Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President John Williams indicates potential for interest rate cuts in the near term due to a softening labor market, which has led to increased investor expectations for a rate cut in December [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Following Williams' comments, investors raised the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's December 9-10 policy meeting to approximately 60-70%, up from around 35% previously [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a notable rebound on November 21, 2025, with major indexes posting significant gains, driven by optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 1.6% (700 points), the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP:IND) increased by 1.5%, although all three indexes were still expected to end the week in negative territory [2] Federal Reserve Influence - Remarks from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated support for an additional rate cut "in the near term," boosting investor confidence and increasing the probability of a December rate cut to 73.1% from 39.1% [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed mixed performance, with Nvidia (NVDA) reporting a 62% increase in sales and a 67% surge in EPS, yet its shares fluctuated, reflecting ongoing concerns about AI valuations [4] - The retail sector performed strongly, with Ross Stores (ROST) shares rising 7% to an all-time high, and Gap (GAP) shares increasing by 8% due to better-than-expected results [5] - Intuit (INTU) shares surged 6% following strong quarterly results, while Walmart (WMT) shares declined by approximately 2% despite a previous jump on strong earnings [5] Commodity and Currency Markets - WTI crude futures fell nearly 2% to $57.95 per barrel, while gold futures rose 0.6% to $4,085 per ounce [6] - The U.S. dollar index increased to 100.25, and Bitcoin (BTC) continued its downward trend, hitting a nine-month low [6] Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's final interest-rate decision of 2025 is scheduled for December 9-10, with policymakers divided on inflation and labor market concerns [7] - Key economic reports, including delayed inflation and jobs data, are set for release in the coming weeks, which will provide insights into consumer behavior and inflation trends [8][10] Corporate Earnings - The third-quarter 2025 earnings season is concluding, with 82.6% of S&P 500 companies exceeding analyst expectations [11] - Genesco Inc. (GCO) is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on December 4, 2025 [11] International Developments - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announced a joint venture with TPG to invest ₹18,000 crore in AI infrastructure in India, indicating significant investments in the sector [12] - In Canada, Dye & Durham Ltd. shares rose over 20% following a takeover proposal from Plantro Ltd. [12]

Stocks have shown a lack of direction over the course of the trading day on Friday, with the major averages bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line following the substantial downturn seen in the previous session.Currently, the major averages are turning in a mixed performance. While the Dow is up 99.49 points or 0.2 percent at 45,851.75, the S&P 500 is down 12.67 points or 0.2 percent at 6,526.09 and the Nasdaq is down 139.21 points or 0.6 percent at 21,938.84.The choppy trading on Wall Street co ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has shifted to a more dovish stance on monetary policy, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut in December, with a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction as per the CME FedWatch tool, up from 25% the previous day [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Stephen Miran have downplayed inflation concerns and highlighted a weakening labor market, suggesting that recent inflationary fears may be overstated [2]. - Williams noted that the risks to employment have increased due to a cooling labor market, while the risks of inflation have lessened, indicating potential for further adjustments to the federal funds rate [3]. - Miran expressed strong support for a 25-basis-point cut in December, citing recent job data as evidence for the need for a reduction and suggesting that much of the inflation data is outdated [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dovish comments from Fed officials, Wall Street experienced a slight recovery, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% after a previous decline of 1.6% [6]. - The Nasdaq 100 showed signs of stabilization after a 2.2% drop, while bond and currency markets reacted modestly, with the U.S. dollar slightly lower and Treasury yields declining [7].

Core Viewpoint - The probability of an interest rate cut next month has increased significantly following comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who indicated potential for a reduction in the near term, which has influenced investor sentiment and stock performance [1][2]. Interest Rate Outlook - Markets are now pricing in a 75.1% chance for a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates, bringing the range to 3.5% to 3.75%, a notable increase from below 40% just a day prior [2]. - The Federal Reserve had previously lowered interest rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75% to 4% in October, but further reductions are not guaranteed, as differing opinions among officials persist [3]. Economic Conditions - Williams noted an increase in risks associated with a cooling labor market, while the risks of inflation have somewhat diminished, emphasizing the importance of achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target [2]. - He described the current monetary policy as modestly restrictive, suggesting there is still room for further adjustments to align with a neutral policy stance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins believes that the current monetary policy is appropriate given the resilience of the economy, indicating skepticism about the necessity of further interest rate cuts in the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy Stance** - Collins suggests that the monetary policy is well-positioned in light of economic resilience [1] - There is skepticism regarding the need for interest rate cuts at the next monetary policy meeting [1]

Odds Of Interest Rate Cut Double After Fed Official Signals Supporthttps://t.co/hsFyfxI503 https://t.co/Okd1DXV3Jj ...

Economic Indicators - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 119K in September, surpassing expectations of 53K, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a nearly 4-year high, compared to expectations of no change at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly earnings in the U.S. rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 0.3% and 3.7% respectively [1] - U.S. rate futures indicate a 59.0% probability of no rate change and a 41.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting [5] Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with Nvidia (NVDA) down over 3% and Tesla (TSLA) down more than 2% [2] - Micron Technology (MU) fell over 10%, leading losses in the Nasdaq 100, while Jacobs Solutions (J) dropped over 10% after disappointing earnings [2] - Walmart (WMT) rose more than 6% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising its full-year guidance [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - New York Fed President John Williams indicated potential for interest rate cuts as the labor market weakens, suggesting a modestly restrictive monetary policy [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that rate cuts could prolong above-target inflation and increase financial stability risks [4] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution about approving another rate cut next month, emphasizing the need for careful monetary policy [4] International Market Trends - Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 1.70%, reflecting declines in Asian and U.S. markets, with technology stocks particularly affected [8] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index also closed lower, driven by weakness in the technology sector amid fears of an AI bubble [12] - China's Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant drop, marking its largest weekly decline since late December [11] Corporate Developments - Ubisoft (UBI.FP) surged over 10% after reporting strong FQ2 net bookings and announcing plans to reduce debt [8] - Intuit (INTU) rose over 3% in pre-market trading following stronger-than-expected FQ1 results [15] - The Gap (GAP) climbed more than 4% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and raising its sales growth forecast [15]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.04% after reaching a 5.5-month high, influenced by mixed economic data [1] - US September nonfarm payrolls increased by +119,000, surpassing expectations of +51,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1% to 4.4%, the highest in nearly four years, suggesting some weakness in the labor market [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -8,000 to 220,000, better than the expected 227,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest in four years [2] - October existing home sales rose by +1.2% month-over-month to 4.10 million, exceeding expectations of 4.08 million [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 39% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack expressed concerns that lowering interest rates could prolong elevated inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets, which supports a hawkish stance [4] Eurozone Context - The EUR/USD pair fell by -0.04%, reaching a two-week low, influenced by a weaker-than-expected Eurozone consumer confidence index [5] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts through the end of 2026 [5]

Let me first ask you about the headline number. It was a blowout. We were only expecting 51,000 in our survey and far more than double.That is what we got. How strong is this economy. 119,000 new jobs.I think that is a solid report for the American people and for the workforce. We have seen over and over again, you know, that we want to have these gains. And it's those investments by this administration and this president.I think that's what you're seeing come online. So this was a solid report for these Se ...