Yield Curve
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'SIGNIFICANT LABOR PROBLEM': Expert reveals US concerns
Youtube· 2025-12-19 07:00
exactly what Rick Reer lives and breathes. He's Black Rockck's global allocation team head. He also has a side job as the global fixed income chief, too.He You're busy, man. I got to tell you, every day. >> What was your first reaction when you saw the CPI number.>> It's pretty good. I mean, you know, listen, have we solved inflation. No, we haven't solved inflation.We're closer to target. You know, it's also that number was a little funky today because we didn't get October. So, it was it was a little mess ...
PennyMac Mortgage: We Are Loading The Bonds And Considering The Preferred Stock
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-17 10:16
Core Insights - The focus is on closed-end funds and the opportunities for directional and arbitrage trading created by market price deviations [1][2] - The yield curve has begun to normalize, with long-term yields surpassing short-term yields, indicating potential investment strategies [2] Group 1: Trading Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of timing in trading closed-end funds and offers early access to discussions for members [1] - Denislav Iliev, an experienced trader, leads a team that identifies mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds using straightforward financial logic [2] Group 2: Service Features - The service provided includes frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [2] - An actively managed portfolio and a chat feature for discussions are also part of the service offerings [2]
Tariff Related Inflation Is Key Unknown, Rosenberg Says
Youtube· 2025-12-16 14:31
Do you think that this really changes the needle in any way. Well, Lisa, you stole my opening line. I was going to do a little hat tip to our friend and colleague, Jonathan Ferro.He always says the first reaction is not always the right reaction. And you said that at the top of the hour there at the top of the segment. You know, the headline was what the markets were reacting to, the little bit higher than expected unemployment rate.I think you guys in the earlier segment decomposed that pretty well the lab ...
Technicals point to higher note yields
CNBC Television· 2025-12-12 20:10
Let's get over to Rick Santelli with the bond report. And Rick, um, do you think that's what's going on here. It's, you know, less of a dovish look than we had after the Fed meeting.>> You know, I know that all roads lead to the Fed. The Fed is a hugely important group of people that move markets and make big decisions, but I also think there is life outside of the Fed. And I do think what's going on in large part has to do with just the dynamics of the economy and the dynamics of debt and issuance. Then ad ...
Tension Over Fed's Dual Mandate, AI Growth's Impact on Spreads, Credits | Real Yield 12/12/2025
Youtube· 2025-12-12 19:09
Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, committing to purchase $40 billion of Treasury bills per month, amidst rising credit risk and AI spending fatigue [1][2][3] - There is a consensus that further rate cuts will depend on labor market weakness or inflation improvement, with inflation remaining a significant concern [3][4][5] - The market's expectations for rate cuts differ from the Fed's dot plot, indicating a potential disconnect between market predictions and Fed policy [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic surprises suggest the possibility of weaker data than expected, impacting the Fed's decision-making process [4][6] - The labor market shows signs of potential improvement, but inflation remains a critical issue, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [8][9] - Predictions indicate one more rate cut next year, contingent on labor market data [9][10] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market is experiencing increased issuance, with expectations of record primary volumes in 2026, driven by elevated maturities and M&A activity [30][31] - High-quality credits are expected to dominate the market, with a significant increase in tech supply anticipated [32][33] - Despite potential pressure on spreads, the market is expected to absorb the increased supply without widespread disruption [34][35] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are leaning towards fixed income, with a focus on investment-grade securities and hybrids, while some analysts express caution regarding corporate credit [20][22] - The overall sentiment suggests that while fixed income has a role in portfolios, equities may present better growth opportunities [24][25] - The market is characterized by a constructive backdrop, with expectations of yield opportunities despite potential spread widening [35][39]
UBS’ Erika Najarian on her expectations for regionals in 2026
CNBC Television· 2025-12-12 16:12
Our next guest is pretty bullish on the regionals for 2026. Erica Ngerian, UBS senior equity research analyst focusing on the large cap banks joins us this morning. Erica, happy Friday.Good to see you. >> Good to see you. >> I was going to ask you whether or not the environment can get any better, but I think you probably think it can.>> Look, I mean, especially for the regional banks, right. They have really suffered from all of the market share loss and direct lending to the non-banks. And last Friday, th ...
Long-awaited Fed decision now in
Youtube· 2025-12-11 08:20
The CNBC app, global market news in one place. Customizable sections and personalized alerts, stocks tracking, interactive charts and market insights, all in your hands. Stay connected, stay informed, download the CNBC app today. >> Oh, I'm very excited to be back in the studio. More excited the fact that I've got Juliana Talib leading the show. How are you. >> I'm doing well. Good to have you back. >> It's great to be back, I have to say. Right. Welcome to the scorebox Europe with Juliana Tattlebound. Uh a ...
DoubleLine's Gundlach: I've turned positive on commodities broadly
CNBC Television· 2025-12-10 21:31
So Jeffrey, you you so rightly told me last time that you were looking for a steeper yield curve. Um, and it's exactly what what we've gotten as you alluded to that. Why do you think rates have backed up on the long end the way that they have >> people are worried about the interest expense on the Treasury debt and they're worried about the fact that the budget deficit is 6.2% 2% of GDP while we're in an extended economic expansion.So they're worried that the interest expense is going to be out of control b ...
Fed Chair Powell: A lot of high costs are embedded due to higher inflation in 2022 and 2023
Youtube· 2025-12-10 20:38
uh tenyear rates have are 50 [clears throat] basis points higher than when you started cutting back in September of 2024 and the yield curve basically has been steepening. Uh why do you think that continuing to cut now especially in the absence of data is going to bring down the yield on the thing that will move the economy the most. >> So we're looking at the real economy and focusing on that.And you have you've got when the when the long bonds move around, you've got to look at why they're moving around. ...
Best CD rates today, December 10, 2025: Lock in up to 4.1% APY
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-10 11:00
Deposit account rates are on the decline. The good news: You can lock in a competitive return on a certificate of deposit (CD) today and preserve your earning power. In fact, the best CDs still pay rates above 4%. Read on for a snapshot of CD rates today and where to find the best offers. Where are the best CD rates today? CDs today typically offer rates significantly higher than traditional savings accounts. Currently, the best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) generally offer rates around 4% to 4.5% AP ...