Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing a boost due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate cuts on Wednesday [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of rate cuts is influencing investor sentiment positively, leading to increased stock prices [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision, which is expected to impact various sectors [1] - Analysts suggest that a rate cut could stimulate economic growth and enhance corporate earnings [1]

Group 1 - Coinbase reports a significant increase in global liquidity as December begins, with the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut rising to 92% by December 4, which may support a rebound in risk assets [1] - The custom global M2 money supply index from Coinbase indicates a recovery trend extending into late 2025, suggesting that a softer dollar environment could enhance broader market momentum [1][3] - The report highlights that Bitcoin fell more than three standard deviations below its 90-day trend in November, while US equities remained closer to their norms, indicating potential undervaluation of Bitcoin [3][4] Group 2 - Long-term holders of Bitcoin exhibited a rare period of coin distribution, and digital asset products traded below net asset value for the first time this year, signaling a potential recovery in December [4] - Analyst Ted Pillows notes that the US 10-year bond yield is poised for its largest weekly gain since June 2025, with yields above 4%, which may not bode well for risk-on assets despite anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - Data from Altcoin Vector indicates a divergence between stablecoin dominance and altcoin performance, with signs of stablecoin strength fatigue and altcoins holding firm, suggesting a possible market shift back to higher-risk assets once Bitcoin stabilizes [5][6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility recently, diverging from its historically favorable seasonal trends, yet it has stabilized above $90,000 as of early December [1] - There are indications that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a rebound, which could positively impact ETFs like the Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR) [2] - Market sentiment suggests that Bitcoin could outperform traditional asset classes such as equities and gold, particularly due to its recent aggressive sell-off compared to these assets [3] Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite - A revival in risk appetite is essential for Bitcoin and related ETFs like BRRR to see a substantial rebound, as Bitcoin has become a sentiment gauge for broader market trends [4] - Bitcoin's price movements have mirrored those of US technology stocks, often with greater volatility, indicating its role as a leading indicator for these assets [5] Underlying Factors for Rebound - The recent sell-off in Bitcoin may have been deeper than warranted, driven by deleveraging, which can ultimately lead to a healthier market environment by reducing fragility and resetting positions [6] - Macroeconomic factors, including the potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut, support the case for increased Bitcoin exposure, as Bitcoin tends to react strongly to easing macro pressures [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. equity markets experienced significant volatility recently, with a five-day winning streak interrupted by a decline in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, which struggled to maintain a value above $90,000 [1][2] - Concerns regarding the high valuations of AI firms are prevalent, with expectations of a market correction due to growth not matching substantial investments [2] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve reducing its benchmark borrowing rate has increased, with markets pricing in an approximately 89% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting [2] Momentum Investing Strategy - Momentum investing is characterized by the strategy of "buying high and selling higher," capitalizing on established trends in stock prices [3] - This investment approach is based on the human tendency to project current trends into the future, allowing investors to profit before prices revert to their mean [3][4] - Momentum strategies have historically generated alpha across various market conditions, although identifying trends can be challenging [4] Screening Parameters for Momentum Stocks - The screening process identifies the top 50 stocks with the highest percentage price change over the past 52 weeks, ensuring selection of stocks with consistent appreciation [5] - From these, the 10 worst performers over the past week are chosen to identify those experiencing short-term pullbacks [6] - Stocks are further filtered by Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Style Score of B or better, indicating strong potential for success [7] Selected Momentum Stocks - Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC) has seen a 74.9% increase over the past year but a recent decline of 8.2%, holding a Momentum Score of B [11] - Argan, Inc. (AGX) has surged 138.5% in the past year with a recent drop of 4.2%, achieving a Momentum Score of A [13] - Ubiquiti Inc. (UI) has increased by 56.6% over the past year but lost 2% in the last week, also holding a Momentum Score of A [15]

JUST IN: Chances for a Fed rate cut in December spiked to 88%, according to Polymarket 🇺🇸Bullish 🚀 https://t.co/vFvNN6Evrv ...

Market Overview - US stocks experienced gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 227 points, and the Nasdaq advancing 0.7% as traders anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5][4] - The S&P 500 has seen three consecutive sessions of gains, indicating a positive market trend [5][4] Sector Performance - Technology stocks led the market rally, with Dell Technologies increasing by 2.3% due to record demand for its artificial intelligence servers, and Nvidia, the most valuable company, rising by 2.5% [5][4] - Retailer Urban Outfitters surged by 11.7% after reporting earnings that exceeded Wall Street forecasts [5][4] - Conversely, Deere & Co. saw a decline of nearly 4% after issuing a negative outlook attributed to tariff pressures [5][4] Bond Market - In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.03%, while the 2-year yield increased to 3.49% [5][4] Global Market Trends - Global markets showed broad gains, with Germany's DAX up by 0.7%, France's CAC 40 rising by 0.6%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping by 1.9%, driven by major exporters and technology stocks [5][4]

Market Overview - US stocks closed higher for the third consecutive session, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, with probabilities for a 25-basis-point reduction rising to 81% from 42% the previous week [1] - The market is experiencing a volatile month influenced by a recent government shutdown and a tech selloff, with economic reports indicating softer retail spending and easing producer prices [1] Company Performance - Nvidia experienced a significant drop, marking its worst month since 2022 with a decline of approximately 15% in November due to increased competition in AI hardware [2] - Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners on Nasdaq, with 3,121 risers compared to 1,462 decliners, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Companies such as RKT, OPEN, and CARR are expected to perform well in a lower interest rate environment, alongside IWM/TNA [3] - META showed positive movement, while MSFT/MSFU is anticipated to follow suit, and GOOGL reached new all-time highs [3]

JUST IN: Chances for a Fed rate cut in December spike to 85%, according to Polymarket 🇺🇸Bullish for Bitcoin! 🚀 https://t.co/a0RQ37bpzN ...

📊 INSIGHT: CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut in Dec. at 84.7%, with just 15.3% for no change. https://t.co/DLfTxgXmQn ...

Economic Outlook - Investment professionals are optimistic about the economy, with the majority expecting inflation to remain under 3% and 84% of registered investment advisors anticipating another Federal Reserve rate cut this year [1] Portfolio Adjustments - One-third (31%) of registered investment advisors are increasing client exposure to equities in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, as lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, making stocks more attractive compared to bonds [3] - Advisors are reallocating portfolios to balance risk tolerance rather than solely focusing on inflation, emphasizing the importance of diversification [4][6] Market Sentiment - There is a concern that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates due to an economic slowdown or potential recession, market sentiment and stock prices may decline, leading investors to potentially take profits towards the end of the year [4]