Economic Data Accuracy - The US economy's unpredictability is concerning given its size and sophistication [1] - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data revisions show a downgrade in actual job growth [1] - The US economy created approximately 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March 2024 [1] - Inaccurate employment data leads to inaccurate GDP assessments [2] - Bad data is a fixable problem that requires prioritization and effort [3] Market Implications - Sophisticated capital markets can react to real-time data and make informed decisions [3] - The combination of inaccurate employment and GDP data could be problematic for the economy [2] Data Collection & Reporting - There is a need to prioritize fixing the data collection and reporting systems [3] - Existing systems and SAS tools should be leveraged to improve the accuracy of employment data [3]

Employment Trends - US jobs growth experienced the steepest downward revisions since the pandemic [1] - The downward revisions are partly due to seasonal adjustment issues [1] - Economists attribute the revisions to a broader trend of low response rates [1]

Economic Indicators - June construction spending decreased by 04% [2] - Manufacturing ISM headline number is 480%, marking the fifth consecutive month in contraction territory [1][2] - Prices paid decreased to 648%, the lowest since February [2] - New orders are light at 471%, remaining under 50% for the fifth consecutive month [2][3] - Employment comes in at 434%, well below expectations [3] Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan sentiment final read shows a slight decrease from 618 to 617 [3] - Current conditions improved from 668% to 680%, the second-best reading of the year [4] - Expectations decreased from 586% to 577%, the weakest level since March [5] - One-year inflation expectation increased from 44% to 45%, while the 5 to 10-year inflation expectation decreased from 36% to 34%, the second-lowest reading of the year [5] Employment Data - May non-farm payroll was revised from 144000 to 19000, and June was 147000, resulting in a combined minus 258000 [6]

#数据 目前美国制造业总就业人数处于2022年4月以来的最低水平。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国7月季调后制造业就业人口减少1.1万人，降幅大于预期的0.3万人，6月份减少0.7万人。数据自4月以来一直在减少，与特朗普“将制造业带回美国”的目标背道而驰。 https://t.co/qImO4Zpna5 ...

US Jobs Report July 2025: Live News on Employment, Payrolls https://t.co/EE8bue6nTw ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry aims to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored [1] - The industry intends to prevent a one-time price level increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem [1] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [1] - The industry is attentive to risks on the employment side of its mandate [2] Economic Assessment - The industry is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks [1] - The industry will receive a good amount of data in coming months to inform its assessment of the balance of risks [2] - This data will help determine the appropriate setting of the federal funds [2]

Summary of Federal Reserve System Update / Briefing July 30, 2025 Key Points on the Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions Economic Overview - The economy is in a solid position with a low unemployment rate and maximum employment achieved [1][4] - GDP growth moderated to 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year, with a stronger second quarter growth of 3% [2][3] - Consumer spending has slowed, while business investment in equipment and intangibles has increased [3][4] - The housing sector remains weak, and payroll job gains averaged 150,000 per month over the past three months [3][4] Inflation Insights - Inflation is running above the 2% target, with total PCE prices rising 2.5% over the past year and core PCE prices rising 2.7% [5][4] - Services inflation has eased, but increased tariffs are contributing to higher prices in some goods categories [5][6] - The Fed is focused on keeping longer-term inflation expectations anchored while managing potential inflation risks [7][6] Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.5% [2][6] - The current monetary policy is viewed as modestly restrictive, appropriate for the current economic conditions [11][12] - The Fed is awaiting more data on employment and inflation before making decisions on potential rate cuts [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market remains solid, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and wage growth moderating but still outpacing inflation [4][21] - There are downside risks to the labor market, with job creation slowing and the supply of workers also declining [20][81] - The Fed is closely monitoring the balance of risks in the labor market and the overall economy [8][81] Future Considerations - The Fed is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and the broader economy [31][36] - Discussions are ongoing about potential revisions to the monetary policy framework, with a focus on balancing maximum employment and price stability [9][84] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of data in guiding future monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding inflation and employment [63][94] Additional Insights - The Fed does not consider the fiscal needs of the government when making monetary policy decisions, focusing instead on its dual mandate [40][41] - The independence of the Fed is highlighted as crucial for making data-driven decisions without political influence [73][74] - The Fed is monitoring the evolving economic landscape, including consumer spending trends and the effects of tariffs on inflation [76][78]

Core Points - Economic activity growth moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and solid labor market conditions, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The Federal Reserve aims for maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2 percent, amidst elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with ongoing assessments of incoming data and risks [3][4] Monetary Policy Implementation - Effective July 31, 2025, the interest rate on reserve balances is set at 4.4 percent, with open market operations to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range [8] - Standing overnight repurchase agreement operations will have a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion [8] - The Federal Reserve will reinvest principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities into Treasury securities, with a monthly cap of $35 billion [8]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve views its current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks and is attentive to employment risks [3] - The committee is on track to wrap up any modifications to its statement on longer run goals and monetary policy strategy by late summer [4] - The Federal Reserve aims to bring inflation sustainably to its 2% goal and keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored [5] Economic Outlook and Risks - Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain [1] - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen [1] - There is a risk that inflationary effects could be more persistent [2] - The Federal Reserve is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting its policy stance [3] Data and Assessment - In coming months, the committee will receive a good amount of data that will help inform its assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate [4]

U.S. July ADP employment increased by 104K, the largest gain since March, beating expectations of 75K and up from the previous -33K. ...