Economic Overview - The recent government shutdown has created a significant data gap, complicating economic assessments and Federal Reserve decisions [1][2][10][11] - The return of government workers is expected to lead to a flood of economic data, which is crucial for market and policy analysis [2][12] Employment - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly jobs report is a key indicator of the labor market and household earnings, essential for forecasting economic activity [3] - The August jobs report indicated job gains fell to 22,000, missing the consensus of 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The labor market's stability is under scrutiny, especially with rising unemployment risks highlighted by the Federal Reserve [6] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical measure of price stability, with the latest report showing a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, driven by energy costs, while Core CPI also cooled to 3.0% [4][7] - The Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions is hindered by the lack of recent CPI data, particularly as inflation pressures may be easing [7][10] Retail Sales - Retail sales data is vital as consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the economy, with retail sales representing nearly one-third of that [5] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, rising 0.6% month-over-month, indicating underlying consumer momentum despite concerns over rising credit card debt and dwindling savings [7] Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - GDP is a key quarterly indicator of economic activity, with the second quarter showing a real GDP increase at an annual rate of 3.8%, surpassing the forecast of 3.3% [8][14] - The upcoming third-quarter GDP estimate will provide insights into economic momentum prior to the shutdown [14] Private Data Insights - Despite the shutdown, private data collection continued, suggesting a weak economic forecast, which may impact the interpretation of upcoming reports [9] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's recent decisions have been made without complete data, leading to a reactionary stance rather than a proactive approach [10][12] - The delay in data reporting increases the risk of policy errors as the Fed navigates a complex economic landscape [12]

Market Cycle Analysis - The crypto market has historically followed the business cycle, potentially extending into 2026, suggesting a prolonged bull market [2] - Macro analysts suggest the crypto market cycle is no longer solely based on Bitcoin halving but correlates with the economic cycle, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Index [6][7] - The ISM, an indicator of economic activity, has historically correlated with Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms, but this pattern has recently broken [9][10] - An extended debt refinancing cycle, with average debt maturity increasing to approximately 54 years due to the pandemic, may be extending the liquidity and crypto cycles [12] Liquidity and Economic Indicators - Some analysts argue that economic indicators like the ISM are misleading and have unclear correlation with global liquidity [16] - Global liquidity, measured by Global M2, has risen, but Bitcoin's price has flatlined, weakening the correlation between the two [18] - Central bank policies and debt refinancing challenges could lead to a contraction in global liquidity, potentially impacting the crypto market [20][21] - Economic data may be deceptive due to factors like inflation and unemployment rates, making the economy appear stronger than it is [26][27] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The crypto market is expected to continue a gradual upward trend, mirroring the overall economy [40] - Assuming a recession is avoided, Q4 2025 is projected to be bullish, with Bitcoin potentially reaching its cycle top, followed by Ethereum and altcoins approximately one month later [47][48] - The current crypto market cycle differs from previous cycles due to less loose monetary policy, more mature regulatory frameworks, and different patterns of retail participation [44][45] - AI-related ventures have significantly contributed to economic growth, particularly in the US, impacting sectors like chip manufacturing and infrastructure [36][37]

Economic Indicators - The podcast episode discusses three economic indicators that may provide insights into future economic trends [1] Podcast Information - The podcast "Everybody's Business" features @kylascan, @svaneksmith, and @chafkin [1]

A few economic indicators this morning suggested confidence among UK business and consumers isn't as bad as had been predicted. But results of a by-election are a lot worse for Labour. Get The Readout with @AllegraStratton https://t.co/4ybFtFarbj ...

On this episode of the Everybody's Business podcast, @kylascan joins @svaneksmith and @chafkin to discuss the three economic indicators that might tell us where things are heading https://t.co/i51n7zR9iH https://t.co/R3rnjuhCJT ...

Economic Outlook - The report analyzes how China's latest economic data will influence short-term policies [1] Bank Analysis - Mitsubishi UFJ Bank provides insights on the potential policy responses based on the economic data [1]

Market Sentiment - Investors sought positive economic indicators due to the absence of strong data or optimistic commentary [1] - The market received the desired positive indicators on Tuesday [1]

Market Sentiment - Initial trends indicate a moderately higher open for Wall Street, driven by easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which is likely to boost investor sentiment [1] - Major U.S. indices finished positively on Friday, with the Dow up 238.37 points (0.5%), Nasdaq up 117.44 points (0.5%), and S&P 500 up 34.94 points (0.5%) [2] Economic Indicators - The Leading Indicators for September are expected to show a decline of 0.3%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.5% [3] - Treasury Bill auctions for both three-month and six-month maturities are scheduled, indicating ongoing government financing activities [3][4] Company Earnings - A number of significant companies, including Coca-Cola, General Motors, Netflix, AT&T, IBM, Tesla, and Intel, are set to report their quarterly results this week, which may attract investor attention [1]

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

CME is planning to debut financial contracts tied to both sports games and economic indicators by the end of the year, according to sources https://t.co/GBA4WvfzFx ...