中国9月RatingDog制造业PMI录得51.2，预期50.2，前值50.5。中国9月RatingDog服务业PMI录得52.9，预期52.6，前值53.0。RatingDog综合PMI录得52.5，前值51.9。 https://t.co/chEYrlnkbU外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):中国9月官方制造业PMI为49.8，预期49.7，前值49.4；非制造业PMI为50.0，预期50.2，前值50.3；综合PMI为50.6，前值50.5。 https://t.co/2rafZ7dlfa ...

Company Earnings - Carnival (NYSE: CCL) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.43 per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $1.32 per share [2] - The company also reported quarterly sales of $8.153 billion, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $8.101 billion [2] Stock Movements - Tilray Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) shares increased by 40% to $1.6050 following a video from President Donald Trump promoting cannabis health benefits [8] - Merus N.V. (NASDAQ: MRUS) shares surged 36% to $93.93 after Genmab agreed to acquire the company for $97 per share [8] - Better Home & Finance Holding Company (NASDAQ: BETR) shares rose 17% to $62.23 after announcing a $75 million at-the-market offering for Class A shares [8] - KALA BIO, Inc. (NASDAQ: KALA) shares plummeted 89% to $2.15 after failing to meet primary endpoints in a clinical trial [8] - MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ: MLTX) shares fell 89% to $6.69 due to a failed trial [8] - IO Biotech, Inc. (NASDAQ: IOBT) shares dropped 78% to $0.3501 following an update after a pre-BLA meeting with the FDA [8] Economic Indicators - U.S. pending home sales surged by 4% in August, marking the sharpest gain in five months, compared to a 0.4% decline in the previous month [10] - The Dallas Fed's general business activity index for Texas manufacturing declined to -8.7 in September from -1.7 in the previous month [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index decreased by 4.5 basis points to 98.42, primarily due to rising equity prices [1] - The real GS US Financial Conditions Index also fell by 5.6 basis points to 98.00 [1] - The Q3 GDP forecast stands at +2.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) [7] - The US MAP index of economic surprises increased to +0.25 [9] - The preliminary September Current Activity Indicator is at +2.1%, unchanged from August [13] Economic Indicators - The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index and the real (inflation-adjusted) FCI are key indicators of financial conditions [1][4] - The report tracks changes in various economic indicators, including GDP growth and economic surprises, which are essential for assessing the economic landscape [7][9] - The report highlights the importance of the Current Activity Indicator as a measure of economic performance [13] Financial Conditions - The report indicates a tightening in financial conditions, as evidenced by the changes in the GS Nominal FCI and its components [6] - The report provides a detailed analysis of the components affecting the financial conditions, including Fed Funds and credit spreads [6] GDP Tracking - The report includes a daily advance GDP tracking estimate, showing the expected growth trajectory for the upcoming quarters [8] - The tracking estimates are crucial for understanding the economic outlook and potential investment opportunities [8] Labor Market Insights - The report features a Labor Market Tracker, which provides insights into job growth and unemployment rates [19] - The Job Growth Tracker indicates changes in nonfarm payroll employment, which is vital for assessing labor market health [19] Inflation Tracking - The Core Inflation Tracker is included to monitor inflation trends, which are critical for investment decisions [33] - The report emphasizes the significance of inflation metrics in evaluating economic stability and growth prospects [33]

Industry Overview - Biotech and healthcare stocks are responding positively to clinical trial progress, regulatory developments, and economic indicators, particularly with the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 2025, which is expected to improve funding conditions for capital-intensive sectors like biotechnology [1] Company Highlights - **Sonnet BioTherapeutics Holdings Inc. (SONN)**: Shares increased by 11.19% in after-hours trading, reaching $7.85 after a regular session close of $7.06. The stock has a 52-week range of $1.08 - $19.30. The company expanded clinical evaluation of its lead candidate, SON-1010, for ovarian cancer, reporting a strong safety profile and a partial response at the highest dose level [2][3] - **Akari Therapeutics Plc (AKTX)**: Shares surged 11.58% in after-hours trading to $0.8855 after closing at $0.7936. The stock has a 52-week range of $0.5710 - $3.8500. The increase follows a provisional patent filing for its antibody-drug conjugate platform aimed at cancer treatment, which is expected to enhance its intellectual property and support the development of first-in-class ADCs [4][5] - **Safety Shot Inc. (SHOT)**: Shares rose 9.75% in after-hours trading to $0.3333 after closing at $0.3037. The company announced a strategic refresh of its Board of Directors with three new members to strengthen its capabilities in digital assets and operations [6][7] - **Reviva Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc. (RVPH)**: Shares climbed 10.09% in after-hours trading to $0.4451 after closing at $0.4043. The stock has a 52-week range of $0.3000 - $4.2800. The price movement follows a revised analyst rating maintaining a "Speculative Buy" while lowering the price target from $14.00 to $7.00. Reviva's lead candidate, brilaroxazine, is being developed for multiple neuropsychiatric and respiratory indications [8][9][10] - **Cognition Therapeutics Inc. (CGTX)**: Shares rose 7.48% in after-hours trading to $1.58 after closing down at $1.47. The company is focused on its lead candidate, Zervimesine, for Alzheimer's disease, and recently closed a $30 million offering to support its Phase 3 development [12][13]

Economic Indicators - Economic indicators are signaling concerns about employment and inflation [1] Financial Markets - Financial markets are showing strong positive performance [1] Discrepancy - There is a significant disconnect between economic indicators and financial market performance [1]

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has been struggling for some years now with low response rates to surveys that underlie key economic indicators https://t.co/MNWRuZUsCQ ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for August is 49.4, slightly below the expected 49.5 and marginally higher than the previous value of 49.3 [1] - This indicates a continued contraction in manufacturing activity, as a PMI below 50 suggests contraction [1] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3, matching the expected value and slightly exceeding the previous 50.1 [1] - This suggests a slight expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1] Overall Economic Activity - The composite PMI for August is 50.5, surpassing the previous 50.2 [1] - This indicates a marginal improvement in overall business activity across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [1]

Economic Policy & Research - UK policy making is being undermined by a deepening crisis in the country's official indicators [1] - British economists warned that academic research vital for UK policy making is being undermined [1]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K, exceeding expectations by 10K and increasing by 11K from the previous week, marking the highest level since June [2] - Continuing Claims approached 2 million, reported at 1.972 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - The Philly Fed Manufacturing survey showed a negative reading of -0.3, significantly lower than the expected 7.0 and the previous month's 15.9, indicating a decline in manufacturing output [3] - New Orders fell to -1.9, a decrease of 20 points month over month, while Shipments remained positive at 4.5 [3] Company Earnings - Walmart reported mixed Q2 results with earnings of 68 cents per share, slightly below consensus estimates and only a penny above the previous year's figure, while revenues reached $177.4 billion, surpassing estimates by 1% [4] - Walmart revised its revenue guidance higher for the full fiscal year, despite a 2% drop in shares ahead of the market open [4] Market Expectations - Flash S&P Services and Manufacturing PMI for August are anticipated to cool slightly, with Services expected at 55.0 and Manufacturing at 49.5, just below the growth threshold [5] - Existing Home Sales for July are projected to decrease to 3.91 million annualized units from 3.93 million the prior month [6] - U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) are expected to improve to -0.1% for July from -0.3% in June, indicating a potential recovery from the lowest levels in over 10 years [6] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Earnings season continues with companies like Zoom Communications, Workday, Ross Stores, and Intuit expected to report quarterly earnings, with Intuit projected to achieve a year-over-year earnings growth of 33% [7]