Group 1 - The Treasury market has experienced significant volatility, with 10-year yields currently at 4.14%, up four basis points for the week, while two-year yields have also increased by four basis points [2] - The performance of the Treasury market is closely linked to stock market movements, particularly the S&P futures, which trade nearly 24 hours and show a correlation with Treasury yields [2] - European counterparts, particularly the UK and France, are facing fiscal challenges, with the UK having a £20 billion budget deficit, leading to rising yields in their bond markets [3][4] Group 2 - Despite the upward trend in yields, the Treasury market has not reached its highest yield close for the month, indicating a persistent expectation of high yields [5] - The relationship between equity markets and Treasury yields is highlighted, where declines in equities lead to lower Treasury yields, and recoveries in equities result in rising yields [6]

Market Volatility & Treasury Yields - Treasury market experienced volatility this week, with yields ending near where they started [1] - 10-year Treasury yield is up approximately 4 basis points (0.04%) for the week, closing at 414 [2] - 2-year Treasury yield is also up approximately 4 basis points (0.04%) for the week [2] - Stock market performance, particularly S&P futures, is currently a significant driver of Treasury yields [2] European Debt & Fiscal Issues - UK guilt yields are at six-week highs due to a 20 billion pound (approximately $25 billion USD) hole in their fiscal budget [3] - France faces a similar scenario with debt issuance [4] - European counterparts' debt and deficits are influencing the market [3][4] US Treasury Market Trends - US 10-year Treasury yields are generally moving in the same direction as European yields, influenced by arbitrage [5] - There's a feeling that Treasury yields will remain high [5] - Equity market movements influence Treasury yields: yields decrease when equity markets decline and increase when equity markets recover [6]

Treasury yields rose across the curve after the US Senate advanced a plan to end the longest government shutdown in history https://t.co/LjzRxbXR9K ...

Group 1 - President Trump has been pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, including attempts to influence Fed chair Jerome Powell and other governors [1] - The Federal Reserve controls the federal funds rate, which influences short-term lending rates, but does not directly control mortgage rates, which are more closely tied to Treasury yields [2] - Reduced independence of the Fed could lead to increased Treasury yields as market trust diminishes, resulting in higher inflation expectations [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve can influence Treasury bond demand by purchasing them, which can lower yields and subsequently mortgage rates [4] - Increasing demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) through Fed actions can also lead to lower mortgage rates in the private market [5] - Slowing the runoff of existing MBS can decrease supply and spreads, resulting in lower mortgage rates for consumers [6] Group 3 - The idea of privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could increase mortgage rates due to perceived higher risks, but a more strategic approach could be taken to lower rates [7]

Rick Santelli's in Chicago. He is following the bond market and the news. Rick, >> well, I'll tell you what, you just nailed all the important variables.Let's start out with Challenger Gray and Christmas. Consider it's layoff announcements. First of all, will they actually happen.Maybe. But they are the announcements. And if you wanted to make today's number look as bad as possible, here's how you'd say it.The worst October in 22 years. If you wanted to reflect more accurate way to view today's number, well ...

Core Insights - Treasury yields have weakened, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1] - Oil prices have seen a slight increase, reflecting ongoing supply concerns and geopolitical tensions [1] Treasury Yields - The decline in Treasury yields suggests a growing demand for government bonds, which may be driven by economic uncertainty [1] - Lower yields typically indicate that investors are seeking safety, potentially impacting equity markets [1] Oil Prices - Oil prices have inched higher, with recent trading showing a rise of approximately 1% [1] - Factors contributing to the increase include supply chain disruptions and geopolitical issues affecting oil-producing regions [1]

Market Trends - Treasury yields increased this week as traders reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - Hawkish signals from Chair Jerome Powell contributed to the shift in expectations [1] - Signs of resilience in the US economy also played a role in the adjustment of rate cut expectations [1]

Take a look at Treasury yields right now. Look at the 10-year. Look at the 10-year. 4.1%, the 2-year, 3.6%.People are not totally rattled. Uh, joining us right now, uh, Kelsey Burrow, fixed income portfolio manager at JP Morgan Asset Management. Are you surprised, by the way, that the bond market has not been more rattled by just everything.>> I'm not too surprised. You know, I think that we I there's been a fair bit of data even though there's been a lack of official data with the government shut down. Um ...

Core Viewpoint - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's actions have led to an increase in Treasury yields, negatively impacting bond performance [1] Group 1: Impact on Treasury Yields - The increase in Treasury yields is attributed to comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell [1] - This rise in yields has caused a decline in bond prices, indicating a challenging environment for fixed-income investments [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Investors are reacting to the signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, which are influencing market dynamics [1] - The bond market is experiencing volatility as a result of these changes, reflecting broader economic concerns [1]

Bond Market Overview - The 10-year yield has briefly crossed above 4% again, influenced by rising oil prices [1][2] - The last close above 4% was on Friday, with a new low yield close for the year recorded at 3.95% [2] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show metrics over 3% year-over-year, which is expected to impact treasury selling pressure [3]