Japanese Bond Market Analysis - Japanese 30-year bond market is experiencing significant activity, with the 10 to 30-year spread nearly twice the normal spread over the last 25 years, reaching almost 160 compared to the usual 85 [2] - Japan is undergoing a normalization of its monetary policy after a period of yield curve controls and deflation [3][10] - The rise in Japanese bond yields could lead to a slowdown in the Japanese economy [7] Carry Trade Implications - Estimates suggest a $500 billion carry trade exists, and rising Japanese yields could cause capital to flow from the US back to Japan [5] - The unwinding of the carry trade is expected to continue as the US lowers interest rates and Japan raises them [10] Bond Samurai Influence - "Bond Samurai" are influencing the Japanese government to slow down quantitative tightening and adjust bond issuance towards the long end [6] - If the Japanese government doesn't heed the "Bond Samurai's" advice, rates could rise further, leading to a significant economic slowdown that could impact the US [7] US Market Impact - US real rates are approximately 100 basis points too high on the long end [11] - High US real rates could lead to a continued economic slowdown in the US unless they are lowered quickly [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may justifiably maintain its current interest rate stance based on new wage and employment data [1][5]. Wage Data - The CBA's inaugural Wage and Labour Insights report indicates a wage increase of 0.8% in November, with an annual growth rate of 3.2%, up from 3.1% the previous month but below the late 2024 peak of 4.1% [4]. - The report is based on de-identified salary flows from approximately 400,000 bank accounts [4]. Employment Data - Employment numbers are expected to show the creation of over 25,000 new jobs in November, with a trend employment growth of 26,000, leading to a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.4% [5]. - This slight increase in employment growth supports a cautious approach by the RBA regarding interest rates [5]. Economic Outlook - The consensus among economists is for no change in the cash interest rate, currently at 3.60%, with predictions of no changes through 2026 [8]. - Recent inflation data for October shows annual prices rising by 3.8%, exceeding the RBA's target band upper limit of 3% [8]. - Economic growth for the year ending September was reported at 2.1%, indicating a stable economic condition in Australia [9].

The main reason we need much lower interest rates in America is because the economy is getting smacked with multiple deflationary forces.Artificial intelligence is empowering companies to drive more profits with fewer employees. This is deflationary.Robotics is squeezing inefficiency out of companies, factories, traffic, and warehouses. This is deflationary.Deportations are reducing the number of people available for certain jobs, while driving down demand for homes, food, and gas. This is deflationary.If y ...

Meanwhile, broader markets closing out the week with gains, but off their highs of the session. The S&P and Dow both less than 1% from records. The moves come after the latest read on inflation.September reading delayed by the shutdown came in about in line with expectations. All this ahead of this year's final Fed decision next week. For more, let's bring in Andrew Davis, director of macroeconomic research at Bridmore Trust Advisors.Andrew, great to have you with us. >> Thanks for having me. Great to see y ...

President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026. Bloomberg reported last week that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is seen as the likely choice to succeed Powell. The Fed’s independence would come into question, as Hassett supports President Trump’s approach to cutting interest rates at the Fed.The University of Michigan US Dec 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, better than expectations of no change at 4.5% and the smallest p ...

Market Outlook - Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer discusses the unexpected market events of 2025 and what investors should monitor [1] - The discussion covers market resiliency, AI, Federal Reserve policy, gold, Bitcoin, and a weaker dollar [1] Key Topics - Market Resiliency is a key area of focus [1] - The role of AI in the market is explored [1] - Federal Reserve policy and interest rates are discussed [1] - The potential of gold as an investment is examined [1] - The future of Bitcoin is debated [1] - The impact of a weaker dollar is analyzed [1] Additional Information - The webcast is for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice [1]

Last Updated: 5 hours ago U.S. Treasury Yields Spike After Hawkish Comments From Bank of Japan CONCLUDED Stock Market Today: Stocks Close Lower, Kicking Off December in the Red By Martin Baccardax U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday, taking 10-year notes to their highest levels in nearly two weeks, following an overnight bond market selloff linked to hawkish comments on interest rates from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said Monday that he and his colleagues would weigh the "pros and cons of r ...

Core Insights - Today's CD rates are significantly higher than the national average, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts [1][3] - The highest CD rate currently available is 4.1% APY, offered by Marcus by Goldman Sachs and Sallie Mae [2] - The national average CD rate for a 1-year term is 1.68%, indicating that current rates are among the highest seen in nearly two decades [3] Best CD Rates - As of December 1, 2025, the top CD rate is 4.1% APY for 14-month and 15-month terms [2] - Online banks and credit unions typically provide more competitive rates compared to traditional banks [3] Finding the Best CD Rates - It is advisable to shop around and compare CD rates from various financial institutions [4] - Online banks often have lower overhead costs, allowing them to offer higher interest rates on CDs [4] - Potential investors should check minimum deposit requirements and review account terms, including early withdrawal penalties [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ares Capital Corporation presents an attractive investment opportunity with a 9.3% dividend yield, but investors should be aware of potential risks associated with lending to mid-sized companies [1][4][10]. Company Overview - Ares Capital Corporation operates as the largest business development company (BDC) in the United States, primarily lending to middle-market businesses at high interest rates [4]. - The company is required to distribute 90% of its taxable income to investors, making its dividend yield appealing for passive income seekers [4]. Financial Performance - The current stock price of Ares Capital is $20.62, which is 14% below its 52-week high [2][3]. - The market capitalization stands at $15 billion, with a gross margin of 76.26% [3][4]. - As of September 30, only 3.6% of its investments are performing below expectations, a slight increase from 2.9% at the end of December [9]. Interest Rate Sensitivity - Ares Capital's earnings are closely tied to interest rates, with many loans having floating rates. A decline in interest rates could negatively impact interest income and net investment income [5]. - The company is more attractive in stable or rising interest rate environments due to the potential for earnings erosion in a rate-cut cycle [5]. Credit Quality and Risks - The credit quality of underlying assets is a key risk for investors, as Ares Capital lends to companies that often lack access to traditional financing, making them riskier borrowers [6]. - Recent high-profile defaults, such as those of First Brands and Tricolor, have raised concerns about the stability of certain credit markets [7][8]. - Ares Capital has no exposure to these troubled companies and employs thorough due diligence to mitigate risks associated with receivables financing [8]. Management and Strategy - The management team has extensive experience in lending to middle-market companies, with a diversified portfolio of over 587 companies across various sectors [9]. - Approximately 61% of Ares Capital's loans are first lien, providing priority in repayment if borrowers face difficulties [9]. - The CEO has indicated that the company is positioned to maintain its current dividend payout for the foreseeable future, as core earnings exceed the dividend payment [11].

Group 1 - BNP Paribas anticipates stronger growth and inflation in the Eurozone by 2026, suggesting a prolonged rate hold and a potential rate hike as the next move [1] - Euro-area inflation is expected to remain steady at just above the ECB's 2% target in November, with a sustained deceleration anticipated in December, which may pressure the ECB to ease policy next year [1][2] - The ECB is currently in a holding pattern with no clear consensus on future rate moves, influenced by mixed national inflation reports from Germany, Spain, France, and Italy [3] Group 2 - Consumer prices in the Eurozone are projected to rise by 2.1% year-over-year in November, with the underlying measure expected to remain at 2.4%, indicating stability that may allow the ECB to avoid rate changes in December [5] - The upcoming OECD forecasts and various economic indicators from the US and Canada will provide additional context for global economic conditions [6][7] - The Bank of Canada plans to maintain its policy rate at 2.25% as long as economic and inflation trends align with expectations, anticipating a soft labor market [11] Group 3 - In Asia, a series of manufacturing purchasing manager indexes and price indicators will be released, providing insights into regional economic momentum [11] - Japan's economic indicators will be closely watched for signals regarding a potential December rate hike [12] - Brazil's economic growth streak may have ended, attributed to strict monetary policy and the impact of US tariffs, raising concerns about a possible shallow recession [22] Group 4 - Mexico's economic reports are expected to highlight a widening output gap and loss of momentum, exacerbated by US trade policies [23] - Chile may report a slight cooling in consumer prices, potentially leading to a quarter-point rate cut by central bankers [24] - Peru and Colombia are also expected to show signs of deceleration in consumer price growth, indicating broader regional economic challenges [25]