turn now to the bond market with the 10-year yield briefly crossing back above 4% again as the price of oil also moves up. Let's head now to Rick Santelli who's in Chicago with more on the bond market and I guess could probably tell us as an Illinois guy is Indiana considered the Midwest. Oh, of course it is.Absolutely. We're all part of flyover country. You know, we need to make sure the audience knows tomorrow 8:30 Eastern September CPI.And I think that along with as Sully pointed out oil prices moving hi ...

turn now to the bond market with the 10-year yield briefly crossing back above 4% again as the price of oil also moves up. Let's head now to Rick Santelli who's in Chicago with more on the bond market and I guess could probably tell us as an Illinois guy is Indiana considered the Midwest. Oh, of course it is.Absolutely. We're all part of flyover country. You know, we need to make sure the audience knows tomorrow 8:30 Eastern September CPI.And I think that along with as Sully pointed out oil prices moving hi ...

Bond traders are preparing for Treasury yields to drop further even as the 30-year reached its lowest level in six months on Tuesday https://t.co/ISzoysYQAH ...

Core Viewpoint - Inflation concerns continue to affect investor sentiment, despite minimal changes in Treasury yields following the release of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting minutes [1] Group 1 - Investors remain worried about inflation, indicating a cautious outlook in the market [1] - Treasury yields showed little variation, suggesting stability in the bond market amid inflation concerns [1]

Core Insights - A mixed picture in mortgage rates emerged following the U.S. government shutdown, with new jobs data raising economic concerns [1][2] - Ten-year Treasury yields fell to 4.08%, down 11 basis points from the previous week, influencing mortgage rates [1][2] - The average 30-year mortgage rate showed varied movements, with Freddie Mac reporting it at 6.34%, up 4 basis points from the previous week [4][5] Mortgage Rate Movements - The 15-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 6 basis points to an average of 5.55%, reflecting a 30 basis point rise from the previous year [5] - Zillow reported a 30-year fixed average of 6.51%, down 8 basis points from the previous week, but up 3 basis points from the day before [5] - Lender Price data indicated a flat 30-year fixed rate at 6.44% week-over-week [6] Economic Influences - The decline in Treasury yields was attributed to a report showing a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs, which likely influenced investor behavior more than the government shutdown [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut the funds rate did not meet investor expectations, leading to increased mortgage rates [8] - Market reactions to the government shutdown were anticipated, with traders likely having already adjusted their positions prior to the event [9] Market Outlook - Uncertainty from the government shutdown may lead to increased market volatility, but stability is expected in the short term [10] - Current mortgage rates present opportunities for potential home buyers, remaining below the average of the past year [10] - Increased pending home sales indicate growing buyer confidence, although affordability remains a challenge [11] - Caution is advised as new listings are at a historic low, driven by hesitant sellers amid sluggish demand [12]

Core Insights - Treasury yields are on track for a third consecutive quarterly decline as markets anticipate a potential U.S. government shutdown [1] - The dollar is expected to end the third quarter higher, despite recent weaknesses [1] - Declining oil prices, influenced by OPEC+ increasing production, are easing inflation concerns, which may be impacting yields and the dollar [1] Interest Rate Expectations - Investors are pricing in 93% odds of a second 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, an increase from 90% the previous day [2]

Core Insights - XRP experienced a significant price drop, collapsing from $2.90 to $2.75 due to heavy selling, resulting in a loss of over $18 billion in market value [1][3] - The market is currently facing resistance at $2.80, with traders anticipating a test of the $2.70 support level [1][5] Market Performance - XRP's price fell by 5.83% from $2.92 to $2.75 during the Sept. 25–26 session, driven by institutional selling [2] - A notable volume spike of 276.77 million occurred at the $2.80 rejection point, which is more than 2.5 times the 24-hour average [2][6] - Over the past week, XRP's market value decreased by 10.22%, breaking below the psychological threshold of $3.00 [3] Price Action Summary - XRP traded within a range of $2.92 to $2.74, closing near $2.75, indicating a 6.3% intraday range [4][6] - After the rejection at $2.80, sellers dominated, creating a distribution zone that limited further price increases [4] - Recovery attempts were unsuccessful around the $2.81–$2.82 levels, confirming new resistance clusters [4][6] Technical Analysis - Current short-term support is identified at the $2.75–$2.77 range, with a potential downside risk towards $2.70 if this support is breached [5][6] - The volume during the rejection was significantly high at 276.77 million compared to the daily average of 108.42 million, indicating strong selling pressure [6] - The high-volume rejection suggests a distribution pattern, with short-term consolidation around $2.77 indicating market indecision [6] Trader Sentiment - Traders are closely monitoring whether the $2.75 support holds or breaks towards $2.70 during the Asia session [7] - There is a contrast between ETF optimism and actual money outflows, with a "sell-the-news" pattern observed [7] - Whale activity has been noted with $800 million in transfers over the past week, indicating positioning risks if selling resumes [7] - Macro factors such as Powell's hawkish stance and rising Treasury yields are contributing to market uncertainty [7]

Market Trends & Technical Analysis - Shorting at or near all-time highs is generally not advisable due to the absence of resistance on the charts and positive momentum [2] - Deteriorating breadth in recent weeks may offer some shorting opportunities, but not on a broad basis [2] - The VIX is stabilizing and inching above its 50-day moving average; clearing its 200-day moving average at 1930% would be a risk indicator for the S&P 500 [3] - The 20-day moving average has been a valuable trend-following input since the April low [4] - Overbought conditions are not inherently negative, but downturns following overbought readings, indicated by stochastics or RSIs, should be monitored [8][9] Company Specific Analysis - Mega caps have diverged, with Microsoft and Nvidia underperforming, while Tesla and Alphabet have shown significant gains [6] - Losing support from other mega caps, especially Alphabet, could be detrimental to major indices [7] - Intel shows a confirmed breakout with potential upside, with initial resistance in line and secondary resistance targeting $38-$39 [9][10] - Intel provides technical diversity to a portfolio [11] Economic Indicators & Potential Risks - A seasonal pullback is anticipated between now and mid-October [7] - Treasury yields and the dollar index are near key support levels; a breakdown in 10-year yields below 400% could target 367%, with a further breakdown targeting 322% [12] - Initial pain may precede the positive impact of rate cut cycles [15] Cryptocurrency Analysis - Bitcoin has moved to a bearish short-term bias due to a short-term overbought downturn, within the context of an intermediate-term range following a long-term breakout [16] - Key support levels for Bitcoin are around $108 (former resistance) and the 200-day moving average around $103 [16][17]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has begun cutting the federal funds rate, leading to market excitement and expectations of more cuts by year-end [1] - Current average mortgage rates for a 30-year loan are at 6.26%, which has deterred many potential homeowners and investors [1] - Rate cuts are expected to lower mortgage rates, but the relationship between federal funds rate and mortgage rates is not direct, as lower borrowing rates may also increase housing prices [2][3] Group 2 - The federal funds rate influences lenders' offerings and housing demand indirectly, as mortgage rates are more closely tied to Treasury yields and the bond market [3] - The impact of the Fed's rate cuts on Treasury bonds will take time to materialize, potentially delaying the effects on mortgage rates until early 2026 [4]

Market Trends & Inflation - The bond market is heavily influenced by inflation, which is currently around 3% and edging higher, creating a stagflationary environment [3] - Inflation trends, rather than Federal Reserve actions, will primarily drive bond yields over the next 6 to 12 months [4] - There's hesitancy in longer-term bonds globally due to large fiscal deficits and concerns about inflation [6][7] Federal Reserve Policy & Impact - The market has already largely factored in the Federal Reserve cutting rates [2] - Cutting rates while the job market slows and inflation remains high presents a challenging situation for the bond market [3] - The Fed reducing its holdings of longer-term bonds raises concerns about whether private investors can compensate [7] - The possibility of the Fed matching its balance sheet maturities with Treasury issuance could impact long-term bond yields [10] - Quantitative tightening (QT) is important because the Fed's balance sheet management significantly influences borrowing costs [9] Mortgage Rates & Yield Curve - A Federal Reserve rate cut does not guarantee a decrease in mortgage rates; they could remain stable or even increase [4][5] - The yield curve may steepen even as the Fed cuts rates, as longer-term yields are influenced by inflation expectations, growth prospects, and supply and demand [5][6] - It's unlikely that mortgage rates will fall below 6% even after the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut [8]