Economic Growth - Saudi Arabia's economy experienced its fastest expansion since early 2023 in the third quarter [1] - The growth was driven by increased oil production and substantial state investments in non-oil sectors [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock futures are rebounding as traders increase interest rate bets following comments from Fed Chair Powell, alongside a strong start to the corporate earnings season [1][4] - Gold prices have reached a new record of $4,200 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong demand [2][21] - The Dow is expected to open about half a percent higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.75% and NASDAQ leading gains [5][4] Group 2: Bank Earnings - Morgan Stanley reported a 35% increase in trading revenue and a 44% boost in investment banking fees, while Bank of America saw a 43% increase in investment banking fees to $2 billion [2][7][9] - Bank of America also reported an 8% rise in client trading to $5.3 billion, indicating strong investor activity [8] - Both banks' strong earnings are attributed to a resurgence in deal-making and a record high rally in equity markets [11][34] Group 3: ASML Earnings - ASML reported strong demand driven by AI infrastructure spending, with bookings of approximately $6.3 billion for the quarter [3][14] - The company faces risks related to US export restrictions on chip sales to China, but it remains optimistic about future sales [3][15] - ASML's stock price increased over 4% in pre-market trading, reflecting positive market sentiment [13] Group 4: Trade Tensions - President Trump has threatened to end cooking oil purchases from China amid escalating trade tensions, which could impact US soybean exports [17][18] - China has not purchased any American soybeans recently, a significant drop from $12.8 billion worth last year [18][19] - The ongoing trade spat raises questions about the future of US-China trade talks and potential meetings between leaders [20] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Gold has seen a 60% increase year-to-date, with predictions of reaching $5,000 by 2026 and possibly $10,000 by the end of the decade [22][24] - Silver prices have risen 75% year-to-date, driven by speculative inflows and a smaller market size compared to gold [26][27] - Goldman Sachs notes a supply crunch in the silver market, contributing to price increases [27] Group 6: Corporate Developments - Stellantis announced a $13 billion investment in the US, aiming to create over 5,000 jobs and increase domestic production by 50% [29] - Dollar Tree projected a compound annual growth rate of up to 15% in earnings per share over the next three years [30] - Papa John's shares rose following a reported bid from Apollo Global to take the company private at $64 per share, valuing it around $2 billion [32]

Market Analysis and Bitcoin Cycle - Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, with the lower end of the support range presenting buying opportunities [1] - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, driven by the halving, may now be a five-year cycle, potentially peaking in Q2 2026 [2] - The Bitcoin cycle is correlated with the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) business cycle, a key indicator of US economic activity [3][4][5] - The current elongated business cycle, unlike previous cycles, is attributed to the extension of debt maturity from four to five years in 2021-2022 [8][9] - The average weighted maturity of the debt is 5.4 years, suggesting the ISM should peak by 2026 [10] - Despite the ISM remaining below 50, indicating economic contraction, any dips in Bitcoin price are considered buying opportunities, similar to patterns observed in 2015-16 and 2019-20 [11][12] Altcoin and AI Investment Opportunities - A new BitTensor fund has been launched, focusing on TOAO and BitTensor subnet alpha tokens, highlighting the potential of AI-related altcoins [12][13] - BitTensor subnets are providing AI models and companion apps at significantly reduced costs compared to traditional services like AWS [14] - SUI is positioned to dominate agentic commerce, particularly in AI-driven transactions, and has partnered with Google on AP2, an agentic payments framework [16][17] Swissborg (Borg) Token Buyback Program - Swissborg is using 50% of trading fees to buy back the Borg token, creating buy pressure [20][21] - Based on the previous week's stats, this equates to $400,000 weekly, $1.6 million monthly, and $20 million annually in buy pressure [21] - The buyback program could potentially pump Borg by 50% in a single week, given current liquidity and price impact [22]

Market Performance - Japanese equity benchmarks closed at a record high for a third time this week [1] Economic Indicators - Faster-than-expected economic expansion contributed to the record high [1]

Global Economic Trends - The former first world is largely becoming the descending world [2] - Much of the former third world is now the ascending world [2] - Edelman's numbers correlate with GDP figures and visible improvements in countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, and China [1] Data Reliability - There are potential concerns regarding the accuracy of Edelman's numbers for specific regions, such as Nigeria and Kenya [1]

Economic Growth - Mexico's economy expanded faster than expected in the second quarter [1]

Economic Outlook - Economies are not perpetually stable, expansions eventually end [1] - Prolonged expansions lead to increased risk-taking by politicians, investors, and companies, accelerating the downturn [1] - The global economy's resilience is diminishing [1]

Economic Performance - Singapore's economy expanded in the second quarter [1] - The expansion avoided a technical recession [1] Industry Dynamics - Rise in construction activity contributed to the expansion [1] - Strong exports supported the economic growth [1]

Monetary Policy - The ECB should consider further interest rate cuts if economic growth underperforms expectations and causes excessive disinflation [1] Economic Outlook - Economic expansion falling short of forecasts could excessively drag down inflation [1]

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The bill aims to provide tax relief for working and middle-class families to improve affordability [2] - The bill intends to secure the southern border, build the wall, and provide resources for deportations [3] - The bill seeks to open up the country to energy exploration to increase base load power on the grid [3] - The bill aims to expand the economy and increase investment in the United States, leading to wage growth [8][9] - The goal is to grow the economy and get more people into the workforce to reduce the burden on the federal government [10] - Tax policy is viewed as a means of raising revenue, with the expectation that this bill will expand the economy and increase revenue [12][13] Healthcare & Social Programs - The bill strengthens work requirements in Medicaid and SNAP, aligning with Clinton-era policies [4] - The bill prioritizes Medicaid benefits for poor families, children, the elderly, and pregnant women over able-bodied adults without children [6] - The bill aims to incentivize able-bodied individuals to enter the workforce and pay for their own benefits [6] Deficit & Borrowing - The US government needs to slow down its borrowing to avoid rising bond rates, which would increase borrowing rates for families and businesses [10][11]