Market Trends & Government Shutdown Impact - The 10-year yield experienced a slight decrease amidst the second day of the federal government's partial shutdown [1] - The bond market is focused on the health of the labor market, as indicated by the ADP data [2] - Weak labor data potentially implies a more aggressive Fed easing [2] Bond Yields & Technical Analysis - The lowest 10-year yield close since the Fed eased on the 17th is 409% [4] - A close below virtually 400% in early April for the 10-year yield would bring in more buying, pushing yields lower [4] Fed Funds Futures & Interest Rate Expectations - Fed fund futures for the October meeting decreased from 101% to 95%, indicating a slight reduction in the intensity of expectations for a rate cut [3] Currency Market - The dollar index is firming, showing a different trend compared to the yield charts [5] - A close above 99 for the dollar index would be considered technically significant [5]

Core Insights - The bond market is reacting to the partial government shutdown and recent labor market data, particularly the ADP jobs report, which indicates a weaker labor market and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy [1][2][3] Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year yield is currently at a critical level, with the lowest yield close since the Fed's easing on September 17 being 4.09%. A close below this level could lead to increased buying and lower yields [4] - The yield curve is flattening, with two-year yields slightly higher, suggesting a mixed sentiment in the market regarding future Fed actions [2][3] Currency Market Insights - The dollar index is showing strength, contrasting with the yield trends. A close above 99 would be technically significant for the dollar [5]

Market Reaction to Economic Data - The market initially reacted strongly to the weak ADP report, the weakest since March 2023, and a negative revision to the previous month's report [2] - The dollar index did not react as strongly to the weak jobs data, indicating a mixed market response [4] Bond Market and Yields - Two-year Treasury yields dropped more aggressively than 10-year yields [3] - Two-year yields were down approximately 7 basis points, while 10-year yields were down about half that amount [3] - The yield curve is steepening because short rates have dropped significantly [6] - If the market closed at the current levels, it would be at a two-week low yield close in twos and a one-week low yield close in tens [6] Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The market has upgraded the percentages for Federal Reserve easing at the remaining meetings this year [5] - The market is pricing in slightly more than 25 basis points of easing at the next meeting, technically over 100% [5] Labor Market and Inflation - Weak jobs data underscores labor market weakness, which the Fed has highlighted in relation to inflationary issues [4] - The drop in the two-year yield reflects the importance of labor market weakness to the Fed's current strategy [4]

Economic Indicators - The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey for September unexpectedly fell by -6.9 to -8.7, weaker than expectations of an increase to -1.0 [1] - US pending home sales for August rose by +4.0% month-over-month, significantly stronger than expectations of +0.4% and marking the largest increase in five months [2] - The S&P companies are expected to post +6.9% earnings growth in Q3, up from +6.7% as of the end of May, with over 22% of companies providing guidance expected to beat analysts' expectations [8] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes experienced a rally, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100 reaching record highs last week, driven by strong earnings growth and Fed easing measures [4] - On Monday, the S&P 500 Index closed up +0.26%, the Dow Jones closed up +0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 closed up +0.44% [6] - Chipmakers led technology stocks higher, with GlobalFoundries and Micron Technology closing up more than +3% [14] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield fell by -3 bp to 4.14%, influenced by expectations of weak labor market news prompting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates [5][11] - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate fell to a 1.5-week low of 2.357%, supporting Fed policy and T-note prices [11] Corporate Developments - Merus NV closed up more than +35% after Genmab announced a deal to acquire the company for $8 billion or $97 per share [16] - Electronic Arts closed up more than +4% after a consortium acquired the company for $55 billion or $210 per share [18] - Western Digital closed up more than +9% after an upgrade from Rosenblatt Securities, raising its target on the stock to $125 from $90 [16] Sector Performance - Energy producers retreated after WTI crude oil prices fell by more than -3%, with companies like Diamondback Energy and Devon Energy closing down more than -3% [15] - Rising corporate earnings expectations provide a bullish backdrop for stocks, with significant positive guidance from S&P 500 companies [8]

Market Analysis & Trends - The market experienced mixed results following the Fed rate cut, with indices closing lower on the day of the cut, except for the Russell [1] - There's an ongoing debate about whether the recent moves in the Russell 2000 are a catch-up play, given the outperformance of other major indices this year [4] - The market's high valuations are considered more palatable in a rate-cutting environment, although current levels are near historic highs [8] - The market is in a precarious position but supported by tailwinds like the AI revolution and potential policy alignment [10] Small Cap Stocks - Small cap companies are more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy due to their reliance on short-term rates [5] - Small cap value stocks are estimated to trade at a 15% to 20% discount to their intrinsic value, with Fed easing potentially serving as a catalyst for convergence [6] - Small caps are viewed as a procyclical trade consistent with a bullish market mood [13] Investment Strategies & Sector Outlook - Healthcare is considered a defensive sector that has lagged behind despite strong fundamentals, making it an attractive investment [13][14] - Gold is currently considered expensive, with differing opinions on whether to buy, despite some price targets suggesting it could reach $4,000 [15] - Dollar cost averaging and buying the dip are recommended strategies in the current market environment [11]

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced a modest decline, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping from record highs as investors assess trade and economic updates [1] - U.S.-China trade talks are reportedly becoming more productive, with Treasury Secretary expressing confidence in a potential deal [1] - August retail sales exceeded expectations, but did not alter predictions for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market expectations remain high for a total of 75 basis points of Fed easing by year-end, according to CME FedWatch tool [1] Company Updates - Amazon's price target was raised by Truist to $270 per share from $250, with credit card data indicating North American revenue tracking $1 billion above consensus estimates [1] - Analysts noted Amazon's conservative forecasting history, which may lead to a conservative outlook for the upcoming quarter [1] - Goldman Sachs received a price target increase from Wells Fargo, raised to $855 from $785, benefiting from strong capital markets activity and demand [1] - Microsoft announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend, aligning with its five-year average, and has over $55 billion remaining in its share repurchase authorization [1]

Market Overview - The current IPO market is showing healthy performance, with a more stable environment compared to 2021, indicating a positive outlook for the market [1][2] - The anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts is contributing to investor confidence, suggesting a favorable climate for IPOs [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points, with indications that this is a pivotal moment for monetary policy [3][4] - There is a belief that the Fed will remain data-driven in its approach, avoiding explicit signals about future rate cuts [5][7] - Inflation remains a concern, but it appears to be reasonably contained, allowing the Fed to focus on economic growth without rushing into aggressive rate cuts [5][10] Economic Indicators - Recent job adjustments, such as the 900,000 figure, are seen as a signal that the economy is approaching a point where rate cuts may be appropriate [4] - The flattening of the yield curve is viewed positively, as it suggests a healthier alignment of mortgage rates and overall economic stability [9][10] - The focus is shifting towards ensuring economic growth and avoiding a recession, with previous fears of an engineered recession not materializing [11]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) recovered from a 1.5-month low, rising by +0.36% due to higher T-note yields strengthening interest rate differentials and sparking short covering in the dollar [1] - Preliminary benchmark payroll revisions indicated a loss of -911,000 jobs through March 2025, exceeding expectations of -700,000, signaling a weaker US labor market [3] - Markets are now pricing in a 9% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, with a 75% chance of a second -25 basis point cut at the October 28-29 meeting, leading to an overall -73 basis point cut in the federal funds rate by year-end [4] Group 2 - The EUR/USD fell by -0.50% due to a rebound in the dollar, with the euro pressured by a significant decline in French manufacturing production [5] - French July manufacturing production decreased by -1.7% month-over-month, worse than the expected -1.2% and marking the largest decline in 14 months [6]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has recovered from a 1.5-month low, increasing by +0.08% due to higher T-note yields strengthening interest rate differentials and prompting short covering in the dollar [1] - Preliminary benchmark payroll revisions indicated a loss of -911,000 jobs in the US through March 2025, which is a wider loss than the expected -700,000, signaling a weaker labor market [3] - The markets are now pricing in a 10% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, a significant shift from previous expectations of zero chance [4] Group 2 - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.21% from a 1.5-month high due to the dollar's rebound, compounded by a significant decline in French manufacturing production [5] - French manufacturing production for July decreased by -1.7% month-over-month, which was worse than the expected decline of -1.2% and marked the largest drop in 14 months [6]

Let's bring in Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist Lzanne Saunders. Um, man, Lisanne, you I mean, for the final week of August, markets being handed a lot of large questions. Um, in general, how do you think capital is responding to even, you know, set aside the commerce secretar's comments this morning, but the president just now weighed in on Cracker Barrel's logo.He's he's had say on what how Intel and Nvidia and Apple and even Coke should manage their investments in their product lines. Do you t ...