Our weekly podcast on China. This week, the trade weapons are holstered, but neither side has left the battlefield https://t.co/LMeD5mmNJU ...

But Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management, said: “What’s creeping in is this narrative about AI and when business plans will be demonstrated to guide investors about when they will see profits from the AI investments.”“Those companies are leading the way and capturing almost all the value in AI. They are able to secure the infrastructure required to serve their customers and are all seeing a positive inflection point in demand.”Gil Luria, of wealth managers D.A. Davidson, told CNBC: “The ma ...

Core Viewpoint - Samfine Creation Holdings Group Limited reported its unaudited financial results for the six months ended June 30, 2025, showing a stable revenue but significant increase in expenses leading to a substantial net loss compared to the same period in 2024 [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025, was HK$82,121,233 (US$10,461,437), reflecting a marginal increase of 0.2% from HK$81,934,259 in the same period of 2024 [2][8]. - General and administrative expenses surged by 81.4% to HK$20,105,220 (US$2,561,207) from HK$11,081,674 in the prior year, primarily due to increased legal and professional fees [3]. - Selling and marketing expenses rose by 59.3% to HK$8,720,599 (US$1,110,918) from HK$5,474,255, driven by higher marketing and promotion costs [4]. - The net loss increased dramatically by 1,120.7% to HK$8,457,024 (US$1,077,340) from a net income of HK$828,511 in the same period of 2024, attributed to significant marketing expenses and the impact of the trade war on sales growth [5][8]. Company Overview - Samfine Creation Holdings Group Limited is a one-stop printing service provider based in Hong Kong, with over 20 years of experience in the printing industry, offering a variety of printed products [6]. - The company's customer base primarily consists of book traders in Hong Kong, with clients located globally, mainly in the U.S. and Europe [6].

Trade & Tariffs - Trade war discussions heavily involve soybeans, especially below 70 cents [1] - The conversation between Trump and Xi is centered around tariffs and the trade war [3] Political Mentions - Trump mentions "Biden" an average of 2.7 times per appearance [1] - Trump has mentioned "Biden" 111 times this month [1] Geopolitical & Technological Focus - Increased mentions of "Nuclear" by Trump recently [1] - AI is a key battleground between the two countries, particularly regarding chips and processors [2]

Group 1 - The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, has cut interest rates for the second time this year, reducing the rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.75%-4% [1] - The decision to cut rates was made despite the government shutdown, which has frozen non-essential government functions and delayed the release of key economic data [2] - Inflation data showed a rise to 3% in September, which is 1 percentage point above the Fed's target of 2%, but lower than economists' expectations, allowing for the rate cut [3] Group 2 - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned that the US economy is expected to grow less, and goods may become more expensive due to increased import taxes and supply disruptions [4] - President Trump has expressed frustration with the Fed, particularly targeting Powell's leadership and attempting to remove a rate-setter from her position [5][6] - The anticipation of an interest rate cut has positively influenced US and European stock markets, leading to record highs in major stock indexes [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut, impacting Bitcoin and other markets this week [1][2]. Interest Rate Impact on Bitcoin - Lower interest rates generally benefit Bitcoin as they lead investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets [2]. - The anticipated rate cut may not lead to an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, as such cuts are often "priced in" by the market [3]. Market Reactions and Other Influences - The crypto market's response to the Fed's decision may be muted due to prior expectations [3]. - Other significant events, such as the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, could influence market sentiment and Bitcoin's performance [5]. - Earnings reports from major tech companies, collectively valued at $15 trillion, may also impact the stock market and Bitcoin [6].

Group 1 - The prospect of a U.S.-China trade deal has positively impacted market performance, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq reaching record highs [1] - The inclusion of China in technology forecasts is expected to create an optimistic outlook for U.S. tech companies, as highlighted by Nvidia's current quarter estimates excluding shipments to China [2] - A formal trade agreement could lead Big Tech to raise their guidance, potentially driving further market growth dominated by technology stocks [3] Group 2 - Reports indicate that China may ease its unofficial boycott of U.S. soybeans as part of the trade agreement, which would benefit U.S. soybean farmers [4] - The ongoing trade tensions have affected daily life and economic conditions, suggesting that a truce could provide relief for various sectors, including agriculture [5]

Core Insights - The stock market under President Trump's influence has become highly volatile, reacting sharply to policy announcements and social media posts [1][7][14] - Recent trade agreements with Southeast Asian nations and a tentative deal with China have led to significant market gains, despite concerns over one-sided benefits [2][4][5][12] Trade Agreements - President Trump's Asia tour resulted in trade frameworks with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, aimed at reducing tariffs on U.S. goods and securing investments, with Malaysia committing $150 billion to U.S. sectors [2][3] - The agreements appear to favor the U.S., as Southeast Asian countries do not receive equivalent reductions in tariffs for their exports to the U.S., leading to a decline in Malaysia's stock market [3] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of a tentative trade agreement with China, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened above 47,530.09 and closed up 0.69%, while the S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 6861.62, closing up 1.22% [5] - The tech sector experienced notable gains, with Qualcomm rising 11% to 13% and Nvidia increasing between 2% and 3.6%, reflecting investor optimism amid reduced trade tensions [6] Canadian Trade Relations - President Trump announced a 10% tariff on Canada due to an advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan, which he deemed "fraudulent," leading to the termination of trade talks with Canada [8][9] - Analysts suggest this impulsive tariff could cost American consumers $50 billion, highlighting the unpredictable nature of trade policy under the current administration [10] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is characterized by a mix of acceptance and caution, with many adapting to Trump's negotiating style and the volatility it brings [11] - Despite recent market highs, underlying uncertainties persist, with a significant percentage of businesses postponing investments due to tariff-related uncertainties [12] Social Media Influence - President Trump's posts on Truth Social have been shown to impact market sentiment, with his reassurances leading to temporary market recoveries [7][13] - The stock of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. remains volatile, reflecting the unpredictable nature of sentiment-driven investing [13]

Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 reached a record high of 6,875, closing up 1.2% and maintaining weeks of positive momentum [1] - The Nasdaq Composite, driven by tech companies like Tesla (up 4.3%), Alphabet (up 3.6%), and Nvidia (up 2.8%), closed up almost 2% at a new record high of 23,637 [3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed at a record high of 47,544 points, increasing by 0.7% [3] Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - Gold futures fell below $4,000, dropping more than 3% on the day, marking its fifth price drop in the last six trading sessions [2] - The decline in gold prices followed a significant drop of over 5% on Tuesday, the largest single-day decline in more than a decade, as investors took profits after a historic surge [2] Group 3: Trade Relations and Implications - The U.S. and China reached a framework for a trade deal, potentially averting the 100% tariffs threatened by President Trump [3] - The trade discussions are set to continue with a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping [4] - A successful trade deal could delay China's rare earth export requirements and may include the resumption of Chinese purchases of American soybeans, which have not occurred since April [6]

Core Insights - Malaysia's economy has received a strong upgrade following its performance in Q3 2025, indicating resilience amid trade war concerns and a slowing global economy [1] - The positive momentum in Malaysia's economy is expected to continue into 2026, suggesting potential for further growth [1]