Economic Performance - Inflation is down [1] - The fiscal deficit is down [1] - Exports are up [1] Potential Concerns - The rosy economic picture may not be the whole story [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Thailand's economic activity is showing mixed signals, with stable private consumption and strong exports countered by a sharp decline in private investment due to rising uncertainty [1][2] - Goods exports have shown robust growth, particularly to the US and China, with a year-on-year increase of 13.9 percent in February, marking the highest growth in four months [4][12] - The tourism sector is experiencing a decline in arrivals, particularly from China, which fell by 40 percent year-on-year, reaching only 35 percent of pre-pandemic levels [3] Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Private consumption expanded modestly, supported by fiscal stimulus, but high household debt and tighter credit standards are constraining spending [2] - The private investment index contracted sharply, reflecting declines in consumer confidence and ongoing weakness in manufacturing output [2] Exports - Goods exports maintained double-digit growth, driven by strong shipments to the US and China, partly due to frontloading amid global trade uncertainties [4][12] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN have started to contract, indicating potential challenges in these markets [12] Tourism - Tourist arrivals in February declined by 6.9 percent year-on-year, with arrivals from major sources surpassing pre-pandemic levels except for China [3] - The recent earthquake may further dampen tourist confidence and arrivals in the coming months [3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has declined for three consecutive months, with headline inflation at 0.8 percent in March, below the Bank of Thailand's target range [14] - The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy rate to 2.0 percent to alleviate household debt pressures amid tightening credit standards [14] Fiscal Position - The central government's fiscal deficit widened to 6.7 percent of GDP in the first five months of FY 2025, driven by increased spending [15] - Fiscal revenue reached its highest level since 2020, but spending growth outpaced revenue gains [15] Financial Markets - The Thai baht depreciated by 1.5 percent in early April, influenced by global market risk-off sentiment despite a strong current account surplus [16][24] - The current account surplus rose to USD 5.5 billion, the highest since the pandemic, driven by a stronger goods trade balance [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed concerns about the US economy facing "considerable turbulence" due to potential trade wars initiated by President Trump [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The economy is experiencing considerable turbulence influenced by geopolitics, with both positive factors such as tax reform and deregulation, and negative factors including tariffs, ongoing inflation, high fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices and volatility [2]. - Dimon emphasized the need for the firm to prepare for a wide range of economic scenarios while hoping for the best [2]. Company Performance - JPMorgan Chase reported a 9% increase in profits for Q1 2025, achieving a net income of $14.6 billion, up from $13.4 billion in the same period the previous year, surpassing analyst expectations of $13.6 billion [3].