Economic Reports and Central Bank Decisions - Several economic reports from China, inflation data from Japan, the UK, and Israel, Swiss export figures, and a credit ratings review of Italy are expected to be highlights in the upcoming week [1] - Central banks in major economies, including Indonesia, Brazil, and South Africa, are anticipated to maintain a watchful stance without changing rates [1][2] US and Canada - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, influenced by market expectations and political pressures rather than economic data [3][4] - Retail sales in the US are forecasted to rise by 0.3% in August, following larger gains in previous months [6] - The Bank of Canada is likely to cut its benchmark overnight rate to 2.5% amid dismal jobs data and economic contraction [8] Asia - China will release a range of economic data, including retail sales and industrial output, to assess the impact of targeted support on demand [10] - The Bank of Japan is expected to leave rates unchanged, with attention on potential future hikes as inflation remains high [13] Europe, Middle East, and Africa - UK inflation data is expected to remain at 3.8%, with the Bank of England likely to keep its key rate on hold at 4% [14] - The European Central Bank will host a conference with potential comments from policymakers following recent rate decisions [16] - Credit assessments for key euro-area borrowers, including Italy and Greece, are scheduled, with Swiss export numbers gaining significance amid trade negotiations [17] Latin America - Brazil's GDP-proxy data is expected to show a decline in economic activity as it heads into the second half of 2025 [19] - Angola and Ghana are anticipated to cut their key rates to support their economies as inflation cools [19] - In Argentina, economic forecasts are being revised downward following poor electoral results, with key economic data releases expected [22]

Market Analysis - Bitcoin price rallied from $15 thousand to $124 thousand despite the harshest Fed quantitative tightening in its history [1] - The market anticipates a significant impact on Bitcoin's price once quantitative easing begins [1]

Market Cycles & Historical Analysis - The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's four-year cycles are likely to continue, despite potential disturbances [1] - Bitcoin's history shows recurring patterns: a halving event, followed by an all-time high, then a dip and reset [2][3] - Past bull markets were driven by different factors: early adopters in 2013, retail investors in 2017, and institutions in 2021 [7][8][12][21] - Each cycle faced hurdles like exchange collapses (Mount Gox), ICO bubble bursts, and regulatory crackdowns [9][10][15][16] - The analysis highlights that human nature and market exuberance contribute to the cyclical pattern [17][19][20][55] Current Market & Future Risks - The current bull market (2025) is driven by favorable US regulations, potential Fed rate cuts, and the approval of spot Bitcoin and ETH ETFs [29][30][31] - Institutions hold over 10% of Bitcoin, potentially buffering volatility [32][33][34] - Risks include short-term pullbacks, profit-taking by institutions, and potential unwinding of leverage in the system [35][36][39] - The analysis suggests that the market is still macro-dependent, and any delays in Fed rate cuts or a flare-up in inflation could cause a violent retracement [42][43] Quantitative Easing (QE) & Tightening (QT) - Quantitative easing involves central banks buying assets, adding money, increasing the money supply, and lowering interest rates to stimulate growth [44][45] - Quantitative tightening involves central banks selling assets or letting them expire, decreasing the money supply, pushing rates up, and slowing growth to curb inflation [45][46] - Historical data shows that Bitcoin can hit all-time highs even as the Fed funds rate goes up [48]