RT Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas)Does it feel like #recession to you personally? ...

RT Wendy O (@CryptoWendyO)We are not in a recession ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential rate cut in September [1] - Survey data indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut, despite 100% believing there will be no cut in July [1] - The chance of recession has fallen to 31%, down from 38% in June and 53% in May [2] - Current rate outlook anticipates approximately two rate cuts this year and two more next year [2] - The market is pricing in 100 basis points of cuts, but the 10-year forecast only goes down to 425 basis points, suggesting a steepening of the curve [10][11] - Easing to come will be a recalibration of bringing down the policy rate and in the process resloping the yield curve, potentially another 100 basis points down to 338 basis points [13] Potential Fed Chair Candidates - The race to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell is a three-way tie between Kevin Walsh (24%), Scott Besson (24%), and Hasset (22%) [1][3] - Fed Governor Waller is also a candidate, polling at 14% [3] - Scott Besson suggests a new Fed chair could be picked as early as December [3] - Paul McCaulay advocates for Governor Chris Waller, citing his monetary policy scholarship, experience as a Fed governor, and sound economic principles [5][6][7] Potential Dissent - There is an expectation that Governor Waller and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman could dissent with the decision not to cut rates [8] - A double dissent from Fed governors hasn't been seen since 1993 [9]

While uncertainty around Donald Trump's trade policy is curbing Canadian businesses investment and consumer spending, firms see the country's economy avoiding the worst recessionary outcomes, central bank surveys show https://t.co/7EvKOsJoyw ...

JP pal uh to his credit in my view has not commented on anything that President Trump has said about him. If I was getting beat up every day or occasionally from time to time by the president, any president, I probably wouldn't be as quiet as Jay has been. But Jay has basically not responded, not taking the bait and I think uh he'd like us to finish out the term if he could, which finishes in May of 26.Jay Pal worked at Carlile and in effect for me for eight years. I hired him out of the George Herbert Walk ...

Trump's trade war may end up just prolonging a period of industrial sluggishness, rather than triggering a sharp recession. But slow-burn downturns also tend to lead to slow-burn recoveries. https://t.co/cdz5pFxAmp ...

Economic Outlook - The US is potentially undergoing a systemic shift, drawing comparisons to both the "Reagan moment" (positive change) and the "Jimmy Carter moment" (stagflation/recession) [1] - Market sentiment regarding the US economic trajectory has been volatile, fluctuating between an 80% probability of a "Reagan moment" at the beginning of the year, dropping below 50% by April, and currently residing around 70% [2] - There is an approximate 50/50 chance of either a positive transformation or stagflation/recession in the US [2] Market Dynamics - The US market's significant fluctuations are unusual given its mature institutions and diversified economy [2]

Market Risk - Economic data indicates that the upcoming tariff deadline requires careful consideration from the Trump administration [1] - A negative shock from the tariff decision could trigger actions by firms that lead to a US recession and a sustained bear market [1]

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve Chair (JPOW) is credited with reducing inflation from over 9% to 2% [1] - The Federal Reserve Chair (JPOW) is recognized for achieving this inflation reduction without triggering a recession [1] Leadership & Historical Context - The Federal Reserve Chair (JPOW) is positioned as a potentially legendary figure in the history of the Federal Reserve System [1]

And Ryan, I was struck. Goldman just tweaked their forecast for uh you know, their Fed forecast for for rate cuts. Now they think we could get one in September because the inflation numbers on from tariff have been less uh dramatic than they expected.So all of a sudden, you throw in there the possibility of a near-term rate cut. I have to imagine that would contribute to a positive outlook on equities. Kelly, you're right.Thanks for having me back and happy Monday, everybody, and congrats on number six. Uh, ...