机构观点 2026年1月，多家机构更新评级，摩根士丹利将目标价上调至306美元，富国集团上调至338美元，机构 平均目标价约299美元，超配评级占比46%。行业分析指出，2026年酒店供给增速预计放缓，高线城市 入住率可能回升，推动RevPAR实现低个位数增长，或对希尔顿定价能力构成支撑。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网 2026年2月11日，希尔顿酒店发布2025年第四季度及全年财报。第四季度营收同比增长11% 至30.9亿美元，调整后每股收益为2.08美元，均超市场预期；全年营收达120.39亿美元，同比增长 7.74%，归母净利润为14.57亿美元。核心指标RevPAR（每间可用客房收入）在第四季度实现0.5%的小 幅增长，扭转了此前下滑趋势。然而，公司对2026年的盈利指引趋于谨慎，预计调整后每股收益为 8.65–8.77美元，低于市场预期的9.13美元，主要受美国旅游需求放缓影响。 股票近期走势 近期希尔顿股价呈现波动。截至2026年2月13日，收盘价为314.62美元，当日下跌2.34%；过去5个交易 日累计涨幅为0.08%，区间振幅达7.19%。成交额在2月11日显著放大 ...

February 10, 2026 10:18 AM GMT 中国内地/香港休闲与住宿行业 上调行业观点⸺多年转机 中国酒店 RevPAR 增长趋势正在改善。休闲需求依然具备韧 性，商务需求正在复苏，而供给增速正在放缓。需求与供给 增速趋于平衡状态，酒店价格压力因此缓解⸺这支持 RevPAR 转正，并支撑我们将行业观点上调至乐观。 我们将对中国酒店行业的观点从中性（In-line）上调至乐观（Attractive）：我们 认为 RevPAR 增长趋势已出现明确拐点。过去数年中，需求复苏一直被激进的供给 扩张所抵消；需求与供给增速正趋于平衡转好状态，这将支撑 RevPAR 转为正增 长，并推动更可持续的上行周期。 • 过去两年，RevPAR 累计下滑约 9%，目前正以约每年2% 的速度增长。 RevPAR 的三大核心驱动因素均已转为正向： 我们预计在多元化休闲需求、入境游复苏以及商务需求回暖的带动下，需求增速 将稳步增长，并有望达到或超过放缓中的供给增速轨迹。随着酒店价格压力逐步 缓解，RevPAR 增长有望延续至 2026 年以后。考虑到酒店行业较高的经营杠 杆，RevPAR 的回升预计将推动盈利增速由过去的 ...

We upgrade our view on China's hotel industry from In-Line to Attractive: We see a clear inflection in RevPAR dynamics. After several years of demand recovery being offset by aggressive supply additions, demand and supply growth are now converging, supporting a turn to positive RevPAR and a more durable up-cycle. • RevPAR declined ~9% cumulatively over the past two years and is now recovering at a ~2% pace. All three key drivers of RevPAR are now turning supportive: February 8, 2026 08:05 PM GMT Hong Kong/C ...

Core Insights - Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) reported a weighted average occupancy of 82.4% for December 2025, reflecting a 310 basis points increase year-over-year but a slight decline of 10 basis points from November 2025 [1] Group 1: Occupancy and Capacity - In Q4 2025, BKD's weighted average occupancy reached 82.5%, up from 79.4% a year ago and 81.8% in Q3 2025, indicating consistent growth throughout 2025 [2] - The company has the capacity to serve approximately 51,000 residents across 41 states [2] - BKD has improved its occupancy significantly from a pandemic low of 69.4% in March 2021, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [5] Group 2: Financial Performance - Resident fee revenues increased by 4.5% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with expectations for continued growth [3] - For 2025, BKD forecasts a 5.25-6% increase in average monthly senior housing resident fee revenue per available unit (RevPAR) and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $455 million to $460 million [3][10] Group 3: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BKD's Q4 2025 earnings is a loss of 16 cents per share, reflecting a 5.8% year-over-year improvement, although the company has struggled to meet earnings estimates consistently [4] - BKD has met earnings estimates only once in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 37.1% [4]

Core Insights - Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. has made significant progress in its strategic priority to reshape its portfolio by divesting underperforming Non-Core hotels, with eight Non-Core hotels expected to generate approximately $198 million in gross proceeds at an average multiple of nearly 43x [4][6] - The company anticipates accelerating its Non-Core disposition strategy over the next 12 months, aiming to own one of the highest quality hotel portfolios in the sector, with an expected Comparable RevPAR of $218 [4] - Year-to-date, the company has sold or entered into agreements for five Non-Core hotels, with closed transactions including the sale of the 316-room Hyatt Centric Fisherman's Wharf and a joint venture interest in the 559-room Capital Hilton DC [6] Operational Highlights - The estimated 2025 average RevPAR and Adjusted Hotel EBITDA margin for the eight Non-Core hotels is projected to be $124 and 7%, respectively [6] - Preliminary November Comparable RevPAR increased approximately 2%, driven by strong results in Hawaii, New York, Denver, and Orlando, with increases of approximately 19%, 10%, 8%, and 6% respectively [6] - The Hilton Hawaiian Village Waikiki Beach Resort hotel in Honolulu reported significant RevPAR increases of 20% and 26% in October and November, contributing approximately 300 basis points to the portfolio's Comparable RevPAR growth [6] Company Overview - Park Hotels & Resorts is one of the largest publicly-traded lodging REITs, with a diverse portfolio of 37 premium-branded hotels and resorts, totaling approximately 24,000 rooms located primarily in prime city center and resort locations [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global RevPAR midpoint for the year was initially projected at 3% but has been adjusted to 2% [4] - October RevPAR was globally at 2%, with the U.S. down by 20 basis points and international RevPAR at 7% [7][8] - Group bookings are expected to be positive, but have underperformed relative to initial expectations [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Leisure demand has remained strong, particularly in luxury and premium sectors, while group and business travel (BT) have underperformed [5][12] - Group RevPAR is expected to be positive, with group bookings up 8% in the U.S. [22][24] - Select-service hotels have shown flat demand, which is better than overall trends [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market has shown some uncertainty due to government shutdowns and economic conditions, impacting RevPAR [6][21] - International markets have performed better than the U.S., with a notable 7% RevPAR in October [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on strategic partnerships and development, with a pipeline of 150 mid-scale hotels in the U.S. [13] - There is an emphasis on conversions and hotel transactions as a means to drive growth in 2026 [36][37] - The company is actively engaging with AI technologies to enhance distribution and booking processes [51][54] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about leisure travel and luxury segments, despite potential economic downturns [15][17] - The company is preparing for potential interest rate cuts and their impact on hotel transactions [36] - The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved performance in the U.S. market [10][21] Other Important Information - The company faced challenges with Sonder, which filed for bankruptcy, but views this as a learning experience for future partnerships [28][32] - The upcoming renegotiation of credit card partnerships is expected to provide potential upside to Adjusted EBITDA [43][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: How is the demand environment post-third quarter earnings? - Management noted that leisure demand has remained strong, while group and business travel have underperformed due to economic uncertainties [5][6] Question: What are the expectations for group bookings next year? - Group bookings are expected to remain strong, with an 8% increase noted in the U.S. [22][24] Question: What lessons were learned from the Sonder experience? - The company emphasized the importance of due diligence and financial capabilities of partners, while still pursuing strategic deals [32] Question: What is the outlook for credit card partnerships? - Management is optimistic about the upcoming negotiations and expects to improve their position with credit card partners [43][44] Question: How is the company utilizing AI in distribution? - The company is actively engaging with AI technologies to enhance booking processes, though it is still in early stages [51][54]

Core Insights - Marriott International, Inc. has a market cap of approximately $81.8 billion and operates over 9,400 properties across 144 countries, making it one of the largest hospitality companies globally [1] - The company's loyalty program, Marriott Bonvoy, is a significant strength that enhances customer loyalty and drives repeat stays [2] Financial Performance - In Q3, Marriott reported total revenue of $6.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, slightly exceeding analyst expectations [5] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $2.47, a 9.3% increase from the previous year, surpassing consensus estimates of $2.41 [5] - Global RevPAR increased by 0.5%, with International RevPAR rising by 2.6%, while U.S. & Canada RevPAR saw a decline of 0.4% due to softer demand in lower-tier hotel segments [5] Stock Performance - Marriott's shares have increased by 12.8% over the past three months, reaching around its 52-week high of $307.52 [3] - Year-to-date, MAR stock is up 9.3%, outperforming the AdvisorShares Hotel ETF (BEDZ), which has seen a marginal decline [4] - Over the past 52 weeks, MAR shares have gained 6.7%, while BEDZ has dropped by 2.1% [4] Competitive Landscape - Despite Marriott's strong performance, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. has outperformed MAR stock, with Hilton shares climbing 13.8% over the past 52 weeks and 15.3% year-to-date [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company has shown a significant recovery in Q3, with revenue exceeding guidance and a notable increase in performance compared to previous quarters. The hotel revenue for Q3 reached approximately 30.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [11] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in Q4, with projected revenue growth of 2-6% and domestic growth of 3-7%. The anticipated growth in franchise revenue is between 17-21% year-on-year [14][15] - The company is focusing on optimizing revenue management and strengthening direct sales channels, which has led to a slight recovery in domestic RevPAR, with a mixed RevPAR of 256 yuan, down only 0.1% year-on-year [12] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.96 billion yuan, up 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous guidance of 2-6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, a 15.4% increase year-on-year [11] - The company’s domestic same-store RevPAR decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, showing a gradual recovery compared to earlier quarters [12] Membership and Revenue Management - The number of members in the company's loyalty program exceeded 300 million, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%. Member bookings increased by 19.7%, accounting for 74% of total room nights [12] - The company has successfully implemented revenue management strategies, resulting in a positive year-on-year growth in average daily rate (ADR) of 0.9% [12] Expansion and Profitability - The company opened 2,038 new stores and closed 483, resulting in a net increase of 1,555 stores. The total number of operating hotels reached 12,600, with a market share estimated at 11% [13] - Franchise revenue and gross operating profit (GOP) increased by 27.4% and 28.6% year-on-year, respectively, while direct store revenue and GOP decreased by 5.5% and 24.7% [13] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a stable or slight increase in domestic RevPAR in Q4, with overall core indicators expected to maintain a healthy development trend [14] - The management expects to exceed the initial target of opening 2,300 new hotels by the end of the year, supported by improved signing and conversion rates [13] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue growth projections for 2025-2027, expecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, 5.8%, and 6.2%, respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 4.44 billion, 5.17 billion, and 5.78 billion yuan for the same period [15]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in mindset among the new generation of hotel investors, particularly focusing on the experiences of a young investor, Mr. Lin, who is navigating the challenges of the hotel industry in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Changing Perspectives in Hotel Investment - The previous generation of hotel investors relied heavily on international brands for credibility and success, viewing hotels as status symbols rather than cash flow generators [3][5]. - Mr. Lin's family faced significant financial difficulties due to over-reliance on high-end international hotel brands, leading to a reevaluation of investment strategies [5][9]. - The new generation prioritizes cash flow and operational efficiency over brand prestige, emphasizing the need for flexible contracts and clear ROI [10][18]. Group 2: Practical Investment Strategies - Mr. Lin proposes a shift towards more adaptable hotel brands that understand the local market, such as Huazhu's City Inn and Atour's new lifestyle brand, rather than sticking to traditional high-end international brands [8][18]. - The younger generation of hotel investors is more educated in hotel management and financial modeling, leading to a more analytical approach to investment [14][15]. - Key principles for the new generation include flexible contract terms, clear investment returns, and adaptable exit strategies, reflecting a pragmatic approach to hotel management [20][22][25]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The traditional negotiation framework with international hotel brands is becoming less effective as new investors demand more control and flexibility in contracts [19][20]. - The emergence of local hotel brands that can meet the demands of the new generation is changing the competitive landscape, as these investors are less willing to accept long-term contracts that limit their options [21][25]. - The focus is shifting from brand prestige to operational performance, with an emphasis on data-driven decision-making and financial viability [26].

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in mindset among the new generation of hotel investors, moving away from reliance on international brands and focusing on cash flow and operational efficiency [1][3][11] Group 1: Changing Perspectives in Hotel Investment - The younger generation, represented by Lin, is less romantic about high-end international hotel brands and more pragmatic about cash flow management [4][6] - Lin's father, a traditional investor, still believes in the prestige of international brands, while Lin emphasizes the need for flexible contracts and clear ROI [2][3][6] - The new generation is more educated in hotel management and financial models, leading them to prioritize profitability over brand prestige [5][9] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Principles - Lin outlines four key principles for hotel investment: prioritize cash flow, ensure flexible contracts, maintain controllable investments, and have exit strategies [6][8] - The trend among new investors is to avoid long-term contracts that lock them into unfavorable conditions, preferring shorter agreements with local brands [8][10] - There is a growing emphasis on performance metrics and ROI calculations before making investment decisions, contrasting with the previous generation's approach [7][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the traditional negotiation tactics of international hotel groups are becoming less effective with the new generation of investors [8][9] - The younger investors are redefining what constitutes a reasonable partnership, focusing on flexibility and performance rather than brand prestige [8][11] - The future of hotel investment is expected to be driven by data and operational efficiency, rather than reliance on brand names [10][11]