Time now for a very special interview with New York Fed President John Williams. For that, we want to head over to Steve Leeman. Mr.. Leeman, Andrew, thanks very much. I am here at the New York Federal Reserve Bank with New York Fed President John Williams and I want to make a note to viewers that obviously there's a lot of things happening with the Federal Reserve. These things are scheduled pretty well in advance.So, John, thanks for joining us. Um, >> Steve, welcome back to the >> Yes, it's always great ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, influenced by Chairman Powell's recent statements [1] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly concerned about rising unemployment rates, potentially triggered by changes in immigration policies and other factors [2] - The Fed's emphasis on employment over inflation, despite inflation being at 3% (above the 2% target), raises questions about its policy bias [6] - There's debate on whether current policies are "modestly restrictive," with arguments suggesting real rates are closer to neutral at 150 basis points (15%) [7] Economic Trends & Labor Market - The economy is experiencing a slowdown in both supply and demand, creating a "curious" situation [3] - Global demographic shifts, including declining fertility rates, are impacting the labor market [4] - Monthly job growth of 40,000 to 50,000 may not be a negative outcome, considering the evolving dynamics of the labor market [4] - Recent labor reports and revisions were not favorable, contributing to the Fed's openness to a September rate cut [5] Fed Independence & Political Pressure - There are concerns about the Fed's independence due to significant and direct political pressure, reminiscent of the Johnson and Nixon eras [12][13] - The Fed is under pressure from the administration, potentially affecting the reappointment of board members [12] - Chairman Powell is navigating differing views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and attempting to build consensus [9][10] - The Fed's decisions are heavily data-dependent, closely monitoring upcoming inflation and employment reports before their September meeting [11]

Let's dig deeper into how the markets are processing all these headlines from Chair Powell's speech. Joining us with his takeaways is Rosenberg Research founder and president David Rosenberg. Were Were you surprised to hear Powell much more open today to the policy pivot and the September cut.Well, if you would have asked me uh a few days ago, uh I would have been surprised. But then I gave a a good second look at the FOMC minutes uh that had come out from the last meeting. And what was really important uh ...

Monetary Policy Stance - Monetary policy is not on a preset course, decisions are based on data assessment and its implications for the economic outlook and balance of risks [3] - The policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than a year ago [2] - With policy in restrictive territory, the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the policy stance [3] Economic Outlook & Risks - Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside [1] - The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows for careful consideration of policy changes [2]

All right, let's officially now bring in David Zervos, chief market strategist at Jeffre, as well as a CNBC contributor, also on the not so short list of 11 candidates who may replace J. Pal. Welcome.That was that was a long introduction, Melissa. It was I mean, there's so many mantles which you carry these days. And a frequent guest here, which is how we know him.We don't really care about the stuff. What did you make of the number today. I don't make a lot of it. I I Steve said it's a very volatile number ...

Jerome Powell sees a historically low unemployment rate and above-target inflation; while the dissenters note that households are spending less and private job creation is soft. Yet markets seem to be following the Fed chair’s lead https://t.co/tHTqABzKzO ...

Consumer Spending - Consumer spending had been very strong but may finally be slowing down [2] - Credit card companies indicate consumer spending is at a healthy level, though not growing rapidly [2] - GDP data aligns with expectations of a consumer spending slowdown, but interpretation is difficult due to swings in net exports [4] - The industry is closely watching consumer spending, along with the labor market and inflation [5] Labor Market - Private sector job creation has decreased, potentially close to zero based on QCEW adjustment [7] - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a balance between slowing demand and supply of workers [7] - Immigration policy has slowed the flow into the labor force [8] - Wages are gradually cooling, and vacancies to unemployment ratios have been stable [9] - The labor market is solid but faces downside risks due to declining demand and supply [9] Delinquencies - Bank earnings calls indicate good credit performance [3] - High-end delinquencies are noted, but their significance is unclear [3]

“If you just kind of take a 30,000-foot look at the economy, you see an an economy with an unemployment rate in the range of 4%,” says @MichaelRStrain. What it may look like later in the year, on “Checks and Balance” https://t.co/rabhZJxjoS ...

Fed Rate Policy & Inflation - The Fed is likely to lower rates, considering the downward trend of inflation approaching the 2% target [1] - High real rates are restraining the economy, suggesting a need for rate cuts [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered minimal and temporary, unlikely to significantly alter the Fed's course [3][4] - A potential one-time price jump from tariffs is expected, with the US being a relatively closed economy where services constitute 70% of the consumer basket [4] - Even a 20% tariff increase is projected to raise prices by less than 1 percentage point [4] - Dollar decline since February is adding to inflation pressure, potentially more so than tariffs [10] Labor Market & Economic Impact - The Fed is cautious about weakness in the labor market translating to unemployment [6] - Maintaining the unemployment rate in the 4-45% range is a key objective for both the President and the Fed [7] - Weakness in the labor market will drive the Fed's rate decision more than inflation [8] - Long-term interest rates significantly affect the economy, influencing housing and investment decisions [8] - The US government's deficit and spending policies are crowding out the economy, potentially hurting it more than other factors [9]

Labor Market - The unemployment rate decreased to 41% last month [1] - The unemployment rate is milder than economist forecasts of 43% [1]