Steve Leeman. Now, no change in the Federal Reserve funds rate, staying at a net level of four and a quarter to four and a half percent. Some really interesting stuff in the forecast.Let me tell you about the assessment of the economy. First, they're saying the economy continues to expand at a solid pace. Unemployment remains low.Inflation is somewhat elevated. And they talk about the idea that swings in net exports, all that front running is affecting the data. Now, the Fed forecast increase the inflation ...

Uh BTI's Jonathan Kinsky says the potential for a pullback is elevated. Tom Lee says stocks are going to rally post FOMC. What do you think.So I think as we move towards the end of the second quarter and midyear, you have this looming battle between resiliency and complacency. Do we have a resilient market or is there too much complacency in the market. Both.Well, I'm in the We do have a resilient market. You could still have complacency. Well, but think about from a perspective of positioning.If you're in ...

It could be a pressure cooker of a summer for the US economy, and not because of the warmer weather. Tariffs from the Trump administration don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon, forcing businesses to raise prices on consumers and delay key projects. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates amid stagflation fears. Economic data has also begun to weaken, with the latest evidence being the employment readings from the last three months. Yahoo Finance executive editor ...

September. Kelly. >> All right.So still looking maybe for them to lower rates in a few more months. Steve stay right there as we bring in Paul McCulley Pimco's former chief economist Paul always like to speak with you on the eve of these decisions. And so far, the preponderance of evidence has kind of been to the deflationary side of the tariff case.I mean, even what you see, apparel prices slightly lower. There's not a lot in any of the reports up until now, that point towards a lot of price hikes througho ...

Let's turn now to today's market action. Stocks closing near session lows. Only two Dow stocks and one sector energy again closing higher with the broadbased selling.Joining me now is Bob Elliot, CEO and CIO at Unlimited Funds and Krishna Guha, Everore ISI vice chairman. Guys, welcome. Bob, oil moved dramatically today off a pretty low base.Stocks moved modestly. I guess this is more about what are we set up for given the run that stocks have been on. We're pretty near all-time highs on the S&P.Yeah, I thin ...

one year inflation drops from 66 down to 51. That's a pretty big drop. Joining us this morning, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian is with us Mohamed.It's a treat for us to be able to get your take on on the news of the day. I did read this morning that you feel that this this news out of the Middle East is net net maybe Stagflationary does that explain some of the action in treasuries. >> It is Stagflationary. The question is how stagflationary is it.And that's a function of what you just talk ...

Well, Torson, let's focus on the US side of things and then we can get to a more global dimension. Let's focus on the US with the tariffs in mind. Is it too early to expect those tariffs to show up in the data this morning.No, it's not. What really is the key issue here is that there is indeed going to be some upside pressure on inflation. And what's most critical about this is that it's all about the behavior among companies.How do they respond to tariffs. Do they pass on 100%. Will they pass on 50%. Or wi ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has cut its profit forecast for the year due to higher costs from US tariffs and weak demand for its new products, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company now expects annual profit between $14.58 and $14.78 per share, down from previous expectations of $14.95 to $15.15 [6]. - Lululemon's revenue forecast for the second quarter is between $2.54 billion and $2.56 billion, which aligns with market expectations [8]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The company is facing lower store traffic in the Americas, attributed to economic uncertainty, inflation, lower consumer confidence, and changes in discretionary spending [1][3]. - Competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori are gaining traction, making it difficult for Lululemon to boost sales despite new product offerings [3][8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Lululemon plans to implement modest price increases on a small portion of its product assortment and will negotiate with vendors to cut costs [4]. - In 2024, 40% of Lululemon's products were manufactured in Vietnam, and 28% of its fabrics were sourced from mainland China, indicating a diversification strategy in sourcing [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) position on cash, equities, credit, and bonds, while being "Underweight" (UW) on commodities for the next three months [3][21]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equities have shown resilience despite tariff uncertainties, with a projected earnings growth of 10% to 11% for CY 2025/26, which is 2-3 percentage points higher than previous forecasts [2][6]. - The S&P 500 had its best May performance since 1990, outperforming EM equities year-to-date, although EM equities have generally outperformed US equities in the same period [2][7]. - A weaker US Dollar is expected to support EM outperformance, as EM equities have historically benefited from a weaker Dollar [2][14]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and decisions from G4 central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB and stable unemployment rates in the US [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500's performance in May 2025 was notably strong, while EM equities have shown positive macro surprises, contrasting with muted US macro surprises [2][9]. Asset Allocation - The report suggests a diversified approach, advocating for international diversification in equities and bonds, and highlights the potential benefits of EM equity and local rates [3][6][21]. Correlation Analysis - The correlation between MSCI EM and the US Dollar has turned more positive, indicating a decoupling of EM rates from US rates, which may provide investment opportunities [16][18].

TransUnion (TRU) FY 2025 Conference May 28, 2025 09:00 AM ET Speaker0 Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for coming to our forty first Strategic Decisions Conference. With me on stage today, we have Chris Cartwright, who is the CEO of TransUnion. Welcome back, Chris. Thanks for joining us again. Speaker1 Always a pleasure. Thank you. Good to see lots of familiar faces this morning. Speaker0 I thought given the current environment, it's probably only appropriate to start with macro conversations. So, Chri ...