Group 1 - The current trend shows a decline in deposit account rates, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1][2] - As of September 16, 2025, the highest CD rate available is 4.45% APY, offered by LendingClub for an 8-month CD, while short-term CDs (6 to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY [2] - Historical trends indicate that CD rates have fluctuated significantly due to economic events, with rates falling to around 1% APY for one-year CDs by 2009 after the financial crisis [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's policies have greatly influenced CD rates, with ultra-low rates prevailing from 2009 until a gradual increase began in 2015, followed by a drop during the COVID-19 pandemic [5][6] - Post-pandemic, the Fed raised rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, leading to higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - By September 2024, the Fed started cutting the federal funds rate, resulting in a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 3 - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offered higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average CD rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - When selecting a CD, factors such as goals, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation should be considered to ensure the best fit for individual needs [9]

Brian Gilmartin, is a portfolio manager at Trinity Asset Management, a firm he founded in May, 1995, catering to individual investors and institutions that werent getting the attention and service deserved, from larger firms. Brian started in the business as a fixed-income / credit analyst, with a Chicago broker-dealer, and then worked at Stein Roe & Farnham in Chicago, from 1992 - 1995, before striking out on his own and managing equity and balanced accounts for clients. Brian has a BSBA (Finance) from Xav ...

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market has priced in many positives, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to disappoint next week [2] - The key focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the committee's rate guidance for the end of 2026; a convergence with the rates market is needed to avoid disappointment [3][4] - A weakening labor market is a defining macro characteristic, suggesting growth-side risks for the equity market and the need for a bond position [10][11] Investment Strategies - Broadening investment portfolios beyond tech is recommended, considering areas like small caps, energy, and international markets [6][7][8] - Small caps are poised to benefit from declining interest rates due to their floating rate and short-term debt structures, along with less regulation and more M&A activity [7] - Offsetting equity positions with a bond position (duration) is suggested, especially given the potential for a pullback in the second half of September [9] Interest Rate & Bond Market - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut next week [2][3] - The yield curve is positively sloped now, suggesting that rates across the curve should come down as the Fed starts its rate-cutting cycle, unlike the previous year when the yield curve was inverted [16][17] - Expect the 10-year Treasury yield to break below 4%, surprising many due to recency bias related to the bond market's reaction to previous rate cuts [18] Economic Indicators - Despite concerns about the labor market, other data points like GDP growth, company earnings, and consumer strength suggest a continued strong economy [13]

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of a total of 75 basis points by the end of the year [3][6][14] - Treasury volatility is at a three-year low, with the 10-year yield approaching 4%, indicating a stable bond market [1][4] - Credit risk measures have fallen to their lowest levels since February, raising concerns about potential complacency among investors [1][25] Group 2 - Inflation remains a concern, with indications that it may be stickier than previously thought, which could impact the Fed's rate-cutting strategy [2][9][18] - The bond market is perceived to be underpricing inflation risks, suggesting that investors may not be adequately compensated for extending out the yield curve [18][20] - There is a notable disconnect in the high-yield market, with a significant portion of issuance being for refinancing or debt repayment, indicating limited new money entering the market [27][28] Group 3 - The demand for high-grade credit remains robust, with Wells Fargo leading a $4 billion deal, although overall issuance has slowed [22][23] - The credit market is currently pricing in low risk levels, similar to late 1990s, despite increased issuance, suggesting a potential overconfidence among investors [25][26] - The performance of credit portfolios shows a trend of quality upgrades outpacing downgrades, indicating a generally healthy credit environment [23][24]

Economic Outlook - The bond rally's sustainability is questioned, with considerations on economic and inflation outlooks [1][4] - The yield curve has started to flatten, indicating potential changes in short-term yields [2][3] Market Sentiment - There is significant demand for various asset classes, including US, European, and emerging market equities, as well as bonds and liquid alternatives [6][7] - Despite concerns about a potential US recession and a weakening labor market, there remains optimism in the market [4][7] Commodity Performance - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are showing strong performance and potential breakout [5] - Gold is being favored as a protective asset amid concerns about currency debasement, with central banks increasing their purchases [8][9] Investment Trends - Investors are actively looking to deploy cash across multiple asset classes, reflecting a positive sentiment towards economic strength [6][7] - The resilience of urban areas, such as London, suggests a robust economic environment despite mixed industrial production numbers [11][12]

Deposit account rates are on the decline. The good news: You can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to 4.5% AP ...

Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Market Trends & Performance - Several banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Synchry, Bank of New York, and Citizens, are hitting all-time highs [1] - The financial sector is experiencing internal sector rotation, with regional banks potentially undervalued compared to money center bank peers [7] - A steepening yield curve and increased mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity are acting as tailwinds for the financial sector [9][11] - The overall market valuation, while potentially stretched, provides a valuation umbrella for equity capital work [9] Valuation & Investment Considerations - The speaker's exposure to the financial sector via the Jot ETF has reached 35% since January 2024 [1][2] - Valuations for some money center banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs may be getting stretched relative to earnings [3][7] - Regional banks like Citizens Financial Group and Regions Financial have shown significant improvement in their balance sheets [3] - Bank of America is considered cheaper at 12 times earnings compared to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs at 15 times earnings [10] - Goldman Sachs is currently trading at a discount to its historical price-to-book ratio [8][9] Company Specifics - The firm owns JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs [1][10]

house. But let's turn now to the markets and your money because with all this stuff going on, guess what. Stocks, they're still higher.The bond market slowly starting to shift all as the Fed feud unfolds. Joe Davis is chief global economist at Vanguard. He is head of Vanguard's investment strategy group.Joe, don't worry. I'm not going to ask you to dive into the politics of this, but I will ask you, does a fight over any Fed governor like this without going into the details because we don't, to be frank, we ...

Market Impact of Potential Fed Turmoil - The market has become conditioned to noise from the administration regarding policy makers [2][3] - The market may initially take potential Fed turmoil in stride, viewing it as a continuation of a dovish Fed policy and anticipating future rate cuts [3][4] - Equity market is expected to react positively to potential aggressive rate cut strategy, craving more stimulus [6] - Bond market is expected to become more stressed, with risk premium potentially creeping higher [7][8] Potential Risks and Concerns - S&P Global warned that the US credit rating could come under pressure if political developments weigh on the strength of American institutions [9] - Turmoil alone is not expected to drive a downgrade, but a more pervasive approach could be a contributing factor [11] - Deficits, debt levels, and the steepening yield curve are greater concerns than the potential Fed turmoil [12] Investment Strategies - Technology sector is considered a safe trade due to the AI race [13] - Opportunities exist in the industrials and financials sectors [14] - Focus is shifting towards size and earning stability in the back half of the year due to increasing volatility [15]