GDP & Economic Growth - US GDP for the third quarter showed a massive upside surprise, coming in at 43% versus a prior of 38% and a survey expectation of 33% [1] - The GDP uptick was unexpected by many [2] - Aggregate demand was growing at a rapid rate [5] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The unexpectedly high GDP figure raises questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 075 percentage points in September [5] - The GDP data may influence Fed officials as they consider recalibrating interest rates in January, especially given the divided opinions within the FOMC regarding the last rate cut [6][7] - The front end of the curve on the two-year saw a big spike up to 35351 in yields following the 43% GDP reading [3] Economic Data & Market Reaction - Durable goods came in much worse than expected, dropping by 22% [2] - The GDP data is considered stale due to delays caused by a government shutdown [1][3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to have the ability to cut interest rates in 2026 due to a significant pullback in November inflation [1] - The Dow and S&P 500 ended a four-day losing streak following a surprising slowdown in inflation, which traders interpreted as a positive sign for potential rate cuts next year [2] - Strong earnings from Micron, a memory-chip manufacturer, alleviated concerns regarding high valuations in the artificial intelligence sector [2] Group 2 - Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were mostly flat, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose by 0.2% [1]

WTF IT'S HAPPENING Rate Cut Incoming! Crypto Bulls Are Back? https://t.co/aWlXzvjAwx ...

Group 1 - Stocks are experiencing a rally following cooler than expected inflation data, but there are concerns regarding the reliability of this data due to changes in the data gathering process [1][2] - Economists express skepticism about the inflation report, with some suggesting that the data collection issues may distort the numbers, making it difficult to draw strong conclusions [2][3] - The bond market remains unimpressed by the inflation report, with yields on the 10-year and 2-year bonds showing little change, indicating a lack of confidence in the implications of the report [3][6] Group 2 - Housing inflation has become a contentious topic, with a reported monthly change of 0.13%, raising eyebrows among economists who are questioning the accuracy of the data [4] - Blackstone's CEO noted that the company is observing much lower rents in the real world, contrasting with the reported data, while Evercore ISI suggests that the report could still influence the Federal Reserve's decisions [5] - The complexity of the inflation report is acknowledged, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics facing challenges in data collection due to the government shutdown, leading to a report that may not fully reflect current economic conditions [9][10]

PRICES RISING 2.7% FROM A YEAR AGO. THAT WAS COOLER THAN EXPECTED. THE PRINT SENDING ODDS OF A MARCH RATE CUT TO OVER 50% RIGHT NOW.JOINING US NOW IS PIMCO GLOBAL ECONOMIC ADVISOR, FORMER FEDERAL RESERVE VICE CHAIR RICHARD CLARIDA. IT'S GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE. >> WELCOME BACK.YEAH. ALWAYS ENJOY IT. >> SO HOW MUCH DO YOU READ INTO THIS INFLATION PRINT.>> I THINK THERE'S SOME GOOD NEWS HERE. OBVIOUSLY DISTORTIONS WITH THE SHUTDOWN AND SOME SEASONALS. BUT I THINK YOU TAKE THE GOOD NEWS WHEN YOU CAN CAN GET IT. ...

Thursday's inflation data come with a number of caveats, but it keeps the rate cut dream alive, @jonathanjlevin says (via @opinion) https://t.co/uzGUTQoPAC ...

Market Trends & Global Economy - Asian stocks are under pressure due to concerns over tech valuations, with MSCI Asia down approximately 4% [1] - U S inflation data is a key focus, with potential to stabilize markets if goods inflation peak is confirmed, possibly leading to more Fed cuts in 2026 [2] - The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, influencing UK stock gains and pound valuation [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to hold rates, with focus on managing market expectations regarding future hikes amidst inflation below 2% [2] - European Union leaders are seeking to finalize a deal on unlocking frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine, facing resistance and potential severe consequences for EU's global influence if unsuccessful [4][6] Company News & Financial Performance - BP appointed Meg O'Neill, Woodside's CEO, as its first female CEO, signaling a potential return to focus on natural gas and oil [1][2] - Oracle's stock moved due to news of Blue Owl Capital not being involved in data center funding, raising concerns about financing for AI infrastructure buildout [1][2] - Cybersecurity firm Exein raised 100 million euros in new funding, aiming for M&A expansion and targeting consumer cybersecurity [11][12] - Robinhood is expanding into prediction markets, noting systematic trading strategies and potential for institutional adoption [4] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market is pricing in a BOE rate cut, with attention on the voting margin and potential for dovish signals [2] - The U K gilt market shows a divergence from European counterparts, with potential for further gains [5] - Germany's funding outlook, with an expected 140 billion dollars of net supply next year, is likely to drive Euro rates higher in 2026 [5] Geopolitical & Security Risks - The U S approved an 11 billion dollars arms sales package to Taiwan, likely to provoke a response from Beijing [4] - Cybersecurity risks are increasing due to geopolitical conditions, with potential for attacks causing physical damage to systems [15]

The case for a UK rate cut is looking more persuasive, but it’s not quite a done deal https://t.co/1lqWasXyJG ...

Is this a fluke or is it enough to comfort the hawks on the Bank of England who are worried about inflation longer term. I don't think it's a fluke, but I also think that the hawks on the Bank of England will still be there fretting about some of the structural stories in the background. So I think, you know, in the middle is Governor Bailey, you know, he's the he's the key voter that's going to decide what they'll do in December is certainly enough for him because I think the weakness is fairly broad versu ...

Let's bring in Sofi's Liz Thomas, New York Life Investments Lauren Goodwin, Morgan Stanley, Wealth Management's Ellen Zner. It's great to have everybody here on the desk with us. All right, Liz, you first.What do you think about what Mr. . Lakos had to say. Base case 7500, bull case 8,000.>> So, when I look at in 2026, first of all, to your point, not a lot of bears to be found. And I think that's warranted. There aren't a lot of really strong reasons to be bearish into 2026 aside from looking at the market ...