Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing minimal movement, with the S&P 500 down 0.1%, the Dow also down similarly, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.3% [1] - The significant activity is occurring in the bond market, where a sell-off is causing notable pain for investors [1] Group 2 - Investors are hesitant to engage in the stock market ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a rate decrease today [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership for the next year, which adds to the unpredictability of future interest rate movements [2]

Hello and welcome to market domination over time. There are quite a few big bullish bets on markets for 2026 on Wall Street. And our next guest says economic tailwinds should support that market sentiment. Here with me at the desk got Bryant Vancronite, Allspring Global Investments senior portfolio manager. Bryant, always good to see you. Let's start here. Brian, you say the US economy should be good enough for stocks in early 26. Maybe start there. Why, Brian? Like what are the drivers? Is it monetary stim ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dow Jones Index remains stable and is close to its all-time high as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and significant earnings reports from companies like Adobe, Oracle, and Costco [1] Company Summaries - Adobe is expected to report its earnings soon, which could influence market sentiment and investor decisions [1] - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is also anticipated to be a key factor for investors, potentially impacting stock performance [1] - Costco's earnings announcement is another critical event that investors are closely monitoring, as it may provide insights into consumer spending trends [1]

Group 1 - Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced significant declines, with Bitcoin falling 4% to $98,200 and Ethereum dropping 8% to $3,167, marking their lowest values since May and July respectively [1][4] - The broader market also faced a downturn, with the Nasdaq composite index decreasing by 2.3% as investors sold off stocks [1][2] - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions contributed to the market's volatility, as traders adjusted their expectations for rate cuts in December [2][3] Group 2 - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has decreased, with current pricing indicating a 51% chance, down from 62% on Wednesday and 69% a week ago [2] - The absence of the October unemployment rate report, due to the household survey not being conducted, adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [3] - Other major cryptocurrencies, including XRP and Solana, also faced declines of about 8%, while BNB fell more than 5% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 Index experienced mixed performance due to investor reactions to corporate earnings from major tech companies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Corporate Earnings - Most of the Magnificent 7 companies reported their earnings, influencing investor sentiment and market performance [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates played a significant role in shaping market reactions and investor strategies [1]

Core Insights - Inflation remained elevated in September, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year, up from 2.9% in August [1] - Core prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.2% from the previous month and 3% year-over-year, both figures slightly below economists' expectations [2] Economic Impact - High inflation has imposed significant financial pressures on U.S. households, particularly affecting lower-income Americans who spend a larger portion of their income on necessities [3] - Food prices rose by 0.2% in September, with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%. The food at home index increased by 0.3% monthly and was 2.7% higher than a year ago, while the food away from home index rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year [4]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated he made his interest rate decision independently and was not pressured by President Trump [1][2] - Miran voted against a quarter percentage point reduction, favoring a larger cut, and his projections for the fed funds rate were significantly lower than those of other Federal Open Market Committee members [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased since Trump's second term began, with the president advocating for aggressive rate cuts [3] - Trump has attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook and indicated he would evaluate Powell's replacement based on their willingness to ease monetary policy [4] - Miran dismissed concerns about potential conflicts of interest regarding his position, emphasizing his commitment to serve until January 2026 [4][5] - Miran is scheduled to speak at the Economic Club of New York, a significant platform for business and political leaders [6]

Core Points - The Trump administration is seeking to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's board of governors ahead of an important interest rate vote [1][5] - Cook's legal team argues that the administration has not provided sufficient cause for her dismissal, highlighting potential economic risks [2][4] - This situation marks a historic attempt by a president to influence the independent Federal Reserve, with Cook being the first governor targeted for removal [3] Legal Proceedings - The Trump administration filed a response to the U.S. Court of Appeals, claiming Cook's arguments against her firing are without merit [2] - Cook has initiated legal action to block her firing, and a federal judge previously ruled that the removal was illegal, reinstating her to the board [4] Allegations and Investigations - Allegations against Cook include claims of mortgage fraud related to her property declarations, which have led to a criminal referral to the Justice Department [3][4] - The administration's justification for firing Cook is based on these allegations, although her characterization of the properties may undermine the claims [4] Economic Implications - The administration's appeal comes just before a Federal Reserve meeting where a key interest rate decision is expected, with economists predicting a quarter-point cut [5]

Core Insights - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a significant capital influx of $368.25 million, marking the largest single-day inflow since August 8, indicating renewed institutional investor confidence [1] - Fidelity's FBTC led the inflows with $156.50 million, followed by Ark Invest and 21 Shares' ARKB with $89.47 million, with all twelve spot Bitcoin ETFs recording inflows [1] Institutional Activity - The increase in institutional buying aligns with key macroeconomic reports, including Nonfarm Payrolls revisions, Producer Price Index, and Consumer Price Index, which are crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on September 17 [2] - Investors are repositioning ahead of the Fed's rate decision, reflecting a strategic shift in response to anticipated monetary policy changes [2] Market Trends - A modest quarter-point rate cut was expected, but the potential for a half-point cut is generating increased interest in the crypto market [3] - Ethereum ETFs experienced a negative net flow of $96.69 million, indicating a shift in investor sentiment back towards Bitcoin as a safer investment [3][4] Volatility and Price Movements - Short-dated implied volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum surged by 15%, suggesting that options traders are preparing for significant market movements [4] - Current trading prices show Bitcoin at approximately $112,654 (up 0.8%) and Ethereum at $4,348 (up 1.1%) [5]