Core Viewpoint - Analysts believe Bitcoin has reached a local bottom and predict a surge in liquidity will lead to a retest of record highs in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Bitcoin's price dropped approximately 3% to just over $107,000, influenced by $800 million in asset sales from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week [1]. - Despite the recent dip, October has seen $3.4 billion in ETF inflows, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's announcement to end quantitative tightening from December 1 is expected to reverse the liquidity drain, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin [3][4]. - Analysts anticipate further easing of liquidity once the US federal government shutdown concludes, which will enhance Treasury Department spending and bank reserves [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is shifting towards cautious optimism, with Bitcoin consolidating between $105,000 and $115,000 as traders await clearer signals from central banks [5]. - As ETF flows stabilize and become more balance-sheet-driven, volatility is expected to decrease, setting the stage for a potential upward movement in Bitcoin's price [5].

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, leading to differing views on monetary policy and the potential for rate cuts in December [2][8][17] - Jay Powell, the Fed Chair, indicated that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting uncertainty in the labor market and inflation levels [5][6][11] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, but inflation remains elevated at around 3%, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [3][6][12] 分组2 - Meta's recent bond sale of $30 billion received a record $125 billion in orders, indicating strong demand despite concerns over its spending pace [25][26] - The high yield market has slowed down significantly, with only $18 billion priced this month, the lowest since April, amidst emerging credit concerns [27][28] - Credit investors are cautious about the potential risks associated with large capital expenditures, particularly in the context of economic uncertainty [36][41]

Group 1 - Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) experienced a 6% decline in price, influenced by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's comments on interest rate cuts [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting concluded with a quarter-point interest rate cut, setting the federal funds rate between 3.75% and 4%, but Powell indicated that a further cut in December is uncertain [2][8] - Market expectations for another quarter-point rate cut in December dropped from 91% to approximately 75% following Powell's remarks, indicating reduced certainty [3] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency sector is significantly affected by macroeconomic trends and monetary policy, with cryptocurrencies generally performing better in lower interest rate environments [4] - The Federal Reserve plans to end quantitative tightening in November, which is expected to increase money circulation and positively impact cryptocurrencies [5] - Cardano is viewed as having potential due to its strong technical network, but it remains volatile and competitive, suggesting a recommendation for a smaller, speculative investment [6]

分组1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's rate cuts is seen as a significant factor influencing market movements, with a shift from a 95% probability of a December cut to about 70% after recent comments from JP Powell [2][4][5] - Powell's remarks indicate that the decision for a December cut is not predetermined, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [3][5] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) is perceived similarly to a potential rate cut, although the simultaneous occurrence of QT and rate cuts is unusual [6][7] 分组2: Consumer Behavior and Market Outlook - Consumer sentiment remains weak, yet spending continues, with real wages showing positive growth since June 2023, indicating resilience in the upper-end consumer market [11] - Investment opportunities may lie in companies that cater to the upper-end consumer while offering value, such as premium appliance brands [11][12] - The market is trading close to all-time highs, prompting discussions on where to allocate new investments for potential upside [10] 分组3: Gold and Safe Havens - The recent trade deal between the US and China may reduce the momentum of the gold rally, with opinions suggesting a more cautious outlook on gold prices [13][14] - A hawkish stance from the Fed could negatively impact gold prices and strengthen the dollar, affecting safe-haven investments [14] - In the bond market, there is still perceived value across the curve, particularly in municipal bonds, which are seen as attractive compared to corporate bonds [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price is projected to reach $150,000 by the end of the year despite a recent selloff following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [1][2]. Market Analysis - Annabelle Huang noted that the recent "sell the news" reaction after the Fed's 0.25% rate cut does not impact long-term bullish sentiment for Bitcoin [1]. - Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $111,400, down 12% from its all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6 [2]. - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced $470 million in outflows on October 29, but have seen over $4 billion in net positive inflows throughout October [2]. Liquidity and Volatility - Greg Magadini indicated that as long as liquidity remains easy, a rally in the crypto market is expected towards the end of the year [3]. - The current market dynamics, characterized by opposing narratives, may help reduce volatility and facilitate a gradual price increase [3]. - The Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting in December is crucial, with a 70% chance of another rate cut according to the CME FedWatch tool [4]. Macro Environment - Ed Yardeni expressed caution regarding potential further rate cuts this year, highlighting concerns among FOMC participants about financial instability due to easier monetary policy [5]. - The overall macro backdrop remains uncertain, with the market closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's quarter-point interest rate cut was anticipated, but the lack of clear signals for future cuts disappointed investors, leading to mixed stock market reactions. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered its main interest-rate target by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4% [6] - The decision included two dissents: one member favored no change, while another preferred a larger 50-basis-point cut [6] - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative-tightening program in December [2][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major U.S. stock indexes fell, with the Dow dropping almost 0.2%, the S&P 500 closing flat, and the Nasdaq Composite rising close to 0.6% for a record high [6] - Bond yields increased across the Treasury curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 7.4 basis points to almost 4.06%, impacting mortgage rates [3] - Market participants were surprised by the Fed's lack of commitment to further rate cuts, which affected bond market reactions [4][7] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors began the session optimistically, pushing major stock indexes higher, with the Dow briefly surpassing 48,000 for the first time [5] - Positive earnings reports and expectations for progress on U.S. trade deals with China and South Korea contributed to initial market optimism [5]

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com][Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]Moving the marketStocks took off in early trading today, hitting record highs as traders cheered the Feds widely anticipated rate cut and yet another tech sector rally.Nvidia led the pack, soaring over 4% and making Wall Street history by becoming the world’s first $5 trillion company, fueled by relentless demand for AI chips. AMD and Micron piggybacked on the momentum, each logging solid gains as well.The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,900 for ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut to support a softening labor market amid economic uncertainty [1] - The decision faced significant division within the FOMC, with one governor advocating for a larger cut and another opposing any reduction [1] - The rate cut occurred despite a federal government shutdown that limited access to critical economic data [2] - Markets experienced immediate volatility, with $300 million liquidated from crypto markets shortly after the Fed's announcement [2] - Bitcoin recovered to hold above $112,000 as traders assessed the implications of the rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening on December 1 [3] - The Fed acknowledged that job gains have slowed and risks to employment have risen, while inflation remains elevated [4] - The central bank's decision to halt balance sheet reduction indicates growing concern about liquidity conditions, with the balance sheet now below $6.6 trillion for the first time since 2020 [4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a December rate cut is uncertain, dampening expectations for further easing [5] - The ongoing government shutdown is affecting the Fed's policy deliberations and could impact the economy if it continues [5] - The shutdown has frozen most economic data releases, forcing reliance on outdated figures [6] - MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor predicts Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by year-end, reflecting a consensus among equity analysts in the Bitcoin industry [7]

you know, we we've we've we've just heard from you that that the um the discussion in December and the conclusion of the discussion is not a foregone conclusion. I'd like to just dig into that a little bit more about what sort of arguments were brought up. Was there any consideration for instance of the investment we're seeing in AI and some of the the generation of household wealth through rises in stock prices related to the AI boom.Thank you. You know, I wouldn't say that's a that's that's a factor in ev ...

CONCLUDED Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates, Quantitative Tightening, Powell Speech, and More Last Updated: Updated 4 hours ago Miran Wanted a Bigger Rate Cut–Schmid Wanted None By Sabrina Escobar Stephen Miran (L) and Jeffrey Schmid (R) (Getty Images(1); Bloomberg (1)) Fed governor Stephen Miran and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid were the sole dissenting votes at the October FOMC meeting. Miran voted against the committee's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, prefer ...