Market Trend - Bitcoin's 200-day moving average reaches $100 thousand for the first time [1]

Market Trend - Bitcoin's 200-day moving average has surpassed $100 thousand [1]

🚨 Bitcoin 200-day moving average breaks above $100k for the first time EVER! https://t.co/T8DrjfHTtB ...

A moving average (MA) is a technical indicator that smooths price action by filtering out noise. SMAs average all prices equally; EMAs give more weight to recent prices. Learn more: https://t.co/GQlDXDb2n7 https://t.co/iywWV5KgUu ...

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) is experiencing volatility, currently trading at $49.94, down 3.2% in the afternoon, with an 8.5% year-to-date deficit, but historical patterns suggest potential for recovery [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Since mid-June, ONON has faced resistance at $55, limiting breakout attempts and contributing to its year-to-date underperformance [1] - Historical data indicates that after similar market conditions, ONON has increased in value 75% of the time, averaging a 10.6% gain one month later [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - ONON is currently within one standard deviation of the 80-day moving average, having spent 80% of the past two months above this average [2] - The stock's recent trading behavior suggests a potential upward movement if the historical trend continues [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Options traders exhibit extreme bearish sentiment, with a put/call open interest ratio of 1.66, placing it in the 99th percentile of the past year [4] - A reversal of this bearish sentiment could provide additional support for ONON's stock price [4]

Market Analysis & Trends - The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) is a key indicator for Bitcoin, with its ability to hold above this average suggesting the market cycle's integrity remains intact [1] - Historically, a weekly close below the 50-week SMA has signaled the end of a Bitcoin cycle and the halfway point of a bear market [1] - Diminishing returns across Bitcoin cycles may lead to more frequent tests of the 50-week SMA [2] - Bitcoin dominance tends to increase regardless of market conditions, suggesting a strategy of holding Bitcoin to mitigate downside risk [2] - The analysis suggests a potential test of the 50-week SMA, currently around $85,000-$86,000, in the near future, possibly as early as Q3 [2] Historical Patterns & Observations - In previous cycles (2013/2014 and 2017/2018), touching the 50-week SMA often marked the cycle's end [1] - The 2021 cycle differed, as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs even after a weekly close below the 50-week SMA, possibly due to it not being a midterm election year [1] - Historically, bear markets have predominantly occurred in midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) [5] Risk Management & Future Outlook - Maintaining positions in Bitcoin provides exposure to potential upside while minimizing downside risk [2][8] - The analysis suggests that while predicting exact market tops is difficult, monitoring the 50-week SMA is crucial [2][10] - A failure to hold the 50-week SMA as support could indicate the start of a typical bear market [5]

And here are the last two DXY death crosseshttps://t.co/XWuBCWOIOzBarchart (@Barchart):U.S. Dollar Index $DXY is about to form a Death Cross ☠️ on the weekly chart (50 week moving average crossing below the 200 week) 🚨 A huge upside reversal took place each of the last 2 times this happened (March 2018 and Jan 2021) 📈📈 https://t.co/ALLwNxT70w ...

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) is experiencing a breakout above its June closing highs, surpassing its 200-day moving average and year-to-date anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) [1] - The stock has bounced near peak put open interest at the 50-strike and is now breaking above the $55 pivot point from a November earnings gap, which has previously acted as both support and resistance [1] - The 65-strike call option is set to expire next week, potentially leading to higher prices as shorts begin to cover, with over 25% of UPST's total available float sold short [2] Group 2 - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for UPST is in the 10th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders can acquire premiums at a relative bargain [2] - A recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 3.7, suggesting it will double in value with a 29.1% move in the underlying equity [3]

Market Analysis and Trends - The NASDAQ 100 ETF closed at a fresh all-time high, indicating a positive market trend [1] - Uncertainty surrounding trade wars, particularly with China, caused market panic and corrections, but de-escalation and cooperation are now seen as positive developments [7][8][10] - Historical analysis suggests that geopolitical events like the Israel-Iran conflict tend to cause short-term volatility, but markets often recover quickly [13][14] - The market's trend remains upward, anticipating positive resolutions to conflicts, trade wars, and strong US fundamentals and corporate earnings [19] - Bull markets have historically lasted over 5 years on average, suggesting potential for further gains despite recent rallies [37] Investment Strategy and Portfolio Performance - Zach's Investment Research manages a growth-oriented portfolio focused on companies with positive news events [2][3] - The "Headline Trader" portfolio achieved a 127% average return with 100% open trade winners [5][22] - The firm employs a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to identify stocks primed for outperformance [20] - The firm targets stocks within leading industry groups, as industry group plays a large role in a stock's future performance [22] - A 10-month simple moving average is used as a reliable system to determine market trends and generate buy/sell signals [26][27] - The Zach's Rank system is used to narrow down investment options to stocks with positive earnings estimate revisions [31][32] - Astera Labs (ALAB), a semiconductor company for cloud and AI infrastructure, is being targeted due to its Zach's Rank 2 (Buy) rating, positive earnings surprises (28.41% trailing four-quarter average), and industry ranking in the top 21% [33][34][35] - Full-year earnings estimates for Astera Labs have risen by 7.14% to $1.35 per share, representing over 60% growth relative to last year and 77% higher revenues [36]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing Inc (NASDAQ:RGTI) has experienced a significant 1,070% gain over the past year, but has seen a decline of 25% year-to-date in 2025, with a 5.3% drop in June alone. The current pullback is testing a historically bullish signal [1]. Group 1 - RGTI has pulled back to its 50-day moving average, being within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR) after spending at least 80% of the last 10 days and two months above it. Historical data shows that in three similar instances over the past three years, RGTI was higher one month later, averaging a 4.4% gain [2]. - The trendline previously provided resistance before the recent pullback, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2 - A decrease in short interest could provide positive momentum for RGTI, with bearish bets down by 16% in the latest reporting period. However, 55.28 million shares sold short still represent 19.3% of the stock's total available float [3]. Group 3 - The 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for RGTI is currently at 30, nearing "oversold" territory, suggesting a potential short-term rebound could occur [5].