President Trump saying he will decide within 10 to 15 days whether to continue talks with Iran or to begin military action. And his latest comments come after the president spoke at a board of peace meeting in Washington D saying quote bad things would happen if a meaningful deal is not reached with tan. We've seen oil reacting off the back of this actually trading at its highest in about six months.This is again as Trump says that he will decide on whether to attack Iran within the next 10 days. You see WT ...

Economic Overview - The French private sector is experiencing "growth-less" stability, with the Composite Output Index rising to 49.9 in February from 49.1 in January, but remaining below the 50.0 threshold that indicates expansion [2][10] - The Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9, missing the estimated 50.9 and declining from January's 51.2, indicating a potential premature industrial rebound [3][10] - The Services PMI improved to 49.6, surpassing the estimate of 49.2, and reached a two-month high, providing some support for the broader economy [3] Investment Sentiment - Investors in French equities, as tracked by the iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ), observed a decline in new business inflows for the third consecutive month, marking the fastest pace of decline since July [4] - The 2026 budget agreement has provided some political stability, but upcoming presidential succession is beginning to impact corporate confidence [4] Energy Sector Developments - Russian drone strikes targeted oil and gas infrastructure in Ukraine's Poltava region, causing significant damage to production equipment and resulting in fires [5][6] - This incident marks the 20th targeted strike on Naftogaz facilities in 2026, continuing to threaten regional energy stability, which is of concern to global energy companies like TotalEnergies, BP, and Shell [6] Fixed-Income Market Trends - The UK 5-year Gilt yield fell to 3.765%, the lowest since September 2024, as investors reacted to cooling domestic inflation, which dropped to 3.0% in January [7][8] - The decline in yields suggests a market consensus that the Bank of England may need to accelerate its rate-cutting cycle to support the economy, indicating a significant "flight to safety" among traders [8] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical uncertainty has increased, with prediction markets indicating a 57% chance of U.S. military action against Iran by March 31, 2026, a notable rise from earlier in the month [9][10] - Speculative betting has surged due to renewed rhetoric regarding Iran's nuclear program and reports of U.S. military buildup in the region, impacting crude oil prices and raising concerns about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [11]

Futures are buoyed by geopolitical risk premiums despite estimates that the market ran a surplus of roughly 1.5 million barrels a day in 2025. ...

🚨LATEST: VIRAL POST ON 4CHAN CLAIMS ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN IS IMMINENTA viral post on 4chan claims that an Israeli military strike on Iran is about to occur, but there is no verified reporting from credible news outlets confirming such an imminent attack.Iranian officials have warned they may act preemptively if they perceive a clear threat, a stance that reflects broader friction."We are about t minus 3 days now," a part of the post on February 17 read. ...

Escalation of geopolitical risk in the Middle East has added a risk premium to crude oil, supporting prices. The Wall Street Journal said last Wednesday that the US has discussed seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil. Also, the US is sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to prepare for military action should nuclear talks with Iran fail. The US Department of Transportation recently issued a maritime advisory stating that American-flagged ships should stay as far as possible from I ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is down -0.62 (-0.99%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is down -0.0027 (-0.14%). Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up an early advance today and turned lower, with crude falling to a 2-week low.  Today's rally in the dollar index ($DXY) to a 1-week high is bearish for energy prices.  Losses in crude accelerated today after Iran said it has reached a "general agreement" with the US on a nuclear deal. More News from Barchart Geopolitical risks between the US and Iran e ...

Market Overview - US equity-index futures showed a decline, with S&P 500 contracts dropping 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 Index contracts slipping 0.7%, indicating a cautious market sentiment following the Presidents' Day holiday [1] - Asian stocks fell by 0.1% amid thin trading conditions, with several markets closed for the Lunar New Year, while European shares were also expected to open weaker [2] Treasury and Bond Market - The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by two basis points to 4.03%, while demand for Japanese government bonds increased at a recent auction, signaling stabilization [3][7] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have resurfaced, particularly concerning developments in the Middle East, as traders monitor the situation between the US and Iran, which has affected market sentiment [4][5] Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Investors are looking for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with key speeches and economic data releases scheduled, including ADP private payrolls and minutes from the Fed's January meeting [6] AI Market Impact - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) has led to selling pressure across various sectors, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% year-to-date and the Nasdaq 100 down approximately 2% [8] - A JPMorgan Chase team has advised caution on stocks vulnerable to AI-driven "cannibalization," particularly in software, business services, and media sectors [8][9] Earnings Resilience - Current earnings season shows a growth rate of 13% for companies, contributing to a positive outlook for the S&P 500 despite the challenges posed by AI disruptions [10]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced mixed results, with crude oil rebounding from a 1.5-week low due to a weaker dollar and short covering, while gasoline prices declined slightly [1] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical risk between the US and Iran has decreased, as President Trump indicated potential negotiations over a nuclear deal, reducing the likelihood of military action that could disrupt oil supplies [2] - Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added a risk premium to crude oil prices, with the US discussing the seizure of Iranian oil tankers and deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region [5] OPEC+ Production Outlook - Some OPEC+ members are considering resuming oil production increases in April, believing that concerns about a global supply glut are exaggerated, with a meeting scheduled for March 1 to discuss the situation [3] Supply Dynamics - An increase in crude supplies in floating storage, particularly from Russia and Iran, is exerting bearish pressure on oil prices, with approximately 290 million barrels currently in floating storage, over 50% higher than a year ago [4] - Venezuelan crude exports have risen significantly, increasing from 498,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December to 800,000 bpd in January, contributing to the overall increase in global oil supplies [6]

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing downward pressure, reaching 1.5-week lows due to easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as speculation regarding potential increases in OPEC+ production levels [1][2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The de-escalation of US-Iran tensions has reduced the likelihood of military actions that could disrupt oil supplies, as President Trump indicated that negotiations over a nuclear deal could last for an extended period [2]. - The US has discussed the possibility of seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil, and there are considerations to send additional military resources to the Middle East in case nuclear talks fail, which could impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) [5]. OPEC+ Production Outlook - Some OPEC+ members believe there is room to increase oil production in April, as concerns about a global supply glut are perceived to be exaggerated. An online meeting is scheduled for March 1 to discuss the situation [3]. Supply Dynamics - There is a significant increase in crude supplies in floating storage, with approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently stored on tankers, which is over 50% higher than the previous year due to sanctions and blockades [4]. - Venezuelan crude exports have risen to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, contributing to the increase in global oil supplies and exerting further bearish pressure on prices [6].

Core Insights - The Trump administration secretly smuggled approximately 6,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals into Iran, marking the first direct shipment of these devices into the country [1] - The U.S. State Department previously purchased nearly 7,000 terminals to support anti-regime activists amid a severe crackdown on protests and internet blackouts in Iran [2] - The operation highlights the integration of commercial technology into national security strategies, potentially creating new revenue opportunities for defense contractors [5] Geopolitical Context - Possession of Starlink terminals is illegal in Iran, yet many Iranians use them to circumvent government censorship [3] - Prediction markets indicate significant geopolitical risks, with a 44% chance of a U.S. strike on Iran by June 30 and a 17% probability of the Iranian regime falling by the same date [4] - The Pentagon is preparing a second carrier strike group for deployment to the Middle East, indicating heightened military readiness [3] Industry Implications - The revelation of the Trump administration's covert actions could escalate tensions between the U.S. and Iran, impacting volatility in energy and defense sectors as Q2 approaches [6] - Defense contractors are likely to benefit from the increasing tensions and the strategic use of satellite and communications technologies [5]