押注美联储下月降息的债券投资者正面临一个潜在障碍：通胀。 周二将发布的7月消费者价格指数（CPI）将为交易员提供线索，揭示特朗普的关税政策如何影响成 本。彭博社调查的经济学家预计，核心通胀年率将升至3%，为2月以来最高水平。 "市场正寻求进一步确认：贸易政策调整是否已传导至商品通胀上升，"道明证券（TD Securities）美国 利率策略主管根纳季·戈德堡（Gennadiy Goldberg）表示，"其他条件不变的情况下，更高的通胀数据可 能会让美联储希望在降息前看到更多数据。" 降息压力渐增 上月美联储维持利率不变后，鲍威尔重申，官员们需要更多时间评估关税影响后再降息，这表明在特朗 普持续施压要求降息的背景下，他仍保持耐心。 摩根大通策略师周一表示，若CPI数据符合市场预期，9月美国通胀保值国债（TIPS）多头头寸的"票息 收益（carry）"可能转为负值，并补充称在数据公布前，他们对盈亏平衡通胀率持中性态度。 然而，物价快速上涨的风险是美联储主席鲍威尔以及华尔街部分人士的心头大患。美国银行、阿波罗全 球管理公司和纽约梅隆银行近期报告均将滞胀列为重大担忧。 高通胀与经济增长疲软并存，也对美元构成风险——美 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell" signal triggered by a cash level of 3.9%, which is below the threshold of 4.0% [19][90]. Core Insights - The August Global Fund Manager Survey shows the highest bullish sentiment since February 2025, with 68% of investors predicting a soft landing for the global economy [3][7]. - There is a notable rotation in asset allocation, with a shift from European equities to emerging markets, which now holds a net 37% overweight position, the highest since February 2023 [5][26]. - The sentiment regarding AI's impact on productivity is strong, with 55% of investors believing that AI is already boosting productivity [75][79]. Summary by Sections Macro & Policy - 68% of investors predict a soft landing, while only 5% are positioned for a hard landing [3][7]. - Rate cut optimism is at its highest since December 2024, with 54% of respondents expecting the next Fed Chair to resort to quantitative easing or yield curve control [3][46]. Risks - The primary tail risk identified is a trade war triggering a global recession, cited by 29% of investors [54][61]. - The perception of inflation risks has increased, with 27% of investors concerned about inflation preventing Fed rate cuts [61]. Asset Allocation - Global equity allocation is at a net 14% overweight, the highest since February 2025, with a significant rotation towards utilities and energy sectors [5][20]. - A record 91% of investors view US stocks as overvalued, while emerging markets are seen as undervalued by a net 49% [67]. Crypto & Gold - Only 9% of investors have exposure to crypto, with an average allocation of 3.2%, while 48% have exposure to gold, averaging 4.1% [6][71]. - The total portfolio exposure to crypto is just 0.3%, and to gold is 2.2% after adjusting for those without allocations [6][71]. Investor Sentiment - The overall sentiment regarding the global economy has slightly deteriorated, with a net 41% of investors expecting a weaker economy in the next 12 months [36][97]. - Expectations for higher inflation have risen, with a net 18% of investors anticipating an increase in global CPI [42][100]. AI Perception - 52% of investors do not believe that AI stocks are in a bubble, while 41% think they are [79]. - The belief that AI is already increasing productivity has grown from 42% to 55% since July [75].

Key Takeaways from the FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and rates market sentiment, particularly regarding the US dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and emerging markets (EM) currencies. It reflects the views of 42 fund managers with a total of USD 573 billion in assets under management (AUM) [7][9]. Core Insights 1. **Short USD Thesis**: The short USD remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of the year, despite being challenged by rising global growth concerns [1][3][20]. 2. **Global Growth Concerns**: There is a significant concern regarding a potential global growth slowdown, which could impact the short USD thesis [3][25]. 3. **US Exceptionalism**: The fading of US exceptionalism is a recurring theme, with expectations that both US equities and the USD may decline [1][32][33]. 4. **Investor Sentiment**: A strong majority of respondents expect the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair to be more dovish, impacting market expectations [44][46]. 5. **FX Hedge Ratios**: Many investors prefer to increase their FX hedge ratios, indicating a cautious approach towards US assets [49][50]. Additional Insights 1. **Emerging Markets (EM) Sentiment**: EM FX and duration sentiment appears to have peaked, with a slight decline in positioning and views noted in August [15][94]. 2. **European Investment Push**: There is muted conviction regarding a broad-based European investment push, with concerns about EU defense spending and fiscal policies [22][61]. 3. **Tariff Expectations**: Most respondents expect tariffs against China to remain between 30-40% by the end of 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [17][34]. 4. **Oil Price Expectations**: Expectations for oil prices are that they will remain range-bound between $60-69 per barrel, with some upside risks anticipated [36][37]. 5. **UK and Eurozone Sentiment**: GBP sentiment has turned neutral with bearish levels, while EUR sentiment remains bullish despite lighter positioning [110][103]. Potential Risks and Opportunities 1. **Fed Independence Risks**: Nearly half of the respondents expect risks to Fed independence to manifest as a steeper US Treasury (UST) curve and a weaker USD [46][39]. 2. **Global Risk Appetite**: The appetite for risk-taking in portfolios remains lower than normal, with average cash levels reported at 3.3% [77][78]. 3. **Duration Exposure**: Global duration exposure has fallen relative to the previous month, indicating a cautious stance among investors [78][80]. Conclusion The survey indicates a complex landscape for FX and rates, with significant concerns about global growth, US fiscal policy, and the evolving dynamics of the Fed. Investors are adjusting their strategies accordingly, with a notable shift towards hedging and cautious positioning in the face of potential risks.

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - Major indices are tracking to close the week higher, with the S&P and NASDAQ pacing for their third positive week in four, and the Dow on course for its second positive week in three [1] - The market has largely processed economic data, driven by the resilience of the economy and consumer spending [2] - There's a growing possibility of stagflation, with potential inflation increases alongside economic deceleration and signs of a softening labor market [3] - Inflation measures show signs of fatigue, with goods prices potentially driving inflation higher, increasing the likelihood of a stagflation scenario [4] - The market focuses on data trends, such as the direction of the labor market and unemployment rate, rather than specific data points [6] Investment Strategies & Sector Performance - Companies with strong profit margins and solid free cash flow yields are performing well, supported by capital expenditure and profit margin expansion [7] - Sectors not investing in AI or reducing labor face margin squeeze due to potential supply chain price increases, leading to negative outlooks [8][9] - International markets, particularly Europe, are showing strength due to stronger economies and a weaker dollar, presenting diversification opportunities [11][12] - MSCI World Index XUS is up about 18% this year, compared to about 8% for the S&P 500, signaling a rebalancing of capital flows [10] Data Quality & Market Reaction - Uncertainty in data is inherent, with revisions being common due to the dynamic nature of information gathering [5] - The market is adept at understanding data ranges and focusing on trends rather than specific data points [6] CPI & Fed Policy - CPI is expected to pick up, potentially causing a market reaction, and influencing the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [14][15]

Wall Street strategists are sounding alarms that the US economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade tariffs start to show up: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/krwCufqiz0 ...

Wall Street strategists are sounding alarms that the US economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade tariffs start to show up, potentially restricting the ability of the Fed to slash interest-rates https://t.co/l3qrVXM50s ...

Market Analysis & Economic Outlook - The report addresses rising stagflation fears, but suggests smart investors see opportunity [1] - Pennington Partners & Co argues the US is not repeating the 1970s economic scenario due to improved policy approaches [1] - The report explores how the Federal Reserve's limited rate-cut flexibility, fiscal policy incentives, and corporate investment in artificial intelligence (AI) will shape markets [1] Investment Strategies & Company Protection - The report discusses how investors and companies can protect themselves amid economic uncertainty [1] - Stocks In Translation aims to provide information needed to make the right trade for your portfolio [1] Resources & Information - Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive market data, and advanced tools [1] - Yahoo Finance can be found on various social media platforms including X (Twitter), Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and LinkedIn [1]

The risk of a damaging bout of stagflation means the Fed may have to stand pat on rates even in the face of weak US employment, says @edwardnh in the Everything Risk newsletter https://t.co/fjEJZMYurJ ...

Company Overview - BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) has experienced a significant gap up in stock price due to strong earnings and a potential plan by President Trump to build a nuclear reactor on the moon by 2030 [10] - BWXT is one of the 12 nuclear stocks on the list and supplies nuclear reactors to the U.S. Navy [10] Market Sentiment - There is extreme positive sentiment in the stock market, particularly towards nuclear stocks, driven by the potential moon reactor plan [10] - Other nuclear stocks such as Oklo Inc (OKLO), Nuscale Power Corp (SMR), Centrus Energy Corp (LEU), and Nano Nuclear Energy Inc (NNE) have also seen aggressive buying [10] Earnings Reports - Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD) reported strong earnings but fell short of whisper numbers, leading to a 6% decline in premarket trading [10] - McDonald's Corp (MCD) and Shopify Inc (SHOP) reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers, while Walt Disney Co (DIS), Uber Technologies Inc (UBER), and Amgen Inc (AMGN) reported earnings below whisper numbers [10] Economic Indicators - The ISM Services data came in at 50.1%, below the consensus of 51.5%, indicating potential economic contraction [10] - The prices subindex was reported at 69.9, and the employment subindex at 46.4, contributing to concerns about stagflation [10] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider protection bands consisting of cash or Treasury bills, as well as short to medium-term hedges [11] - A traditional 60/40 portfolio may need to focus on high-quality bonds and bonds of five years duration or less, given the current market conditions [15]

CRYPTO DAYBOOK AMERICAS: Stagflation jitters have options traders hedging, and on Polymarket the odds of $BTC dipping below $100K hit 55%, @godbole17 and @shauryamalwa report.https://t.co/yXYbS6bISH ...