Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in small-cap stocks, driven by falling interest rates and economic growth, is expected to continue into 2026, with small caps potentially leading market gains [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 Index has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for four consecutive weeks, marking the longest such stretch in two years, despite a selloff in equities [2]. - Over the past month, both the Russell 2000 and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index have increased approximately 4%, surpassing the performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks, which rose only 0.3%, while the S&P 500 Index dropped by 0.3% [4]. Group 2: Future Projections - Strategists from major firms predict that small-cap leadership will extend into 2026, contingent on further rate cuts and economic growth, as well as a shift away from high-valued megacaps [3]. - Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG anticipates that small caps will continue to outperform the Magnificent 7, especially as investors may take profits from Big Tech due to high valuations [5]. - Bank of America's Jill Carey Hall forecasts a 17% earnings growth for small firms compared to 14% for large caps, attributing this to a potential profits rebound, rate cuts, and shifting investor flows [6].

Switzerland lifts the growth outlook for next year on the back of its trade deal with the US https://t.co/4vfS0FpFlv ...

Chinese President Xi Jinping lashed out at inflated growth numbers and vowed to crack down on the pursuit of “reckless” projects that have no purpose except showing superficial results https://t.co/RGu4LKbUJb ...

A hard truth of financial markets is that politics will cloud your judgement and lead to bad decision-making.Democrats believe inflation will be over 5% in a year and Republicans believe it will be under 1.5%.Democrats believe the economy is headed towards the Great Depression and Republicans believe an economic utopia is right around the corner.The truth is always somewhere in the middle.The US economy is very strong. GDP growth is accelerating. Real wages are growing, housing prices have started to come d ...

分组1 - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time this year, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5-3.75%, which has led to a rally in U.S. stocks [1][3][9] - The Fed's decision comes despite ongoing high inflation, indicating a shift in focus towards supporting economic growth [4][5] - The Fed projects inflation to slow to 2.4% and economic growth to accelerate to 2.3% by the end of 2026, which is seen as positive for the broader market [6] 分组2 - Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL) has an expected earnings growth rate of 17.9% for the current year, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate improvement of 29.5% over the last 60 days [7] - Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) is expected to see a 30% earnings growth rate this year, with a 10.5% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [8] - Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is projected to have an earnings growth rate of over 100% for the current year, with an 83.3% improvement in earnings estimates over the past 60 days [10] - Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB) has an expected earnings growth rate of 12.5%, with a slight improvement of 0.7% in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [11]

talking about the economy and maybe what the Fed's going to do. Uh we're going to talk about that, the markets, uh and everything else. Want to bring in David Servos.He is chief market strategist at Jeffre, a CNBC contributor. Uh good morning to you. We'll talk to Austin Goldby later.I'm curious what you thought of what you heard earlier this week from the Federal Reserve and uh what you think it portends and were you surprised that the equity markets actually moved up on the back of this news. You [clears ...

Core Viewpoint - The Financial Stability Council is adopting changes aimed at reducing regulatory burdens to enhance economic growth, which is deemed essential for financial stability [1][2]. Regulatory Changes - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted that previous regulations have created "undue burdens" that hinder economic growth [1]. - The council aims to modernize regulations to consider cumulative burdens and their impact on resilience and growth [2]. Economic Growth and Financial Stability - Stronger economic growth is linked to increased bank profits and capital buffers, which help mitigate unexpected losses [2]. - Households and businesses with robust balance sheets are more resilient to economic shocks, reducing the likelihood of defaults and encouraging continued spending and investment [2]. Household Resilience Initiatives - A new household resilience working group will be established to monitor consumer financial resilience and identify early warning signs of stress through analysis of borrowing and credit access [4]. - Financially resilient households are better equipped to handle economic shocks and maintain essential consumption [4]. Cybersecurity and AI Focus - The Financial Stability Oversight Council is prioritizing economic security by enhancing protections against cyberattacks and improving resilience in the Treasury market [5]. - A new AI working group will explore how artificial intelligence can bolster financial system resilience while assessing potential risks [5]. Access to Credit - The council emphasizes the importance of ensuring that credit flows to the economy, particularly to small businesses, which are considered vital for growth [6].

The first mountain was of course after co where inflation went up to almost 10% and now it's come down again to around 3%. The risk is that there's another mountain because you could have growth coming partly because of AI. There's also the one big beautiful bill.One of the important laws in the one big beautiful bill is that you could do immediate expensing of your capital expenditures if you're a company. Normally you have to do that over several years. If that's the case you should expect to see a boom c ...

AI Impact on Labor Market & Economy - The market is considering the potential impact of AI expansion on the labor market, with concerns about job displacement [1] - There's uncertainty regarding AI's impact on the economy, specifically whether it will increase the unemployment rate [2] - While AI implementation is expected to create productivity gains for companies, the macro-level impact, especially by 2026, remains uncertain [5][6] Affordability & Fiscal Policy - The rising prices of education, healthcare, and housing are consuming a larger share of consumer spending, impacting affordability [9][10] - The Federal Reserve has limited tools to directly address the affordability crisis, particularly in sectors like housing [11][12] - Fiscal policy, particularly actions by Congress, such as rolling back tariffs on food or providing tax incentives for first-time home buyers (e g, $5,000 or $10,000), could help improve affordability [14][15][16] Inflation & Economic Growth - There's a risk of a second inflation surge due to growth driven by AI and fiscal policy, particularly the immediate expensing of capital expenditures [19][20][21] - The market rally is potentially anticipating an economic boom, leading to increased investment in sectors like technology stocks [22] - The narrative is shifting from concerns about economic slowdown to expectations of accelerated growth, potentially leading to increased corporate earnings by 2026 [25][26] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The potential for political influence on the Federal Reserve's decisions, especially regarding interest rate cuts, is a concern [27][30] - Disagreement among Federal Reserve members regarding interest rate policy is increasing, potentially leading to less clear messaging from the Fed [31][32] - The choice of the new Fed chair in May 2026 is critical, as they will need to balance the risks of high inflation against a potentially weaker labor market [28][29]

Trade and Geopolitical Factors - Trade deal timeline is uncertain, influenced by geopolitical developments more than bilateral trade issues [1][2] - A trade deal agreement would significantly boost Indian market sentiment by removing risk premium [4] - Trade uncertainties impact GDP projections, but domestic economy and exporter diversification mitigate negative effects [5] Economic Growth and Reforms - India's potential growth has likely increased due to decade-long structural reforms, including public infrastructure investment, digital infrastructure rollout, GST, and insolvency/bankruptcy code [8] - The economy has consistently outperformed expectations in the last five years post-COVID, suggesting potential for continued positive surprises in fiscal year 2026-2027 [11] - RBI estimates India's growth at 73% for fiscal year 2025-2026, and predicts around 67% for the next fiscal year [10] Consumption and Household Savings - Consumption is expected to strengthen, particularly in urban India, supported by GST reform and direct tax relief [12][14] - Rural consumption is performing well due to successive good monsoons and real wage/income growth [12][13] - India's household savings rate has increased from 49% of GDP in 2022-2023 to 6% of GDP, indicating improved household balance sheets [15] Rupee and Inflation - Weaker rupee improves the Indian trade balance on a net basis, offsetting import costs and benefiting exporters [17][18] - Rupee weakness reflects investor caution and is undervalued relative to India's economic fundamentals [20][22] - The rupee could be undervalued by 5% to 15% in real effective terms [24] - Lower inflation is seen as beneficial for the Indian economy, reflecting the impact of structural reforms on supply-side constraints [32] Aviation Industry - Recent disruptions in the aviation sector, such as flight cancellations, are expected to lead to better systems and resilience in the long run [38] - The long-term impact of aviation issues on Indian domestic and foreign tourism is not expected to be significant, given growing market and purchasing power [40]