Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - President Trump announced significant tariff cuts on various food items, including beef, coffee, and tropical fruit, to combat rising grocery prices and ease inflation concerns [2][3] - The removal of tariffs has been met with mixed reactions, with companies like Starbucks and Hormel Foods potentially benefiting from lower input costs [3][4] - The market's immediate response to the tariff rollbacks was characterized by volatility, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 800 points (1.7%) on November 13, 2025, and continuing to decline the following day [4] Group 2: International Trade Agreements - The U.S. reached a significant trade deal with Switzerland, reducing tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, with Swiss companies pledging to invest $200 billion in the U.S. by 2028 [5][6] - Uzbekistan committed to purchasing and investing $35 billion over the next three years, potentially exceeding $100 billion in the next decade, across various U.S. sectors [6][7] - These trade agreements are aimed at increasing economic engagement and countering the influences of Russia and China [7] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Analysts have noted that Trump's tariffs were labeled as the largest U.S. tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, projecting a 0.6% reduction in U.S. GDP [9][10] - The market experienced significant turmoil in early 2025, with the Dow suffering losses exceeding 1,500 points following the announcement of new tariffs [10][11] - The "on-again, off-again" approach to trade policy has left analysts scrambling, with some suggesting that a cessation of certain tariffs could materially upgrade growth forecasts for the second half of 2025 [11][12]

A new poll finds President Trump getting low marks on what was one of his biggest campaign issues, cost of living. The AP poll finds only onethird of Americans approve of his handling of the economy along with just 22% of independents. And it seems like Trump is all too aware of it, reportedly asking CEOs at a White House dinner this week for their advice on the matter.We're hoping to get Michael Hardaway connected back up, but we do have Brendan Buck with me. So, you're going to take all the questions, my ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is shifting, with officials expressing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation rather than support the labor market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid indicated that additional interest-rate cuts might solidify higher inflation instead of aiding the cooling labor market [2][3]. - Schmid's remarks have influenced market expectations regarding a potential interest-rate cut in December, which was previously anticipated with near certainty [2][3]. - The Fed's dual mandate requires balancing price stability and low unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - Pre-shutdown data showed unemployment stable at 4.3%, but there are rising concerns about fewer job openings and new hires [4]. - Annual inflation stands at 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, indicating ongoing price pressures despite a recent interest rate cut [5]. - The increase in costs for essentials like groceries, rent, and utilities is affecting household and business sentiment towards the economy [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Challenges - Price pressures are attributed to both tariff-related inflation and emerging concerns in the service sector, particularly in elder-care and day-care costs [9]. - The government shutdown has created a data gap, forcing the Fed to rely on private surveys and alternative data sources for economic indicators [9].

I have said all year that tariffs lead to lower prices and do not cause inflation.Now the Fed is agreeing based on their recent study of the last 150 years.You would have known this back in April if you read the daily letter I write.Subscribe here: https://t.co/29uk453LoPGeiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital):Absolutely incredible…The SF Fed just released a study of 150 years of US tariff policies. The conclusion?Tariffs lead to *lower* inflation. https://t.co/WeKJQ1l3N9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant sell-off in the spot gold and silver markets, with gold prices dropping sharply from a recent high [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - On November 15, spot gold fell below $4040 per ounce, reaching a low of $4031.82, marking a decline of nearly $180 from the previous day's high of $4210, with a daily drop exceeding 3% [2] - As of 9 AM, gold was reported at $4082.16 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.13% [2] - Spot silver also experienced a significant drop of over 4%, falling below the $51 mark to a current price of $50.517 per ounce [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 54.2%, a substantial increase from a month ago [2] - Conversely, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has plummeted from 94.4% to 45.8% [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations for policy tightening, with Logan stating that it is difficult to support a rate cut in December without clear evidence of inflation decreasing or a significant cooling in the labor market [2] Group 3: Divergence in Fed Officials' Views - Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see approach regarding the December decision, while Musalem noted that current policy is closer to neutral [2] - Collins emphasized the necessity of maintaining interest rates, despite some officials like Milan advocating for a dovish shift based on data [2] - Daly reiterated the commitment to the 2% inflation target and stressed the need for more economic data to guide decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - Progressive's stock is down 25% from its peak, presenting a buying opportunity due to its strong market position and profitability in the auto insurance industry [1][3][16] Group 1: Company Overview - Progressive is the second-largest auto insurer in the U.S. with a 15% market share, trailing only State Farm [6] - The company primarily operates in the automotive insurance sector, which has consistent demand due to legal requirements for coverage [5] - Progressive's current market capitalization is $132 billion, with a stock price of $225.18 [4] Group 2: Competitive Position - The auto insurance industry is highly competitive, and Progressive's scale allows it to negotiate better costs and acquire customers more efficiently [6] - The company has demonstrated superior profitability, generating approximately $8 in underwriting for every $100 in premiums earned, which is notable in a competitive market [9] Group 3: Economic Resilience - Progressive serves as a hedge against inflation, with the ability to increase premiums in response to rising costs, while also benefiting from higher bond yields that enhance investment income [15] - The company is well-positioned to thrive in a growing economy, making it an attractive long-term investment [16]

Group 1 - The current economic environment features inflation, unemployment rates, Treasury yields, and interest rates at levels different from historical norms, suggesting a potential long-tail effect from the pandemic [1] - The focus is on U.S. and European equities, particularly undervalued growth stocks and high-quality dividend growers, indicating a strategic investment approach [1] - Sustained profitability, characterized by strong margins, stable and expanding free cash flow, and high returns on invested capital, is emphasized as a more reliable driver of returns than valuation alone [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy includes managing a portfolio publicly on eToro, where the individual has achieved the status of a Popular Investor, allowing others to replicate real-time investment decisions [1] - The interdisciplinary background in Economics, Classical Philology, Philosophy, and Theology enhances both quantitative analysis and the interpretation of market narratives [1] - The investment philosophy aims to balance asset accumulation with the freedom to choose work that aligns with personal expression, rather than solely seeking financial independence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market showed resilience despite global market weaknesses, with the S&P 500 recovering losses aided by bargain hunters, while concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates influenced market sentiment [1][14]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 309.74 points (0.65%) to 47,147.48 but recorded a weekly gain of 0.3% [8] - The S&P 500 decreased by 3.38 points (0.05%) to 6,734.11, resulting in a weekly gain of 0.1% [8] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 30.23 points (0.13%) to 22,900.59, ending the week with a loss of approximately 0.5% [8] - MSCI's global equities gauge declined by 4.37 points (0.44%) to 995.79, indicating a weekly gain of around 0.4% [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about persistent inflation, with Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid highlighting that inflation issues extend beyond tariffs, indicating potential dissent regarding future rate cuts [2][14] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan opposed a December rate cut, citing high inflation as a concern [2][14] - Following comments from Fed officials, traders adjusted expectations for a quarter-point rate cut next month to a 46% probability, down from 66.9% the previous week [5][14] Sector-Specific Developments - The technology sector showed some recovery, with Nvidia, a leader in AI chips, increasing by 1.8%, while the smaller cap S&P 600 technology index closed up 0.3% [6][14] - Upcoming quarterly earnings reports from Nvidia and major retailers are anticipated to provide insights into consumer health and AI demand [6][14] Global Market Trends - European markets, including the pan-European STOXX 600 index and FTSEurofirst 300 index, closed down about 1% [9][14] - Asian shares outside Japan fell by 1.5% before U.S. markets opened [10][14] Currency and Commodity Movements - The dollar index rose by 0.02% to 99.26, with the euro down 0.08% at $1.1622, while the Japanese yen strengthened slightly against the dollar [11][14] - Oil prices increased due to supply concerns, with U.S. crude rising by 2.39% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude up by 2.19% to $64.39 per barrel [13][15] - Gold prices fell following hawkish remarks from Fed officials, with spot gold down 2.12% to $4,082.76 per ounce [13][15]

Market Overview - The market partially recovered after an early session selloff that affected all three major Wall Street indexes, which were down more than 1% [1] - The S&P 500 lost 2.70 points (0.05%) to end at 6,734.42 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 29.17 points (0.13%) to 22,899.53, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 308.29 points (0.65%) to 47,148.93 [10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished due to persistent inflation, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut falling to under 50% from 67% last week [2] - Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid expressed concerns about "too hot" inflation, indicating potential dissent at the Fed's December meeting if short-term borrowing costs are cut [5] Artificial Intelligence Sector - Nvidia, a key player in the AI chip market, is set to report quarterly results, with investors looking for signs that the competition in emerging technology remains strong [6] - Heavyweight AI stocks, including Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft, and Tesla, saw gains despite broader market concerns [1] Corporate Developments - Warner Bros Discovery's stock increased after the company amended CEO David Zaslav's employment agreement amid a strategic business review [10] - Cidara Therapeutics shares doubled following Merck's announcement of its acquisition of the company in a deal valued at nearly $9.2 billion [9]

Economic Data Release - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release September's nonfarm payrolls data on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, following the 42-day government shutdown [1] - The shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, beginning on October 1 and ending with a bipartisan Senate deal that approved funding through January 30 [1] Labor Market Indicators - The Labor Department did not release its weekly unemployment benefits report for seven weeks, complicating the understanding of the labor market [2] - The jobless claims report is considered an early indicator of labor market trends [2] Inflation Data - September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a headline inflation rate of 3.0%, slightly below the forecast of 3.1%, and core inflation also at 3.0%, down from 3.1% [4] - Monthly core inflation was reported at 0.2%, which was below expectations [4] Job Market Concerns - Major employers like Amazon, UPS, and Intel announced significant job cuts, contributing to concerns about the job market [4] - Carlyle Group data indicated only 17,000 jobs were created in September, significantly below the forecast of 54,000, marking the weakest hiring since the 2020 recession [5] Political Reactions - Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the Federal Reserve for lacking data and accused the Trump administration of withholding September jobs data [5] - The absence of official BLS figures has led to increased political pressure regarding the delayed economic data [5]