Market Sentiment - The market currently feels uncomfortable due to elevated valuations, indicating potential overvaluation concerns [1]. Investment Strategy - The focus is on identifying durable businesses with strong cash-flow potential through a combination of macro analysis and bottom-up stock research [1].

With 2026 starting the S&P 500 index ( SPX ) already up 1.5%, it is time for us stock pickers to look for companies that could outperform the broader market this year and beyond.Hi! I'm a passionate investor who has been researching publically traded companies for over 6 years. My primary focus is on identifying great businesses at reasonable prices and holding them for the long term but I also dive into trend following strategies from time to time. While I have a slight bias toward technology companies, I ...

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index (SPX) has started 2026 with a 1.5% increase, indicating a favorable market environment for stock pickers to identify companies that may outperform the broader market this year and beyond [1] Group 2 - The focus is on identifying great businesses at reasonable prices for long-term investment, with a slight bias towards technology companies while also considering opportunities in crypto and global markets [2]

Group 1 - Warren Buffett has officially stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, passing the role to Greg Abel, who will now be responsible for the conglomerate's stock picks [1] - The change in leadership raises questions about how Berkshire's stock-picking strategy may evolve under Abel's guidance [2] - Abel's background in the energy sector may influence Berkshire's investment decisions, particularly regarding Occidental Petroleum, where the company already owns 27% [4][5] Group 2 - Buffett's historical aversion to technology stocks may not be shared by Abel, who could consider increasing Berkshire's stake in Alphabet, which is currently valued at over $5 billion [6][8] - The existing position in Alphabet represents less than 2% of Berkshire's total stock portfolio, suggesting potential for further investment [6] - Abel's approach may focus on consolidating positions in well-established growth companies like Alphabet, contrasting with Buffett's previous strategy [8]

Core Insights - A small group of technology stocks, referred to as the "Magnificent Seven," has dominated market returns in 2025, continuing a trend observed for nearly a decade, leading to increased frustration among investors [1][9] - Approximately $1 trillion was withdrawn from active equity mutual funds throughout the year, marking the steepest net outflow in the current cycle, while passive equity exchange-traded funds attracted over $600 billion [2][9] - The concentration of returns among a few stocks has made it challenging for active managers to outperform, as deviating from benchmark weights can lead to underperformance [3][10] Market Participation - In the first half of the year, less than 20% of stocks rose in tandem with the broader market, indicating narrow participation, which can negatively impact relative performance when gains are driven by a limited number of stocks [6][10] - The S&P 500 outperformed its equal-weighted counterpart throughout the year, presenting a dilemma for investors: either underweight the largest stocks and risk underperformance or align closely with the index and struggle to justify the costs of active management [7][10] Performance Metrics - 73% of equity funds in the US underperformed their benchmarks in 2025, the fourth highest rate of underperformance since 2007, exacerbated by a recovery from April's tariff concerns and a surge in enthusiasm for artificial intelligence [7][10] - Dimensional Fund Advisors LP's International Small Cap Value Portfolio, valued at $14 billion, achieved a return of over 50% this year, significantly outperforming both its benchmark and major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, by focusing on a diverse range of approximately 1,800 stocks primarily outside the US [8][10]

Bloomberg The last thing a diversified fund manager wants is to run a portfolio dominated by just seven technology companies — all American, all megacap, clustered in the same corner of the economy. Yet as the S&P 500 pushed to fresh records this week, investors were again forced to confront a painful reality: Keeping pace with the market has largely meant owning little else. A small, tightly linked group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in plac ...

Group 1 - Stone Fox Capital is a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) based in Oklahoma, led by Mark Holder, a CPA with extensive experience in investing and portfolio management [1] - Mark Holder has 30 years of investing experience, including 15 years as a portfolio manager, and leads the investing group Out Fox The Street [1] - The investing group offers stock picks, deep research, model portfolios, daily updates, real-time alerts, and community engagement for readers [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that the information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell securities [3] - It is highlighted that past performance does not guarantee future results, and no specific investment recommendations are made [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming the sustainability of stock trends for profitable short-term investing, highlighting the need for sound fundamentals and positive earnings estimates to maintain momentum. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The trend is a crucial factor in short-term investing, and confirming its sustainability is essential for profitability [1][2] - A predefined "Recent Price Strength" screen can help identify stocks on an uptrend with strong fundamentals, indicating bullishness [3] Group 2: Company Analysis - Helios Technologies (HLIO) - Helios Technologies (HLIO) has shown a solid price increase of 5% over the past 12 weeks, indicating investor confidence in its potential upside [4] - The stock has also increased by 6.1% over the last four weeks, suggesting that the upward trend is still intact [5] - HLIO is trading at 92.7% of its 52-week high-low range, indicating a potential breakout [6] Group 3: Fundamental Strength - HLIO holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate revisions and EPS surprises [6] - The stock has an Average Broker Recommendation of 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting high optimism from the brokerage community regarding its near-term price performance [7] Group 4: Additional Insights - The article suggests that HLIO's price trend is unlikely to reverse soon, and there are other stocks that also meet the "Recent Price Strength" criteria for potential investment [8] - The Zacks Rank system has a strong historical performance, with Rank 1 stocks generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing persistent inflation and slowing job growth, leading the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the third time this year, while tariffs and supply-chain issues are impacting economic growth [1] - Retail investors are finding it challenging to interpret market signals and achieve solid returns in the current environment [1] Stock Selection Strategy - Traditional stock-picking methods focusing on sales growth are recommended, as sales growth offers a more reliable evaluation compared to earnings metrics [2][3] - Companies such as Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT), RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR), Ameren Corporation (AEE), Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ), and FedEx Corporation (FDX) are highlighted for their strong sales growth and solid cash flow positions [2][10] Importance of Sales Growth - Sales growth is a clear indicator of a company's business momentum, reflecting genuine demand and market position [3] - Consistent sales growth can predict future earnings improvement and shareholder value creation [3][4] - Revenue trends are valuable both absolutely and relatively, supporting predictable cash flows and enabling management to reinvest in operations [4] Screening Criteria for Stocks - Stocks are shortlisted based on criteria including 5-Year Historical Sales Growth greater than industry average and Cash Flow exceeding $500 million [5] - Additional factors include a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio lower than the industry average, positive sales estimate revisions, high operating margins, and Return on Equity (ROE) above 5% [6][7][8] Highlighted Stocks - Vertiv (VRT) is expected to have a sales growth rate of 27.5% for 2025 and holds a Zacks Rank 1 [10][11] - Ameren (AEE) is projected to grow sales by 17.7% in 2025 and has a Zacks Rank 2 [10][13] - Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) anticipates a sales growth of 5.9% for 2025, also holding a Zacks Rank 2 [10][14] - FedEx (FDX) expects a sales increase of 4.6% in fiscal 2026, with a Zacks Rank 2 [10][15] - RenaissanceRe (RNR) has a lower expected sales growth of 3.4% for 2025 but maintains a Zacks Rank 1 [10][12]

Folks, my next guest, uh, he did not win the chief executive award this year, but give him some time because he just started his own firm and, uh, he's off to the races. I want to bring in a Humulous Investment Strategy CEO and CIO, Brian Bellski. All right, Brian, the first question is obviously uh, you know, with what we've heard so far, a lot of changes on the economic assumptions.We got three descents. Some thought we'd have more than that, a hawkish cut. What are your thoughts.>> I like the dissension ...