Core Viewpoint - The housing market is expected to see home prices remain flat in 2026, with a 0% growth forecast, as efforts to improve affordability have minimal impact [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - A slight improvement in demand is anticipated to offset an increase in supply, leading to stable home prices [2] - The Federal Reserve's expected reduction in adjustable-rate mortgages may help buyers, despite the 30-year fixed rate remaining above 6% [2] - Homebuilders are likely to continue offering rate buydowns to reduce mortgage costs and clear unsold inventory [2] Price Trends - Home prices showed a 1.9% increase in November year-over-year, a decline from 4.8% growth in October [3] - Regions with significant supply growth during the pandemic, particularly the West Coast and Sun Belt, are experiencing price declines [4] - Texas home prices have decreased by 2.4% and Florida home prices by 5.1% year-over-year, reflecting market weaknesses [5] Market Supply Analysis - JPMorgan estimates a shortfall of approximately 1.2 million homes in the U.S., although this is lower than the consensus view due to recent supply growth [6] - Historical data indicates that housing completions have generally matched household formation over the past 30 years [6] Policy Impact - President Trump's proposed ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes is unlikely to significantly affect the market, as they represent only 1%-3% of transactions [8] - The ban could potentially tighten overall supply by limiting the entry of rental homes into the market [9] - Trump's directive for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities may only reduce rates by 10-15 basis points, which is minimal compared to the overall $14.5 trillion mortgage market [10] Builder Strategies - Many homebuilders are already offering mortgage rate buydowns of 100 to 200 basis points below prevailing rates, suggesting that further reductions in market rates may not significantly boost demand [11] - Trump's preference for rising home prices indicates a reluctance to implement measures that would lower them, as he believes that increased home values contribute to wealth [12][13]

Mortgage Rates - The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage increased to 6.11% from 6.10% last week, while a year ago it was 6.89% [1][4] - The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.5% from 5.49% last week [4] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The recent stability in the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is seen as a positive sign for buyers and sellers as the spring home sales season approaches [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged has contributed to the marginal increase in mortgage rates, with attention on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman [5][6] Affordability and Economic Conditions - Home affordability is influenced by low inflation, a stable labor market, and wage growth, which enhances household purchasing power [9] - A credible Federal Reserve that effectively manages price stability and employment is essential for improving housing affordability over time [10]

Core Viewpoint - Lennar is proposing a significant homebuilding plan to address the U.S. home affordability crisis, aiming to build up to 1 million entry-level homes [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - Lennar's stock surged by 7.5% in morning trading following the announcement of the homebuilding plan, settling at nearly a 4% increase by the end of the day [2]. - The proposed home construction plan may utilize a rent-to-own model, where private investors fund the construction and rent the homes to tenants, allowing rent payments to contribute towards a down payment after a specified period [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The U.S. is facing a housing affordability crisis, exacerbated by government policies limiting new construction and slow wage growth. From 2000 to 2024, house prices have increased significantly, outpacing median income growth [4]. - The Trump administration is seeking ways to enhance housing affordability, although previous efforts have shown limited success. Current mortgage rates remain high, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate above 6%, compared to 2.8% five years ago [5]. - The housing market has been struggling for years, and a successful plan to improve affordability could benefit the administration in upcoming mid-term elections, making Lennar's proposal potentially viable [6].

Group 1 - A proposal for "Trump homes" could lead to the construction of hundreds of thousands of new homes as part of a rent-to-own program [1] - Homebuilder stocks, including Lennar, Taylor Morrison, KB Home, PulteGroup, and D.R. Horton, experienced gains following reports of the Trump administration's consideration of a housing affordability initiative [1] - Lennar's shares surged over 5% in recent trading, building on a 3% increase from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration is exploring various proposals related to housing affordability, including methods to lower mortgage rates and alter typical mortgage structures [1] - One proposal suggests that homebuilders could construct entry-level "Trump homes" backed by private investors, allowing renters to count the first three years of rent payments toward a down payment [1] - Details regarding the potential involvement of federally-backed mortgages remain unclear [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around the impact of tariffs on inflation and housing affordability, with conflicting statements from government officials regarding whether tariffs contribute to inflation and the overall economic burden on American consumers [1][2][4]. Tariffs and Inflation - The San Francisco Federal Reserve asserts that tariffs do not cause inflation, contradicting earlier claims made by government officials [2]. - Despite claims that tariffs are not inflationary, there is evidence suggesting that they have raised prices for consumers across various goods [4][7]. Impact on Housing Market - Tariffs imposed on construction materials such as lumber and steel have exacerbated the housing crisis, resulting in an estimated half a million fewer homes being built [7]. - The Trump administration's tariffs on housing production goods have contributed to increased housing costs, making affordability a significant issue for American consumers [6][8]. Government Response - There are calls for government officials to reconsider the imposition of tariffs that negatively impact American consumers and housing affordability [9]. - The discussion highlights a bipartisan approach to addressing the housing crisis, emphasizing the need for more homes to be built rather than fewer due to tariff-related costs [5][6].

Tariffs are inflationary. Did you say that at that time. Yes or no. No.Okay. Thank you. Okay.We have a New York Times article that, you know, a great New York Times. Then last summer, when you testified before a Senate committee, you said, and I quote, There is no inflation. Terrorists are not being passed on to consumers.You are quite you were quite definitive and even claim that critics had, quote, tariff derangement syndrome. Well, those comments are at odds with the statement you made to investors that ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's recent comments indicate a preference for maintaining or increasing home prices rather than allowing them to decrease, which he believes would benefit current homeowners [2][4]. Group 1: Housing Affordability Strategy - Trump's strategy to address housing affordability focuses on lowering borrowing costs rather than reducing home prices [2][3]. - He has ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to help ease mortgage rates [3]. - Plans to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes are aimed at preserving homeownership for individuals [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Trump's stance on not wanting to drive down housing prices could complicate the market for first-time buyers, who are already facing challenges [4]. - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index has increased by over 87% in the past decade, indicating that home prices remain significantly higher than they were ten years ago [4]. - The share of first-time buyers in the U.S. has dropped to a record low of 21%, with the median age of first-time buyers now at 40, reflecting a trend of younger Americans being priced out of the market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Homebuilders Lennar and Taylor Morrison Home are collaborating on a proposed "Trump Homes" initiative aimed at addressing the U.S. housing affordability crisis, which has gained attention amid rising interest rates and home prices [1][3]. Group 1: Proposed Initiative - The "Trump Homes" plan involves a large-scale program to sell entry-level homes through a pathway-to-ownership model funded by private investors, allowing tenants to rent homes with a portion of their payments contributing to a future down payment after three years [2]. - The proposal could potentially encompass up to one million homes, indicating a significant scale of impact on the housing market [4]. Group 2: Market Context - Housing affordability has become a critical issue for the U.S. government, with President Trump advocating for measures to assist first-time buyers while avoiding a decline in existing home prices [3]. - Following a challenging year, Lennar's shares have shown a positive trend, increasing by 9% at the start of 2026, reflecting investor optimism in the housing sector [4].

Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg President Donald Trump’s bid to put home ownership in reach for more Americans is sputtering, just weeks after it launched. With voters signaling that pocketbook issues are top-of-mind ahead of the November midterm elections, the White House has floated a series of trial balloons aimed at lowering the cost of buying a home, only to see several shot down by Congress, the financial industry or even Trump himself. Most Read from Bloomberg The result: About six we ...

[music] [music] Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. Stocks closing the day lower here after a busy week on Wall Street. Our very own Jared Blickery standing by with the latest market action.Jared, >> busy week. What an understatement. Let's go over the closing numbers here.Pretty red down the line, but I'm going to show you the weeklies as well. Here's the Dow. It's down 177 points or 1/3 of 1% and here's the fi let me put that there we go the 5day price action down about 4/10en of 1% so it was ...