Concerns Regarding Private Credit - The financial system is potentially creating a new shadow banking system as activities move away from traditional banking [1] - The economy and economic growth are exquisitely sensitive, raising questions about the performance of these investments, especially at this scale [1] - Increased size and consolidation in private credit raise concerns about underlying risks [2] - Banks' lending to private credit firms creates interconnectedness [2] - A major accident in private credit has not yet been observed [2]

Trade Agreement & Market Sentiment - Japan is committed to invest approximately $500 billion, though details are limited [1] - A new deal deadline of August 1st could reduce market uncertainty [2] - The Yen might strengthen, potentially making Japan a more attractive market for both domestic and US investors [3] - Investors are fairly sanguine, with some complacency evident [6] Investment Strategy & Diversification - International diversification, particularly in developed markets including Japan, is favored over emerging markets due to inherent risks [4] - Global diversification can accrue benefits compared to focusing solely on the US market [5] Recession & Market Risk - Bond traders and investors are considering the possibility of a recession [9] - Recession risk remains, especially if the labor market weakens [10] - There's increased risk due to potential negative catalysts, given the current complacency [8]

Company Overview - Figma, a design software company, has published an updated prospectus for its initial public offering (IPO) [1] - The company plans to sell approximately 37 million shares at a price range of $25 to $28 each, potentially generating up to $1 billion in proceeds [1] Valuation Insights - The IPO could result in a fully diluted valuation for Figma between $14.6 billion and $16.4 billion [2] - Co-founder Dylan Field intends to sell 2.35 million shares, which could be valued at as much as $65.8 million [2] - In a 2024 tender offer, investors valued Figma at $12.5 billion, while Adobe previously agreed to acquire the company for $20 billion in 2022 before the deal was halted by regulatory objections [2] Industry Context - The flow of technology companies going public in the U.S. has slowed since late 2021 due to concerns over inflation and recession, leading to decreased investor interest in fast-growing but unprofitable companies [3] - Despite the slowdown, some technology stocks have recently gone public, including CoreWeave in March and Circle and Chime in June [3]

Not long ago, Donald Trump could rattle Wall Street for days with a single post. Now, for all the political noise and recession warnings, the US economy refuses to buckle — and markets, against the odds, are behaving rationally https://t.co/2UwHctCPw2 ...

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hitting all-time highs earlier today and tracking for a positive week. Joining me now with his outlook for stocks, JP Morgan asset management global market strategist Jordan Jackson. Jordan, thank you for being here.Um, so it seems like you are not expecting a recession over the next 12 months. Uh, what are some of the headwinds that could derail that expectation. Well, I think the market is fairly sanguin over the very very near term, right.Uh we've got potential reciprocal tariffs b ...

Economic Resilience - The world economy's resilience over the past decade has largely kept at bay recession and unemployment [1] Government Influence - Governments are undermining the fundamental sources of the world economy's strength [1]

Economic Concerns and Consumer Behavior - 51% of Canadians cite recession as a top financial concern for the next six months, with 44% planning to reduce discretionary spending [1][10] - 63% of Canadians are looking for sales and discounts more frequently, while 40% are shopping at more affordable retailers [1][15] - 27% of Canadians report they will not be able to pay all current bills and loans in full, with 68% of those unable to pay indicating credit card payments as a priority [2][9] Mortgage Renewal and Financial Strain - Approximately 60% of Canadians' mortgages are up for renewal in 2025 or 2026, leading to potential payment shock due to rising interest rates [4][10] - Over two million consumers have seen a 25% increase in monthly mortgage payments since March 2022, with the average payment rising from $1,527 to $1,908 [5][6] - 53% of Gen X Canadians feel their financial situation is worse than planned, indicating a generational disparity in financial stress [3][9] Credit and Spending Adjustments - 72% of Canadians are not considering purchasing a home in the next year, reflecting a cautious approach to credit participation [7][10] - 74% of Canadians anticipating a recession plan to reduce spending to maintain financial resilience [11] - 46% of Canadians reported being targeted by fraud attempts, yet 37% took no action in response to cybersecurity concerns [12]

Inflation & Tariffs Impact - CPI rose 27% last month, core CPI increased by 29%, potentially indicating tariffs are impacting the economy [1] - Core goods inflation, excluding autos, rose approximately 03% in June, suggesting a tariff impact [2] - If prices are up 03% and sales are up 03%, real spending on goods is declining in America [3] Economic Slowdown & Recession Risk - The analyst maintains a reasonable expectation of a potential recession [2][5] - Labor markets are cooling, with hourly earnings not rising at a particularly strong rate [4] - Consumer spending will likely moderate due to slowing disposable income growth [6] - The housing market may already be in recession, with prices declining in major markets [8][9] - State and local governments are tightening their belts, exemplified by layoffs [9] Key Indicators to Watch - Employment and income growth are crucial indicators for assessing the consumer and the overall economy [10][11] - Declining home prices, the most important asset for many consumers, signal potential economic slowdown [11]

Economic Performance - Singapore's economy expanded in the second quarter [1] - The expansion avoided a technical recession [1] Industry Dynamics - Rise in construction activity contributed to the expansion [1] - Strong exports supported the economic growth [1]

Group 1 - Economists have been predicting a recession for an extended period, but recent factors such as massive layoffs, immigration deportations, and the government's national deficit may lead to a recession engineered by the government [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of individual due diligence in investment decisions, highlighting that the author is not a registered investment professional or financial advisor [2] - The author expresses a focus on dividend investing in quality blue-chip stocks, BDCs, and REITs, aiming to help lower and middle-class workers build investment portfolios [2]