Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins emphasizes a cautious approach to monetary policy, advocating for gradual rate cuts due to ongoing inflation risks despite signs of labor market weakness [1][2][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - Collins supports the recent quarter percentage point reduction in the overnight interest rate target range to between 4% and 4.25%, with potential gradual cuts to between 3.5% and 3.75% by year-end [3]. - The decision to cut rates is aimed at mitigating rising risks in the job market while maintaining a stance that can help alleviate inflation pressures [3]. Inflation and Labor Market Considerations - Collins highlights the need to balance inflation risks with labor market conditions, acknowledging the softening job market while stressing that both factors must be considered in interest rate policy decisions [2]. - There are concerns that aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation risks, which would conflict with the Federal Reserve's mandate [3]. Diverging Views Among Fed Officials - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the direction of monetary policy, with some, like Cleveland Fed chief Beth Hammack, expressing concerns about inflation and opposing further rate cuts [4]. - New Fed governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut, while Michelle Bowman is also open to significant easing to address job market risks [5]. Inflation Dynamics - Collins notes that while some inflation indicators have moderated, the impact of Trump administration tariffs on key prices remains uncertain, potentially influencing future price pressures [6]. - There is a risk that prolonged high inflation could shift public expectations towards anticipating continued inflation, which is a scenario that should be avoided [6].

https://www.fidelity.com/marketsense?ccmedia=YouTube&ccchannel=social_organic&cccampaign=Brokerage&ccdate=202509&cccreative=Market_Sense_Rate_Cuts&ccformat=video ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins is open to further interest rate cuts, anticipating a decline in price pressures next year [1][2] - Collins supported the recent interest rate cut to a range of 4% to 4.25%, aimed at balancing risks to job and employment goals while addressing inflation above the Fed's target [2][3] - Recent discussions among Fed officials indicate that while inflation risks remain due to tariffs, price increases have been less than expected, leading to considerations of additional rate cuts by the end of the year and into 2026 [3] Group 2 - Collins described her economic outlook as "relatively benign," expecting hiring to improve as companies adapt to the new tariff environment, despite inflation remaining elevated [4] - The environment is characterized as "highly uncertain," with potential for both persistent inflation and negative job market developments, although concerns about upside inflation risks have diminished [4]

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a downbeat performance last week, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.3%, the Dow edging lower by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipping by 0.7%, marking the first weekly loss in four weeks for both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 [1] Inflation Data - August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed core PCE rising at an annual rate of 2.9%, while the all-items index recorded a 2.7% year-over-year increase and a 0.3% monthly gain, reinforcing expectations for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by year-end [2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan reported a consumer sentiment index of 55.1 for September, slightly below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 55.4, indicating steady sentiment among households with larger stock holdings [3] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.8% in Q2 of 2025, an upward revision from the previously reported 3.3% growth, driven by stronger consumer spending after a 0.6% decline in Q1 [5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve enacted its first rate cut of 2025 in September, with an 87.7% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in the upcoming October meeting [6] Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 30% to 100% on various imported goods, effective October 1, with exemptions for drugmakers building manufacturing plants in the U.S. [7] Commodity Performance - Platinum prices surged, with the GraniteShares Platinum Trust and abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF both up 12%, driven by supply-demand imbalances and declining mine output [9] - Palladium prices rose by 10.6% due to supply crunches and increased industrial demand, influenced by geopolitical tensions [11] - The Sprott Lithium Miners ETF increased by 10.3% following reports of potential U.S. government intervention in Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass mine [13] - The Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF rose by 10.2%, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tensions [14]

Headline inflation and the trimmed mean measure both sat within the RBA’s 2–3% target range during the June quarter. On paper, that marks a significant achievement: consumer price inflation rose just 2.1% over the year to June 2025. Key categories such as Housing (+1.2%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+1.0%), and Health (+1.5%) were the main drivers of quarterly increases.However, the RBA has flagged concerns that the downward momentum is weakening. The monthly CPI indicator climbed 3.0% in the 12 month ...

Core Insights - Douglas Elliman stock has surged by 89% in 2023, outperforming notable AI stocks like Nvidia [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate for the first time in 2025, with expectations of two more cuts this year, which could benefit the real estate sector [1][2] Company Overview - Douglas Elliman is the fifth-largest residential real estate brokerage in the U.S., employing around 6,600 agents across 111 offices, focusing on high-end markets [4] - The company sold $36.4 billion in real estate in 2024 and is on track to exceed that with $20.1 billion in transactions in the first half of 2025 [5] Financial Performance - Douglas Elliman generated $524.7 million in total revenue in the first half of 2025, an 8% increase year-over-year, despite challenging market conditions [7] - The company reported a net loss of $28.6 million in the first half of 2025, an improvement from a $43.1 million loss in the same period last year [8] - After adjusting for one-off and non-cash expenses, Douglas Elliman achieved positive adjusted EBITDA of approximately $260,000, a significant improvement from a $14.7 million loss in the previous year [9] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of Elliman Capital, an in-house mortgage platform, aims to enhance service convenience and create a new revenue stream [6] Valuation and Market Position - Douglas Elliman has a market capitalization of $275 million, with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.26, significantly lower than its P/S ratio during the 2021 real estate boom [11][12] - Comparatively, Compass, the largest residential brokerage, has a P/S ratio of 0.68, indicating a valuation gap that may not reflect the quality of Douglas Elliman's business [13] - The recent acquisition of Redfin for $1.75 billion translates to a P/S ratio of around 1.7, suggesting a premium compared to Douglas Elliman's current valuation [15] Future Outlook - If Douglas Elliman's stock reaches its 2021 record high of $11, its P/S ratio would still be below 1, indicating potential for growth as interest rates decline and the housing market recovers [16]

Core Insights - Wayfair's business and stock have shown a significant recovery after being heavily impacted by the post-pandemic shift, with the stock price increasing by 339% since its low in April [5][6]. Company Performance - During the pandemic, Wayfair experienced a surge in e-commerce sales due to increased demand for home furnishings as consumers shifted to online shopping [2]. - After the pandemic, Wayfair faced challenges due to overinvestment and a decline in demand, resulting in revenue remaining flat and well below pandemic peaks [3]. - The company reported flat revenue of $2.7 billion in the first quarter, but adjusted earnings per share improved to $0.10 from a loss of $0.32 year-over-year [7]. - In the second quarter, Wayfair achieved a 6% revenue increase to $3.3 billion, surpassing estimates, with adjusted earnings per share rising from $0.47 to $0.87 [8]. Market Strategy - Wayfair is gaining market share and expanding into brick-and-mortar retail by opening large-scale stores, with plans for additional locations [9][10]. - The company opened a new store in the Chicago suburbs and has three more planned, including a significant 140,000 square foot store in Denver [10]. Industry Context - The home furnishings sector has faced challenges due to a sluggish housing market, which typically affects furniture purchases [12]. - Investors are optimistic that potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could stimulate a recovery in the housing market and benefit companies like Wayfair [12]. Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite recent momentum, Wayfair still has a long way to go to regain pre-pandemic growth rates, facing competition from major players like Amazon and IKEA [11]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E above 40, raising concerns about its valuation without faster revenue growth [13]. - The potential for stronger growth exists if the housing market improves, but the current rally may have limitations [13].

Group 1 - First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) experienced a significant increase of 14.3 percent week-on-week, driven by investor interest in mining companies following favorable US inflation data [1][3] - The personal consumption expenditures index rose by 0.3 percent in August, leading to an annual headline inflation rate of 2.7 percent, slightly up from 2.6 percent in July, but within economists' expectations [2] - The positive inflation figures have bolstered expectations that the US central bank may continue to lower interest rates, which is beneficial for precious metals like silver and gold [3] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates is expected to weaken the US dollar, making precious metals more affordable for foreign investors, thus enhancing the attractiveness of First Majestic Silver Corp. [3] - First Majestic Silver Corp. reached its highest 52-week price of $12.67 during the week, although there was some profit-taking towards the end [3]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's anticipated shift towards lower interest rates in September 2025 is expected to benefit small-cap companies by reducing their borrowing costs and improving equity valuations [1][4][14] - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which tracks approximately 2,000 small-cap companies, has shown strong performance, surging 7% in August 2025 and reaching an all-time high in September 2025 [4][14] - The IWM's broad sector exposure, particularly in financials, healthcare, and industrials, offers diversification benefits compared to large-cap indices that are heavily weighted in technology [3][14] Interest Rate Impact - A 90% probability of a quarter-point interest rate cut in October 2025 is indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, which is expected to disproportionately benefit smaller firms with higher growth potential [1][14] - Lower interest rates decrease the discount rate on future cash flows, enhancing the attractiveness of small-cap stocks [1] Market Dynamics - The annual reconstitution of the Russell 2000 Index, which will become semi-annual starting in 2026, allows for better responsiveness to market conditions and potential shifts towards small-cap stocks [2][14] - The IWM's performance has been narrowing the gap with the S&P 500 year-to-date, driven by macroeconomic shifts and undervaluation [4][14] Seasonal Trends - Historical data indicates that October and November are traditionally strong months for stock performance, with the Russell 2000 closing higher on November 25 than on September 30 in 13 of the past 15 years, reflecting an 87% occurrence rate [9][11][15] - Traders are encouraged to monitor seasonal patterns and consider them alongside technical and fundamental analysis for optimal market entry points [10][16] Trading Opportunities - Various trading assets are available for capitalizing on the IWM's performance, including the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF (VTWO), and futures contracts [8][15] - The IWM's median market cap of less than $1 billion helps mitigate concentration risk, making it an attractive option for traders seeking broader market exposure [3][14]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Labor Market - The dollar index (DXY00) is down by -0.29% due to speculation of weak US labor market news prompting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates [1] - The upcoming risk of a US government shutdown is negatively impacting market sentiment towards the dollar [1] - The dollar recovered slightly after August pending home sales rose by +4.0% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.4% [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The September Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey unexpectedly fell by -6.9 to -8.7, weaker than expectations of an increase to -1.0 [3] - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's hawkish comments suggest inflation will not return to the Fed's 2% objective until late 2027 or early 2028, indicating a need for a restrictive policy stance [3] - Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [3] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Performance - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by +0.29% due to dollar weakness and supportive economic news from the Eurozone [4] - The Eurozone's September economic confidence index rose unexpectedly by +0.2 to 95.5, stronger than expectations of 95.3 [5] - ECB Governing Council member Makhlouf stated that the ECB is "near the bottom" of its rate-cutting cycle, indicating a potential end to rate cuts [6] Group 4: Japanese Yen and Bank of Japan - The USD/JPY is down by -0.62%, with a weaker dollar supporting the yen [7] - An upward revision to Japan's July leading index CI to a 4-month high is bullish for the yen [7] - Hawkish comments from BOJ board member Noguchi regarding the need for a BOJ interest rate hike have also contributed to the yen's strength [7]