From @WSJopinion: Israel’s economic resilience should be attributed not to indifference but to resolve in the face of adversity—and to a remarkable potential for growth, writes Nimrod Sapir https://t.co/x0roxlpv7K ...

Economic Impact of Tariffs - The economic fallout from Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements has been milder than expected, with no immediate signs of empty store shelves or significant inflation increases [2][3] - Recent job data revisions indicate a downward trend, with May and June job gains revised to under 20,000, while the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2% in July [3][4] - The stability observed in economic indicators does not equate to strength, and experts caution against assuming this stability will continue [4][5] Tariff Implementation and Corporate Resilience - Tariffs have not been implemented as aggressively as initially announced, with many exemptions and delays introduced [5][6] - Strong corporate balance sheets have provided a buffer against the economic impact of tariffs, making the U.S. economy more shock-resistant [6] - The effects of tariffs take time to materialize, as companies like Rock City Coffee and Procter & Gamble have begun raising prices due to increased costs [7][9] Corporate Responses to Tariffs - Companies like General Motors and Ford are absorbing tariff costs, leading to significant financial impacts, including projected losses of $4-5 billion for GM by 2025 [9][10] - The current tariff policy is seen as reactive and inconsistent, disadvantaging many American companies while failing to align with their economic realities [10][11] Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Despite the tariff impacts, equity prices remain strong, with companies absorbing costs or passing them on to consumers [12][13] - The market's response may not be rational, with signs of froth in credit markets, emphasizing the need for selectivity in investment [13][14] Company Performance Highlights - Amazon reported strong Q2 performance with earnings per share of $1.68, revenue of $167.7 billion, and AWS revenue growth of 17% [16][18] - Google maintained a stable search engine market share and reported a 12% increase in search revenue, alongside strong performance in its cloud and YouTube segments [19][21] - Novo Nordisk faced challenges due to competition from illegal alternatives to its weight loss drug, leading to lowered sales growth guidance [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Despite various adverse factors affecting global economic development, Egypt's economic outlook remains resilient according to Standard Chartered Bank's report [1] Economic Stability - The report highlights ongoing macroeconomic stability, strong foreign exchange inflows, and significant investment commitments as evidence of confidence in Egypt's economic prospects [1] GDP Growth Forecast - The current GDP growth forecast for Egypt for the fiscal year 2025/2026 is maintained at 4.5%, emphasizing the critical role of private sector investment in the country's economic recovery [1]

Market Outlook & Economic Growth - HSBC raises S&P 500 target to 6400, with a bull case of 7000 driven by AI optimism [2] - AI is seen as the primary driver of US economic growth, as consumer spending and labor market gains slow down [3] - The market may be adjusting to a slower pace of economic and services growth [4] - Earnings growth is concentrated in S&P 100 and Nasdaq companies, particularly in industrial sectors related to grid and data center build-outs [5] - Cloud computing and data center related activities are experiencing significant growth [6] Interest Rates & Fed Policy - Potential Fed rate cuts could revitalize the housing market and boost consumer spending [7] - The market is in a historically choppy period, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's actions [9] - The market is awaiting signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts in September, which could stimulate the housing market [11] - There's debate on whether the Fed will cut rates due to concerns about inflation remaining above target, even with a potentially weakening labor market [14] - Some believe the Fed will prioritize caution and cut rates at the first sign of labor market weakness [15] Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - August is typically a volatile month for market performance [10][12] - Small position sizing is recommended in the current choppy market environment due to uncertainty about Fed rate cuts [13] - A potential 5-7% pullback from the high is anticipated, possibly triggered by weaker-than-expected ISM services data [19] - The market's reaction to upcoming jobless claims data will be important [20]

_Before trading options, please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options here: https://www.theocc.com/Company-Information/Documents-and-Archives/Options-Disclosure-Document_ Tony discusses economic resilience, steady rates, and labor market deterioration. He then shares a trade idea for a data storage solutions company and looks back to a recent trade for an automotive company. Questions? Drop them below 👇 and we’ll reply right in the comments. - For more about In the Money: https://www.fideli ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net income of $18.3 million or $0.67 per diluted share, with a return on average assets of 1% and return on average equity of 13.04% [12] - Net interest income increased by 3.6% quarter over quarter to $59.8 million, with net interest margin expanding by 13 basis points to 3.44% [13] - Total other operating income was $13 million, reflecting a $1.9 million increase quarter over quarter [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The loan portfolio slightly declined to $5.29 billion, with growth in construction and consumer loans, while other categories saw declines [10] - Total deposits were $6.54 billion, also showing a slight decline from the prior quarter, but with a favorable shift towards noninterest-bearing deposits [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hawaii's construction industry showed solid performance with completed construction reaching $14 billion in 2024, with steady growth expected in 2025 [6] - Visitor arrivals in Hawaii were up 2.8% year to date, with total visitor spending increasing by 6.5% compared to the prior year [7] - The unemployment rate in Hawaii remained low at 2.8%, outperforming the national rate of 4.1% [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deepen customer relationships and grow market share in Hawaii, select Mainland markets, and Asia, targeting low single-digit growth for loans and deposits in 2025 [10] - The focus remains on managing the cost of funds while growing core deposits in a competitive environment [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for Hawaii's economy, acknowledging potential headwinds but emphasizing sound fundamental economic drivers [9] - The company is confident in its core business environment and sees opportunities ahead despite a muted loan growth in the first half of 2025 [10] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate was 23.5% in the second quarter, expected to remain between 22% and 24% [14] - The company repurchased approximately 103,000 shares of common stock at a total cost of $2.6 million [14] - A quarterly cash dividend of $0.27 per share was declared, payable on September 15 [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Growth trends and client demand - Management noted that loan growth was muted in the first half but expects a robust pipeline and strong net loan growth in July, contributing to revenue growth in the second half [25][27] Question: Competition in the market - Competition remains average in the Hawaii banking market, with no significant changes in strategy from competitors [30] Question: Non-interest bearing deposit growth - The company is focused on growing low-cost core deposits through relationship management and prospecting, which has shown early success [34] Question: Expense run rate and investments - The near-term guidance for total other operating expenses is projected to be between $43.5 million and $44.5 million per quarter, excluding one-time impacts [37] Question: Credit quality and concerns - Management indicated that the uptick in credit metrics is not systemic and that expected losses remain within risk appetite, with no anticipated losses from downgraded loans [40][41]

Economic Resilience - India's economy shows resilience despite global uncertainties [1] - Resilience is attributed to a robust agricultural season [1] - Strong momentum in the services sector contributes to resilience [1] - Modest industrial growth also supports the economy [1] Reserve Bank of India's Assessment - The Reserve Bank of India acknowledges the economic resilience [1]

Market Resilience - Firms demonstrate improved ability to handle shocks, ensuring market functionality despite political instability [1] - Governments provide unprecedented levels of economic protection [1]

Consumer Spending Trends - Bank of America Institute data indicates a 2% increase in debit and credit card spending in June [1] - While consumer spending rebounded in June, it didn't fully offset earlier declines, suggesting a cooling trend [2] - Lower-income households are primarily driving the pullback in spending, while higher-income household spending accelerated by 1.2% [5] - Discretionary travel spending is declining, but restaurant spending shows a dichotomy, with fewer households dining out but spending more per transaction [6][7] Income and Wage Growth - Higher-income households experienced accelerated after-tax wage growth, nearing 3%, for the third consecutive month [9] - Lower-income households saw decelerated after-tax wage growth, increasing by 1.6% compared to 1.8% previously [10] Credit Card Usage - Younger generations entering a challenging labor market are a focal point regarding credit card usage [11]

Labor Market - Non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding the forecast of 125,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [1] Inflation and Consumer Spending - CPI report indicated inflation at 2.4% year-over-year in May, with core inflation steady at 2.8% [2] - Headline retail sales dropped 0.9% month-over-month, a sharper decline than expected [3] - Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month, indicating a slowdown [3] Economic Outlook - The US economy continues to show resilience despite some moderation in retail sales [1][4] - Analysts believe the May data does not fundamentally challenge the narrative of a resilient economy, at least not yet [4] - The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this resilience can last, with inflation risks and policy changes ahead [4]