And you're not worried about a recession in 2026 for the US. You made that clear. >> I think it could happen in 2026.I just I'm not worried about it as a different statement. We'll deal with it. We'll serve our clients. We'll navigate through it.A lot of us have been through them before. You don't wish it because you know certain people get hurt. But uh but it could happen in 202.>> We're still of course in the US government shutdown. >> But but I do think there are positives like deregulation is a real pos ...

Private Credit Market Concerns - First Brands 破产引发对私募信贷市场风险的担忧，可能预示着问题的开始 [1][2] - 市场对私募信贷的乐观情绪和不透明性表示担忧，类似于影子银行系统，可能导致潜在问题 [6][8] - Jamie Dimon 称私募信贷市场的爆炸式增长是“金融危机的配方”，因为该市场尚未在经济疲软时期经历考验，目前市场规模达 2 万亿美元 [5] Lending Practices and Risks - 宽松的借贷环境导致过度借贷和激进的假设，增加了公司在经济放缓时面临的风险 [3] - 行业内对贷款水平的透明度不足，难以评估潜在风险，加剧了市场的不确定性 [10][12] - 如果贷款是基于 EBITDA 的 6-7 倍，则可能存在问题，但如果贷款是基于 EBITDA 的 4 倍，则问题不大 [9] Potential Mitigation and Outlook - 美联储可能通过降低利率来缓解问题，从而降低资本成本，避免经济衰退 [4][7] - Avenue Capital Group 在人们别无选择时提供贷款，可以控制条款，并以 EBITDA 的 3-4 倍的杠杆率放贷，风险覆盖充分 [11] - 市场普遍认为，如果经济放缓，企业削减开支的能力将面临挑战，可能需要更多资本 [6][7]

Michael Aron is chief investment strategist at State Street Investment Management. Mike, always appreciate having you on. You know, stocks may be due for whatever, but it doesn't mean they're going to do that, does it.It doesn't, Brian. The foundation for this bull market remains solid. So, trades coming into clearer focus.It's not perfect, but we've avoided the worst outcome. Now, we're throwing a little gasoline on the fire with both fiscal policy and monetary policy. Oh, and by the way, earnings are grow ...

Whatever probability you put on recession a few weeks ago, it should be lower now that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, WSJ’s Greg Ip writes https://t.co/TPIx0xsqQN ...

$BTC traders should keep an eye out for Japan. Analysis by @robin_j_brooks suggests that a potential U.S. recession could offer relief to debt-laden Japan. By @godbole17.https://t.co/xRDZF1JvcO ...

Market Outlook & IPOs - The IPO market is performing well and considered healthy, avoiding the dynamics seen in 2021 [1][2] - A good IPO market anticipates Federal Reserve easing [2] - The market anticipates the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The market might be disappointed by the lack of clear signals from the Fed regarding future rate cuts [4] - The speaker anticipates one more rate cut before year-end, but not as much as 75 basis points, due to factors like tariffs [5] - The Fed is expected to be data-driven and cautious in its approach [8] - The Fed chair is unlikely to signal a major easing cycle to continue fighting inflation [7] Economic Indicators - A 900,000 job readjustment signaled the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates [4] - Core goods deflation has reversed into modest inflation [6] - The current curve doesn't resemble that of last fall, which is reassuring [9] - Flattening of the yield curve (2s and 10s) is seen as beneficial [9] - The focus should shift to economic growth and avoiding a recession [11]

Jordi Visser (@jvisserlabs) says we will NOT have a recession. https://t.co/qgTnBh0GW2 ...

I think the economy is weakening, you know, whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know, and that just confirms what we already thought, kind of. And I know that's a big revision. And speaking of kind of what we were going back to with the state of the economy, the difficulty predicting one of the questions people have is what's going on with the consumer right now.They're still spending money. It's a little bit different depending on what income set they're coming from. They sti ...

Joining me now is Kevin Hasset, director of the National Economic Council. Thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. We really appreciate it. >> Well, it's great to have you. I do want to start off uh with your reaction to the August jobs report. As you know, just 22,000 jobs were created last month and revisions showed the US actually lost jobs in June. That's the first month of job losses since the pandemic. Is this a warning sign about the state of the labor market? Well, right now when we're look ...

I want to bring in Ron Insana, CNBC contributor and publisher of the message of the market on Substack. Peter Baker is New York Times chief White House correspondent and an MSNBC political analyst. Mark McKinnon is a former adviser to President George W.Bush and Senator John McCain as well as creator of the television series The Circus. So Ron, the president says we are the hottest economy in the world. What does this report tell us.Well, I would fly in the face of that analysis and and and I think you know ...