Key focus and themes Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange Asia exJapan/Euro Area/Europe Trump's possible diplomacy; Powell; impending tariffs Which of the following most closely matches your expectations for the IsraelIran conflict over the next two weeks? | Fig. 1: Top five top­conviction strategy trades in order (scale 1­5) | | --- | | ★★★★★ | | | Top 5 FX and Rates Trades | | ★★★★★ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Countries | Trade | bp move | bp move from | Target | Timeline | Convi ...

J P M O R G A N MENA Emerging Markets Research 20 June 2025 GCC: Large flows through a narrow Strait As tensions rise, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz is once more in the spotlight Risks around the Strait of Hormuz have returned to center stage since the offensive launched by Israel and the Iranian retaliation. Safe passage through the Strait is vital for global hydrocarbon trade and for most of the Middle-East oil producers. About 20% of global oil trade and 30% of seaborne oil trade passes through ...

Futures are muted this morning. This after the US conducted strikes on Iran's nuclear sites for sight insights now on how this could play out in the markets this week. Want to bring in Jeremy Seagull, professor at finance at University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, also chief economist at Wisdomree.Good morning to you. I think there were a lot of people worried over the weekend about how the markets might react this morning. They seem to be reacting actually quite well.I know that you have b ...

Stephen, how much risk premium then has been factored in levels we see today, given the upside pressure on oil prices is now relatively muted in the context of this significant geopolitical event. You know, oil prices are still up 10% since Israel launched the strikes on Iranian nuclear sites about two weeks ago. A week and a half ago.So we are still in a risk premium situation. Prices are higher than where the fundamentals show. But I think today's move in the market is pretty indicative of where we stand. ...

Global Commodities Research 13 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities At Any Rate: Aluminum's premium paralysis Global Commodities Research Natasha Kaneva (1-212) 834-3175 natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Tracey Allen (44-20) 7134-6732 tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It ...

Market Risk & Geopolitical Factors - Equity markets are experiencing nervousness potentially due to Middle East tensions and potential US involvement [1] - Low liquidity is hindering aggressive trading, with the market drifting and awaiting the next major catalyst [3] - A negative surprise catalyst is deemed more likely given optimistic pricing on trade and the tax bill [3] Central Bank Policies & Currency Dynamics - The Fed's message regarding stagflation risks is slightly negative for stocks and the dollar [2][10] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is being watched for a possible move to negative interest rates [4] - The Swiss franc is viewed as a financial asset similar to gold, serving as a portfolio diversification asset [5][6] - Geopolitical factors, not fundamental inputs, primarily drive the Swiss franc [8] Dollar Performance - The dollar's recent strength is marginal, around 01% [9] - The Fed's stagflation message is not particularly positive for the dollar, and the short squeeze appears to be losing momentum [10] - The world is structurally overexposed to the dollar [10]

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - Oil prices have moved dramatically higher due to geopolitical tensions, with the current price movement largely attributed to a geopolitical premium [2] - The market is highly reactive to geopolitical headlines, causing volatility as traders assess the implications for supply and oil prices [4] - Current oil prices are around $74, and while higher than the $60-65 range before the geopolitical events, they are not yet at levels indicating supply interruption concerns [3][4] OPEC+ and Market Dynamics - OPEC+'s decision to bring forward supply surprised market participants, potentially preventing even higher oil prices [6] - Political considerations play a significant role in OPEC+ decision-making, particularly in maintaining group cohesion [7][8] - OPEC+ initially believed the market could absorb increased barrels until the first half of the year, but geopolitical concerns have altered this outlook [9] - OPEC still possesses considerable spare capacity that could be brought online, though escalating conflict impacting production and export facilities could drive prices even higher [10]

FOR THE CONVERSATIONS THAT MATTER AND THE INSIGHTS YOU NEED, LET'S GET STARTED. ♪ >> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS, THIS IS THE PULSE WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME.I'M FRANCINE LACQUA IN LONDON. IRAN SAYS THE HEAD OF ITS ARMED FORCES AND SIX OF ITS NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS HAVE BEEN KILLED IN A WAVE OF ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES. ISRAEL SAYS 200 WERE PLANTED 100 TARGETS IN IRAN WITH THE AIM OF PREVENTING IT FROM BEING ABLE TO MAKE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.ISRAEL SAYS IRAN HAS RESPONDED BY LAUNCHING MORE ...

Warner Bros Discovery will not be selling its Polish network TVN. Following a strategic review, WBD management has decided to keep the broadcaster in its ranks, according to a note sent today to staff from Kasia Kieli, Head of WBD Poland and CEO at TVN, and Gerhard Zeiler, President of International at WBD. “That review has been completed, and WBD has concluded that the best path forward is retaining ownership of TVN, continuing to support our business, our strategy and the incredible journalistic work of ...