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Risks to Fed Independence | Real Yield 9/19/2025
Youtube· 2025-09-19 18:35
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut rates for the first time this year by 25 basis points, leading to a rise in bond yields and the lowest credit spreads since 1998 [1][2][3] - The market is adjusting to a less aggressive rate-cutting cycle, with the two-year yield reflecting this shift [3][4] - There is a split within the Federal Reserve committee regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for one or fewer cuts for the remainder of the year [6][7][8] Group 2 - The consensus among economists suggests that there may be only one more rate cut this year, despite the Fed's recent actions [7][8] - The labor market remains a point of confusion, with expectations of upward revisions to payroll data, indicating a stable economy [10][11][12] - Inflation concerns persist, with the Fed's target of 2% being questioned as historical data suggests higher average inflation rates [14][15][17] Group 3 - The credit market is expected to perform well into the fourth quarter, supported by the Fed's rate cuts and a focus on growth [27][28] - There is a notable shift in credit spreads, with expectations of spreads moving into the 60s, despite the Fed's actions [29] - M&A activity is anticipated to pick up, which could create supply in the credit markets, although refinancing remains the primary activity currently [31][32][36]
Miran, Trump ally on Fed, defends his vote for a bigger rate cut, saying tariffs aren't inflationary
MarketWatch· 2025-09-19 16:02
New Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran, who was nominated for his post by President Donald Trump last month, gave his views Friday in a TV interview. ...
X @Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor· 2025-09-19 12:51
RT J64 (@JBerneburg)“I think structurally the biggest beneficiary of a rate cut are probably going to be these preferreds on MicroStrategy.” - Jeff Park (@dgt10011)@saylor has these preferreds in a position to consume capital as the rates lower and the spread on the yield widens. The fundamentals are impossible to ignore. BTC risk is mispriced and bitcoin treasury companies are going to be benefit from that. Listen to @APompliano and Jeff talk about the BTCTC marketplace. ...
Markets hit highs as Fed cuts lift small caps, health care and gold
CNBC Television· 2025-09-19 12:03
Market Analysis & Trends - The market experienced mixed results following the Fed rate cut, with indices closing lower on the day of the cut, except for the Russell [1] - There's an ongoing debate about whether the recent moves in the Russell 2000 are a catch-up play, given the outperformance of other major indices this year [4] - The market's high valuations are considered more palatable in a rate-cutting environment, although current levels are near historic highs [8] - The market is in a precarious position but supported by tailwinds like the AI revolution and potential policy alignment [10] Small Cap Stocks - Small cap companies are more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy due to their reliance on short-term rates [5] - Small cap value stocks are estimated to trade at a 15% to 20% discount to their intrinsic value, with Fed easing potentially serving as a catalyst for convergence [6] - Small caps are viewed as a procyclical trade consistent with a bullish market mood [13] Investment Strategies & Sector Outlook - Healthcare is considered a defensive sector that has lagged behind despite strong fundamentals, making it an attractive investment [13][14] - Gold is currently considered expensive, with differing opinions on whether to buy, despite some price targets suggesting it could reach $4,000 [15] - Dollar cost averaging and buying the dip are recommended strategies in the current market environment [11]
Bitcoin: Post-FOMC
Benjamin Cowen· 2025-09-19 04:24
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin post FOMC. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin is still doing what it needs to do, right.It's still holding above the bull market support band. Remember that's the big test for September is to just hold that 20we SMA. ...
Altcoin Season → IT STARTED!! You Can STILL Make Millions In Crypto!!
Altcoin Daily· 2025-09-18 22:38
Market Trends & Opportunities - Crypto market expected to print millionaires in the next 3 months [1][29] - Liquidity is returning to the market due to anticipated rate cuts, benefiting assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, and Cardano [3] - Altcoin season has started, with expectations of significant gains [4][5] - Generic ETF listing standards approved, paving the way for spot crypto ETFs for assets like Dogecoin and XRP [6][7] - Staking ETFs are anticipated next, potentially attracting $7 trillion (万亿) from money market funds into Ethereum and crypto due to yield opportunities [9] - Tokenized equities are seen as a major shift in traditional finance [24] Regulatory Landscape - The Clarity Act aims to regulate crypto by defining when it is a commodity or security [14] - The US Congress is focused on passing the Clarity Act to make America the crypto capital of the world [16] - The Clarity Act received strong bipartisan support in the House [17] Institutional Adoption - Bitcoin and crypto are being integrated into banks and traditional finance, laying the groundwork for a financial reset [25] - Public companies and Wall Street are increasingly adopting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana [11] - Large financial organizations are recognizing the trillions of dollars of opportunities in crypto [27] Technical Analysis & Metrics - Bitcoin is near a new all-time high, while Ethereum is close to its 2021 high [4] - Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses are at their second-largest in 2025 [20] - Bitcoin illiquid supply reaches a new all-time high [21]
X @Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒
every major stock market index in the US just made a new ATH off the back of yesterday's rate cut announcement- S&P 500: new ATH- Nasdaq: new ATH- Dow Jones: new ATHthe Russell 2000 index, which represents small-cap stocks and is often one of the biggest risk-on indicators for altseason, also made a new ATH and closed the day up 2.51%. guess when it last made an ATH? 2021, which was ironically the peak of the bull run last cycleliterally everything is pointing to an aggressive melt-up in risk-on assets, esp ...
Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian: Firings have a way of spreading through the economy
CNBC Television· 2025-09-18 20:53
Market Reaction to Fed Rate Cut - Treasury market experienced volatility, with the 10-year yield initially dropping below 4% following the rate cut decision, then rising to 4116% [2] - Market's upward yield adjustment is attributed to strong jobless claims data and a reassessment of the support for further rate cuts [2][3] Fed's Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is viewed as a risk management measure, prioritizing employment risks over inflation risks [4] - The Fed is perceived to be placing greater emphasis on the employment side of its mandate compared to inflation [4][6] - The Fed is projected to miss its inflation target for seven consecutive years, with inflation exceeding the target by more than 50 basis points (05%) in six of those years [7] Risks and Concerns - The primary risk to the economy is on the employment side, with concerns about companies transitioning from hiring hesitancy to layoffs [5] - There are concerns about the potential for a "cliff effect" if companies begin firing employees, which could spread through the economy [5]
X @Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒
RT Unipcs (aka 'Bonk Guy') 🎒 (@theunipcs)i get the frustration with the crazy volatility that $USELESS has shown over the past few monthsespecially with the aggressive hate directed at USELESS bulls whenever it corrects. i have an army of people attacking me every time USELESS corrects 5% from a local high, even though i bullposted it hard when it was sub $10m... so i want to think i understand this hate better than anyonethat said, people simply need to zoom out and see the big pictureevery other memecoin ...
Rate Cut Rally? Why Amazon, Meta And Ford Could Outpace The Pack
Benzinga· 2025-09-18 20:20
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut signals a shift towards easier monetary policy, creating a new market environment where certain stocks are expected to benefit from lower borrowing costs [1] Winners in a Cheaper Credit World - Historical data indicates that the second year of an easing cycle typically yields significant gains, with the S&P 500 averaging a 26.5% increase in such conditions [2] - Capital-heavy and rate-sensitive sectors are anticipated to perform well, with major tech companies like Amazon.com Inc expected to reach a target price of $265, benefiting from lower financing costs that enhance logistics investments and consumer demand [2] - Meta Platforms Inc is projected to have a target price of $875, capitalizing on AI trends, while cyclical companies like Ford Motor Co could see a price target of $13, benefiting from reduced interest expenses [3] - Carnival Corp is expected to gain from improved cruise demand as affordability increases, and financial institutions like Bank of America Corp may see shares reclaiming $51 due to loan growth and stabilized net interest margins [4] Losers When The Music Slows - Utilities such as Consolidated Edison Inc may underperform in a low-rate environment due to reliance on fixed-rate debt and limited consumer demand upside [5] - Northern Trust Corp, with its asset-sensitive model, may lag behind competitors that benefit from floating-rate leverage [5] - The easing cycle is expected to benefit most sectors, but certain defensive plays may struggle to keep pace with more aggressive growth stocks [5]