of peers may influence Home Depot's post-earnings reaction, with pricing potentially beginning prior to the earnings announcement [6]