Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to BYD (1211 HK), Desay SV (002920 CH), and Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH) [54][60][65]. Core Insights - The China auto market has shown another double-digit year-on-year growth, with wholesale unit deliveries reaching 2.5 million units in June, marking a 14.5% increase year-on-year and a 7.8% increase month-on-month [1][7]. - The electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing suboptimal growth, with EV penetration at 52.7% in June, which is below expectations and historical highs [1][7]. - Concerns are raised regarding the slowing growth of EV penetration, potentially due to aggressive pricing strategies from internal combustion engine (ICE) car manufacturers and the upcoming 50% cut to EV purchase tax exemptions starting next year [2][7]. Summary by Sections China Auto Market Performance - In 1H25, the China auto market reported a total of 13.5 million wholesale shipments, reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year growth, while retail sales (excluding minivans) reached 10.9 million units, up 10.8% year-on-year [8]. - The overall growth momentum in 1H25 was slightly above expectations, supported by government subsidies for scrapping and trade-in programs [8]. Electric Vehicle Market - Monthly retail sales of PV EVs reached 1.1 million units in June, representing a 30.2% year-on-year increase [1][9]. - The report highlights that BEVs outperformed PHEVs/EREVs in terms of growth, with BEVs showing 45% year-on-year growth in wholesale shipments during 1H25 [9]. OEM Strategies and Market Dynamics - OEMs are currently preparing their strategies for 2H25, with expectations of model launches and adjustments in response to government policies against over-competition [3]. - BYD remains a top pick due to its strategies aimed at regaining market share, including reducing SKUs and improving model features without price increases [4]. Battery Market Insights - EV battery installations grew by 35.9% year-on-year to 58.2 GWh in June, with total installations for 1H25 reaching 300 GWh, a 47.3% increase year-on-year [5]. - CATL and BYD maintained their market leadership in the battery sector, holding 43.7% and 21.5% market shares, respectively [5]. Lithium Market Trends - The price of lithium carbonate in China rebounded from a low of CNY 60,000 per tonne in late June to CNY 63,000 per tonne in early July [5][48]. - The report anticipates potential downside risks to lithium production in July due to weakened demand and government interventions [5][48].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the China Autos industry [3]. Core Insights - The report forecasts 28.3 million units of passenger vehicle (PV) sales in China for 2025, representing a 3% year-over-year increase, and 14.9 million units of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, which is a 22% year-over-year increase [9][10]. - The penetration of L2+ autonomous driving is expected to reach 25% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 15% [15][17]. - The wholesale NEV penetration reached 50% in June 2025, indicating a significant shift towards electric vehicles [20]. - The report highlights the increasing competition in the EV market, with local brands gaining market share from foreign brands [43][48]. Market Overview - The China auto industry is projected to see a total of 28.3 million PV sales in 2025, with a breakdown of 22.6 million domestic sales and 5.7 million exports [9]. - NEV sales are expected to grow significantly, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) contributing to this growth [9]. - The report notes that Asia and Europe accounted for over 65% of China's vehicle exports in the year-to-date 2025 [51]. Competitive Landscape - The report discusses the intensifying competition in the EV market, particularly from tech heavyweights collaborating with local OEMs to develop smart EVs [43][45]. - Local brands are continuing to gain share from foreign brands, with a notable increase in market share for brands like BYD and Geely [48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of collaborations among OEMs to enhance innovation and reduce costs in vehicle development [64][67]. Future Trends - The report identifies key focuses for auto OEMs, including AI-enabled smart cockpits, autonomous vehicles, and eVTOLs [70]. - It also highlights the ongoing development of autonomous driving capabilities, with several companies advancing their technologies to achieve higher levels of automation [73][75].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total revenues reached RMB 12 billion, an increase of 21.5% year over year but a decrease of 38.9% quarter over quarter [19] - Vehicle sales were RMB 9.9 billion, up 18.6% year over year and down 43.1% quarter over quarter [19] - Overall gross margin improved to 7.6% compared to 4.9% in Q1 last year, but decreased from 11.7% last quarter [21] - Vehicle gross margin was 10.2%, up from 9.2% year over year but down from 13.1% last quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - NIO delivered 42,094 smart EVs in Q1 2025, a 40.1% increase year over year, with 27,313 from NIO and 14,781 from Envoy [7] - The company expects total deliveries in Q2 to be between 147,000, representing a growth of 25.5% to 30.7% year over year [8] - The new ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5P were launched in late May, contributing to the expected increase in deliveries [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NIO operates 184 NIO Houses and 461 NIO Spaces, with 391 service centers and 66 delivery centers [14] - The company has 3,408 power swap stations worldwide, including 989 on highways in China, providing over 75 million swaps to users [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - NIO aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs through various measures, including consolidating teams and prioritizing high-value projects [17] - The company plans to continue expanding its power swap network and has partnered with over 10 local partners in more than 15 core markets worldwide [15] - NIO is focusing on launching multiple core models in the second half of 2025 to accelerate deliveries and improve financial performance [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that 2025 is a challenging year for product launches, but expects stronger sales and improved margins in Q3 and Q4 [16] - The company is confident in achieving breakeven in Q4 2025, with a target of 25,000 monthly deliveries for both NIO and Envoy brands [68] - Management emphasized the importance of balancing sales volume with vehicle gross margin to ensure profitability [30] Other Important Information - R&D expenses were RMB 3.2 billion, up 11.1% year over year, while SG&A expenses were RMB 4.4 billion, up 46.8% year over year [22][23] - The company completed a share offering in Hong Kong, raising over HKD 4 billion, which is expected to support its financial position [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the volume sales and guidance for Q2 - Management expects to deliver around 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles in Q2, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving operational efficiency [28][30] Question: About cost reduction measures - Management has implemented cost control measures and expects to see significant improvements in R&D and SG&A expenses in the second half of the year [32][38] Question: Feedback on new models and autonomous driving features - Positive feedback has been received for the new models, with improvements in smart driving features and safety [44][46] Question: Strategy for enhancing sales volume of Envoy brand - Management noted that the L60 model has seen increased orders and expects further growth with the upcoming L90 launch [51][56] Question: Production capacity and working capital management - Current production capacity is sufficient to meet Q4 delivery targets, and management is focused on improving cash flow and managing working capital effectively [104][106]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues reached RMB 12 billion, an increase of 21.5% year over year but a decrease of 38.9% quarter over quarter [16] - Vehicle sales were RMB 9.9 billion, up 18.6% year over year and down 43.1% quarter over quarter [16] - Vehicle gross margin was 10.2%, compared to 9.2% in Q1 last year and 13.1% last quarter [18] - Overall gross margin was 7.6%, up from 4.9% in Q1 last year but down from 11.7% last quarter [19] - Net loss was RMB 6.8 billion, an increase of 30.2% year over year and a decrease of 5.1% quarter over quarter [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company delivered 42,094 smart EVs, up 40.1% year over year, including 27,313 from NIO and 14,781 from Envoy [5][6] - Deliveries in April and May totaled 946,231, indicating a strong start for the new models [5] - The new ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5P were launched in late May, with expectations of total deliveries in Q2 between 147,000, representing 25.5% to 30.7% growth year over year [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NIO operates 184 NIO Houses and 461 NIO Spaces, with 391 service centers and 66 delivery centers [11] - The company has 3,408 power swap stations worldwide, providing over 75 million swaps to users [11] - NIO has partnered with more than 10 local partners in over 15 core markets worldwide for international expansion [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs across R&D, supply chain, sales, and service functions [14] - NIO plans to launch multiple core models in the second half of 2025, expecting deliveries to accelerate from Q3 [13] - The company is focusing on balancing sales volume with selling prices to improve gross profit [27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that 2025 is a challenging year for product launches, but they expect stronger sales and improved efficiency in the second half [13] - The company is confident in achieving breakeven in Q4, with operational targets set for vehicle gross margin and expense control [64] - Management emphasized the importance of cost reduction measures and operational efficiency improvements to enhance financial performance [34][88] Other Important Information - NIO completed a share offering in Hong Kong, raising over HKD 4 billion, which is expected to support future growth [13] - The company is implementing a new mechanism to improve R&D efficiency by consolidating resources across brands [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Volume sales guidance for Q2 - Management expects to deliver around 72,000 to 75,000 units in Q2, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving vehicle gross margins [26][28] Question: Cost reduction efforts - Management has implemented cost control measures and expects to see significant improvements in R&D and SG&A expenses in the second half of the year [30][34] Question: Feedback on new models and autonomous driving - Positive feedback has been received for the new world model, with improvements in active safety features and overall driving experience [40][42] Question: Strategy for Envoy brand and sales expectations - Management noted that the L60 has seen a 40% increase in monthly deliveries, and they expect continued growth with the upcoming L90 launch [47][52] Question: Cash flow improvements and management - Management highlighted the importance of improving operating cash flow through increased sales volume and cost control measures [87][88] Question: Overseas market strategy - The company is shifting to a partnership model for international expansion, focusing on long-term growth rather than aggressive volume targets [94] Question: Production capacity for Q4 - Current production capacity is sufficient to meet Q4 delivery targets, with plans to add a third factory in September [98] Question: Working capital and cash conversion cycle - Management acknowledged longer cash conversion cycles but is transitioning to an inventory-based sales model to better meet consumer demand [100]

Summary of China Autos Overview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China automotive industry**, particularly the **passenger vehicle (PV)** and **new energy vehicle (NEV)** segments [11][15]. - The overall industry view is categorized as **In-Line** by Morgan Stanley [3]. Key Forecasts - **Passenger Vehicle Sales**: Estimated at **28.3 million units** in 2025, reflecting a **3% year-over-year (YoY)** growth [11][15]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: Projected at **14.9 million units** in 2025, indicating a **21% YoY** increase [11][15]. - **Wholesale NEV penetration** is expected to recover to **46%** in February 2025 [22]. Market Dynamics - The **NEV market** is expected to see a significant increase in penetration, with **PHEVs (including EREVs)** accounting for approximately **40%** of NEV sales [28]. - The **L2+ autonomous driving penetration** forecast has been raised to **25%** in 2025, up from a previous estimate of **15%** [17][19]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights **intensifying competition** in the China EV market, with local brands gaining market share from foreign brands [37][43]. - **Tech heavyweights** are entering the market, partnering with local OEMs to develop smart EVs and autonomous driving solutions [40][39]. Export and Trade Barriers - **Asia and Europe** accounted for over **70%** of China's vehicle exports in 2024 [48]. - Recent trade barriers have been raised, including a **102.5% tariff on Chinese EVs** in the USA and increased tariffs in the EU [50]. Company Insights - **BYD** is expanding its offshore production capacity with plans for new facilities in **Thailand, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Indonesia, and Turkey** [54]. - The report indicates that **local brands** continue to gain share from foreign brands, with **BYD** leading in NEV market share [34][43]. Pricing and Discounts - Retail discounts and price cuts in the automotive sector have stabilized but remain steep, indicating ongoing competitive pressures [25]. Conclusion - The China automotive industry is poised for growth, particularly in the NEV segment, despite challenges from trade barriers and increasing competition. Local brands are expected to continue gaining market share, supported by strategic partnerships and technological advancements.