Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) recovered from a 1.5-month low, rising by +0.36% due to higher T-note yields strengthening interest rate differentials and sparking short covering in the dollar [1] - Preliminary benchmark payroll revisions indicated a loss of -911,000 jobs through March 2025, exceeding expectations of -700,000, signaling a weaker US labor market [3] - Markets are now pricing in a 9% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, with a 75% chance of a second -25 basis point cut at the October 28-29 meeting, leading to an overall -73 basis point cut in the federal funds rate by year-end [4] Group 2 - The EUR/USD fell by -0.50% due to a rebound in the dollar, with the euro pressured by a significant decline in French manufacturing production [5] - French July manufacturing production decreased by -1.7% month-over-month, worse than the expected -1.2% and marking the largest decline in 14 months [6]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) has recovered from a 1.5-month low, increasing by +0.08% due to higher T-note yields strengthening interest rate differentials and prompting short covering in the dollar [1] - Preliminary benchmark payroll revisions indicated a loss of -911,000 jobs in the US through March 2025, which is a wider loss than the expected -700,000, signaling a weaker labor market [3] - The markets are now pricing in a 10% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 16-17, a significant shift from previous expectations of zero chance [4] Group 2 - The euro (EUR/USD) fell by -0.21% from a 1.5-month high due to the dollar's rebound, compounded by a significant decline in French manufacturing production [5] - French manufacturing production for July decreased by -1.7% month-over-month, which was worse than the expected decline of -1.2% and marked the largest drop in 14 months [6]

Let's bring in Charles Schwab, chief investment strategist Lzanne Saunders. Um, man, Lisanne, you I mean, for the final week of August, markets being handed a lot of large questions. Um, in general, how do you think capital is responding to even, you know, set aside the commerce secretar's comments this morning, but the president just now weighed in on Cracker Barrel's logo.He's he's had say on what how Intel and Nvidia and Apple and even Coke should manage their investments in their product lines. Do you t ...

Fundstrat head of research and Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee, also a CNBC contributor, joins me here. Tom, good to see you. Great to see you.So, we have this rally that's now extending uh probably beyond what most were positioned for, but it started in a moment of peak uncertainty. Yes. And even when we were in peak uncertainty, a lot of us were saying that's kind of usually forward-looking bullish.But are we now getting to a point where we have finally feasted on all of the uncertainty and now we have a lo ...

Market Outlook - CNBC's Fed survey participants show growing optimism about the outlook for markets, anticipating a bounce back in the economy and stocks in 2026 [1] - The survey projects the S&P 500 to reach 6133 by year-end, a 15% increase, and 6625 in 2026, nearly a 10% increase from yesterday's close [2] - Equity markets are near all-time highs, anticipating certainty on tariffs, extension of the 2017 tax cuts, deregulation, AI productivity, and Fed easing, potentially leading to economic reacceleration in the second half into 2026 [2][3] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The survey indicates no expectation for a rate cut next month, with the funds rate remaining above the long run neutral rate into 2026 [4][5] - The survey builds in two rate cuts for this year and one for next year [4][5] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - 82% of respondents believe the tax bill will increase the deficit [3] - Opinions are divided on the tax bill's impact on growth, with 29% more optimistic, 29% less optimistic, and 43% believing it doesn't matter [3][4] Inflation and Tariffs - A 43% to 32% margin believes tariffs will be one-time price increases rather than creating broader inflation [6] - 61% of respondents anticipate tariff inflation is yet to come in the months ahead [6]