Market Sentiment and Volatility - A notable sentiment shift occurred, with the VIX moving above resistance around 18, which typically predicts an increase in volatility for up to three weeks [2][4] - The S&P 500 is experiencing its first meaningful pullback since the April low, which may ultimately be welcomed by buyers, but current negative catalysts are being respected [3][6] Technical Indicators - The 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 is rolling over, indicating a contraction in market breadth and making it harder for investors to capitalize on the uptrend since late September [5][6] - Sell signals have emerged on the weekly charts of demark indicators for the first time since April, suggesting a potentially prolonged consolidation period of about eight weeks [7] Seasonal Influences - The current market behavior deviates from typical seasonal patterns, as positive seasonal influences usually manifest in November, but were absent in August, September, and early October [7] Interest Rates and Gold - The 10-year yield has a key support level at 4%, with 3.67% being the next significant level to watch [8] - Gold is showing strong momentum, with attention on the 20-day moving average to stay aligned with the uptrend [9]

Ivy Portfolio Overview - The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale, constructed with 5 ETFs to achieve diversification and reduce risk [2][5] - The portfolio consists of domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [10] Ivy Portfolio Strategy - The strategy involves creating a diversified portfolio with equal weight across major asset classes, calculating a 10-month moving average of closing prices, and adjusting positions based on whether funds close above or below their moving averages [3][5] - At the end of September, all five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio remained in an "invest" position, as none closed below their 10-month or 12-month simple moving averages [5][7] S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly gain of 3.5%, marking the fifth consecutive month of gains, and closed 10.3% above its 10-month simple moving average [8][10] - The index also closed 10.9% above its 12-month simple moving average, indicating a strong performance and maintaining an "invest" position [12] Moving Averages Strategy - Utilizing a moving average strategy can effectively manage the risk of severe losses during bear markets, with the S&P 500's performance since 1995 demonstrating the strategy's effectiveness in capturing upside while reducing losses [9][10] - The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) has produced fewer whipsaws compared to the simple moving average, closing 9.2% above its 10-month EMA in September [13] Conclusion - All three moving average approaches (10-month SMA, 12-month SMA, and 10-month EMA) remained in an "invest" position at the end of September, reflecting a positive market trend [14]

Market Overview - The market is perceived to have a supportive base, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts, which is reflected in current pricing [2][3] - Pullbacks in the market are seen as buying opportunities until a significant change occurs [3] Company Analysis: SanDisk - SanDisk has received increasingly bullish coverage from analysts following its spin-off from Western Digital [3][4] - The stock has risen over 15% recently, indicating strong market sentiment [4] - Technical analysis shows a bullish flag pattern, with a breakout currently in progress [6][7] - Key price levels to watch include a gap level around 96 and potential upside near 112.57 [9][10] Company Analysis: Applied Optoelectronics - Applied Optoelectronics is considered undervalued and is in a favorable market space [12] - The 20-day simple moving average is at 26.70, which is a critical level for potential entry [12] - Technical indicators suggest a resistance zone between 29 and 30.64, with a potential breakout being monitored [15][16] - The stock is currently trading just above 26, with upward trends noted in price action [17] Company Analysis: Carvana - Carvana shares have increased by 128% over the last 12 months, showcasing significant volatility [20] - The stock is currently experiencing a momentum swing breakout, with a critical resistance level around 397 [21][27] - Historical price action indicates a rising wedge pattern, with potential upside if it breaks above 390 [24][25] - Key support levels to watch include around 355 and 340, which could provide buying opportunities during pullbacks [26][28]

Group 1: S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 reached a new record high this week but experienced its first weekly loss in almost a month, posting a loss of 0.3% for the week [1] - The index has been above the 50-day moving average since May 1st and above the 200-day moving average since May 12th, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average since July 1st [2] Group 2: Historical Context - The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 1565.15 on October 9, 2007, before dropping approximately 57% to 676.53 by March 9, 2009, marking the Global Financial Crisis [1] - It took over 5 years for the index to reach a new all-time high on March 28, 2013, closing at 1569.19 [1] Group 3: Volatility Insights - The index experienced its largest intraday price volatility of 10.77% on April 9th since December 24th, 2018, which had a volatility of 19.10% [3] - The average percent change from the intraday low to the intraday high over the past 20 days is 0.69% [3] Group 4: Index Comparison - The S&P 500 is up 13.21% year to date, while the S&P Equal Weight Index is up 8.03% year to date [4]

Market Overview - The recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about the economy, particularly regarding employment stabilization versus inflation focus [2] - The major tech stocks, referred to as MAG 7, have been driving the market higher but are currently experiencing a pause [2] Clorox - Clorox is being considered as a defensive investment due to its status as a consumer staple, especially as tech stocks take a break [3][4] - The company's recent earnings reported revenue of $7.1 billion and a gross margin of 45% [4] - The stock has historically bottomed around the $118 level, indicating a potential low-risk, high-reward opportunity [5] - Technical analysis shows a recent price range with resistance levels at $132 and $127, and a significant support level at $118 [7][11] - A bullish divergence in RSI suggests potential upward momentum despite recent price declines [9][10] - The proposed trade involves selling a $120 strike price put option expiring on October 17, which could yield a 10% return if the stock remains above $120 [12] American Electric Power - American Electric Power is highlighted for its vertical integration in the energy sector, providing a diversified approach to electricity generation and distribution [15] - The stock has been in an uptrend since July 2023, recently bouncing off a technical support channel [16] - Technical indicators show a series of higher lows, with important resistance levels around $110.50 and $115 [20][21] - The proposed trade involves a call option with a $105 strike price expiring on June 18, 2026, with a break-even point at $115 [23] Lowe's (Insurance Company) - Lowe's is recognized for its diversification beyond insurance, including investments in energy, natural gas, and hospitality [25][26] - The stock is in a long-term uptrend, supported by its diversified business model [27] - Technical analysis indicates a breakout above previous highs, with significant trading activity around the $96 to $97 level [30][34] - The proposed trade involves a long call option with a $90 strike price expiring on December 19, 2025, with a break-even point at $101 [37]

Tool Introduction - IntoTheCryptoverse introduces a new metric analyzer tool for cryptocurrency, similar to tools used in other asset classes [1][2] - The tool analyzes Bitcoin's price action after specific events, initially focusing on moving averages, with plans for future expansion [2][3] - Users can analyze ROI (Return on Investment) after events like weekly closes above or below specific Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) over different timeframes (1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) [3] Bitcoin Analysis - Analysis of Bitcoin's historical performance after weekly closes below the 50-week SMA shows an average price increase of only 3-4% three months later [4] - Bitcoin tends to increase significantly after a weekly close above the 50-week SMA after being below it [5][6] - When Bitcoin closes above the 20-week SMA, the average return one month later is up 3%, three months later up approximately 40%, and one year later up approximately 376% [9] - Bitcoin's average return a year after closing below the 200-week SMA: 2015 (155%), later on 164%, 2020 (almost 1,000%), 2022 (30%), 2023 (160% and 125%) [11] Comparative Analysis - The tool allows comparison of Bitcoin's performance with other assets like Ethereum and Solana [7][8] - Users can analyze how Ethereum performs after Bitcoin closes above the 50-week SMA [8] - Users can analyze Solana's price performance when it closes above its 20-week SMA [8] Future Development - IntoTheCryptoverse plans to add more technical indicators and features to the tool to enhance its utility [6] - The company is considering incorporating the number of coins above their 50-week SMA as a metric [9] - The company is considering excluding earlier price action (e g 2012) to provide more relevant and believable data [10]

Core Insights - Grocery chain Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) has seen significant stock performance, doubling in value since last May and increasing by 30% in 2025, although it recently approached a $160 support level [1] - The stock is currently near historically bullish moving averages, with a notable dip bringing it within one standard deviation of the 50-day and 80-day moving averages [1] Stock Performance Analysis - Over the past three years, SFM has approached the 50-day trendline seven times and the 80-day trendline five times, with a 71% success rate for gains one month after the 50-day signal and a 100% success rate after the 80-day signal, averaging gains of 6.3% and 7.8% respectively [2] - A potential upward movement from the current price of $164.65 could see shares rise to $177 by the end of June [2] Analyst Recommendations - There is potential for upgrades in SFM's stock, as nine out of 14 analysts currently have a "hold" recommendation [4] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for SFM is at 36%, placing it in the 23rd percentile of its annual range, indicating options are currently affordable [4] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for SFM is at 82 out of 100, suggesting the stock has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [4]