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Core Insights - The article provides an update on the performance of the S&P 500 and the Ivy Portfolio, highlighting that all five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio remain in an "invest" position as of the end of October [5][7][14]. Ivy Portfolio Overview - The Ivy Portfolio is constructed using an asset allocation strategy similar to that of Harvard and Yale endowment funds, consisting of five ETFs that cover various asset classes [2]. - The strategy involves creating a diversified portfolio with equal weight across asset classes, calculating a 10-month moving average for each fund, and making buy/sell decisions based on whether the fund closes above or below this average [3]. Ivy Portfolio Performance - At the end of October, none of the five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio closed below their 10-month or 12-month simple moving averages, indicating a continued "invest" position [5][7]. - The percentage above or below the moving average for each fund is tracked, with funds within 2% of the signal highlighted for potential position reversals [6]. S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 closed October with a monthly gain of 2.3%, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains, and closed 11.0% above its 10-month simple moving average [8][10]. - The index also closed 11.6% above its 12-month simple moving average, maintaining an "invest" position for six straight months [12]. Moving Averages Strategy - Utilizing a moving average strategy can effectively manage risks associated with bear markets, where holding the index is advised when it closes above the moving average and moving to cash when it closes below [9]. - The article illustrates that a 10- or 12-month simple moving average strategy would have allowed participation in most upside movements since 1995 while significantly reducing losses [10][15]. Psychological Factors - The article discusses the psychology behind momentum signals, noting that human behavior often leads to buying during market uptrends and selling during downturns, which can create cycles of buying and selling momentum [16]. Implementation Considerations - The moving average strategy is most effective when applied to specific investments rather than broad indices, as signals may differ due to factors like dividend reinvestment [17]. - The strategy is recommended for use in tax-advantaged accounts with low-cost brokerage services to maximize gains [18].

Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corp is expected to report strong third-quarter earnings, with analysts projecting earnings of $1.81 per share and revenues of $84.87 billion, driven by favorable market conditions and strategic expansions [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate a robust quarter for Exxon, with consensus estimates of $1.81 earnings per share and $84.87 billion in revenues [2]. - A conference call with executives is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET following the earnings release [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The stock has recently benefited from a sector-wide rally due to U.S. sanctions against Russian oil producers, which have increased crude prices and enhanced Exxon's profitability [2]. - Wall Street sentiment remains positive, with firms like Wells Fargo and UBS maintaining bullish ratings on Exxon [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Exxon has expanded its global footprint by securing its first sale of Guyanese crude oil to refiners in India, marking a significant growth opportunity [3]. Group 4: Stock Performance - As of Thursday, Exxon shares were down 1.57% at $114.69, trading within a 52-week range of $97.80 to $123.21, but showing a year-to-date performance increase of 7.7% [5]. - The stock is trading approximately 2.3% above its 50-day moving average of $112.96 and about 5% above its 200-day moving average of $110.01, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - The relative strength index (RSI) is at 61.31, suggesting a neutral position for the stock [6]. Group 5: Investment Options - Investors can purchase Exxon shares directly or through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that include Exxon, providing exposure to the energy sector [7][8].

Once you see these patterns, you’ll start noticing something else — how traders react around them.That’s where indicators help:RSI measures momentum.Moving Averages show long-term bias.Bollinger Bands tell you when price is getting tense.Use them to confirm, not to predict. ...

Core Insights - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence before making any financial decisions [1] Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - Users are encouraged to consult competent advisors and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1] Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It advises users to carefully consider their understanding of these instruments and their ability to afford potential losses [1] - The content highlights the necessity of performing independent research before investing in any financial instruments [1]

Core Insights - Texas Instruments (TXN) has underperformed in the semiconductor sector, with a decline of approximately 8.2% this year, while the semiconductor ETF (SMH) has increased by about 37% [1][2] - TXN focuses on stable, reliable chips for industrial and automotive markets, differentiating it from high-end computer chip companies like Nvidia and Intel [2][3] Market Trends - The semiconductor sector shows varied performance, indicating that not all companies are equally positioned within the industry [3] - A falling wedge pattern has been observed in TXN's price action since reaching highs near 221, with key support levels identified between 172 and 175 [3][4] Technical Analysis - The price has recently bounced back to the middle of the trading range, with resistance noted around 187 and a significant trading area near 185 [4][6] - The RSI is nearing a bullish crossover, which could indicate a shift in momentum [5][6] Trading Strategy - An example trade strategy involves buying a call option at the 180 strike price and selling a call option at the 190 strike price, creating a bullish $10 wide call diagonal [9][10] - The trade anticipates a rebound, with a break-even point above 182, which is slightly over 1% above the current share price [12][13] - The strategy leverages implied volatility differences, with the October 31st weekly 180 call at 59% and the October 24th 190 call at 82% [10][12]

Market Sentiment and Volatility - A notable sentiment shift occurred, with the VIX moving above resistance around 18, which typically predicts an increase in volatility for up to three weeks [2][4] - The S&P 500 is experiencing its first meaningful pullback since the April low, which may ultimately be welcomed by buyers, but current negative catalysts are being respected [3][6] Technical Indicators - The 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 is rolling over, indicating a contraction in market breadth and making it harder for investors to capitalize on the uptrend since late September [5][6] - Sell signals have emerged on the weekly charts of demark indicators for the first time since April, suggesting a potentially prolonged consolidation period of about eight weeks [7] Seasonal Influences - The current market behavior deviates from typical seasonal patterns, as positive seasonal influences usually manifest in November, but were absent in August, September, and early October [7] Interest Rates and Gold - The 10-year yield has a key support level at 4%, with 3.67% being the next significant level to watch [8] - Gold is showing strong momentum, with attention on the 20-day moving average to stay aligned with the uptrend [9]

Ivy Portfolio Overview - The Ivy Portfolio is based on the asset allocation strategy used by endowment funds from Harvard and Yale, constructed with 5 ETFs to achieve diversification and reduce risk [2][5] - The portfolio consists of domestic stocks, international stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities [10] Ivy Portfolio Strategy - The strategy involves creating a diversified portfolio with equal weight across major asset classes, calculating a 10-month moving average of closing prices, and adjusting positions based on whether funds close above or below their moving averages [3][5] - At the end of September, all five ETFs in the Ivy Portfolio remained in an "invest" position, as none closed below their 10-month or 12-month simple moving averages [5][7] S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 closed September with a monthly gain of 3.5%, marking the fifth consecutive month of gains, and closed 10.3% above its 10-month simple moving average [8][10] - The index also closed 10.9% above its 12-month simple moving average, indicating a strong performance and maintaining an "invest" position [12] Moving Averages Strategy - Utilizing a moving average strategy can effectively manage the risk of severe losses during bear markets, with the S&P 500's performance since 1995 demonstrating the strategy's effectiveness in capturing upside while reducing losses [9][10] - The 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) has produced fewer whipsaws compared to the simple moving average, closing 9.2% above its 10-month EMA in September [13] Conclusion - All three moving average approaches (10-month SMA, 12-month SMA, and 10-month EMA) remained in an "invest" position at the end of September, reflecting a positive market trend [14]

Market Overview - The market is perceived to have a supportive base, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts, which is reflected in current pricing [2][3] - Pullbacks in the market are seen as buying opportunities until a significant change occurs [3] Company Analysis: SanDisk - SanDisk has received increasingly bullish coverage from analysts following its spin-off from Western Digital [3][4] - The stock has risen over 15% recently, indicating strong market sentiment [4] - Technical analysis shows a bullish flag pattern, with a breakout currently in progress [6][7] - Key price levels to watch include a gap level around 96 and potential upside near 112.57 [9][10] Company Analysis: Applied Optoelectronics - Applied Optoelectronics is considered undervalued and is in a favorable market space [12] - The 20-day simple moving average is at 26.70, which is a critical level for potential entry [12] - Technical indicators suggest a resistance zone between 29 and 30.64, with a potential breakout being monitored [15][16] - The stock is currently trading just above 26, with upward trends noted in price action [17] Company Analysis: Carvana - Carvana shares have increased by 128% over the last 12 months, showcasing significant volatility [20] - The stock is currently experiencing a momentum swing breakout, with a critical resistance level around 397 [21][27] - Historical price action indicates a rising wedge pattern, with potential upside if it breaks above 390 [24][25] - Key support levels to watch include around 355 and 340, which could provide buying opportunities during pullbacks [26][28]

Group 1: S&P 500 Performance - The S&P 500 reached a new record high this week but experienced its first weekly loss in almost a month, posting a loss of 0.3% for the week [1] - The index has been above the 50-day moving average since May 1st and above the 200-day moving average since May 12th, with the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average since July 1st [2] Group 2: Historical Context - The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 1565.15 on October 9, 2007, before dropping approximately 57% to 676.53 by March 9, 2009, marking the Global Financial Crisis [1] - It took over 5 years for the index to reach a new all-time high on March 28, 2013, closing at 1569.19 [1] Group 3: Volatility Insights - The index experienced its largest intraday price volatility of 10.77% on April 9th since December 24th, 2018, which had a volatility of 19.10% [3] - The average percent change from the intraday low to the intraday high over the past 20 days is 0.69% [3] Group 4: Index Comparison - The S&P 500 is up 13.21% year to date, while the S&P Equal Weight Index is up 8.03% year to date [4]