Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The market is closely watching President Trump's pressure on Fed Chair Powell and potential impacts on Fed independence [1][2][10] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve to predict economic conditions and future rate cuts [3] - There are differing opinions on the timing of rate cuts, with some suggesting July or September, while others believe cuts are not urgent based on current data [10][15][18] - The futures market implies a slow, steady easing bias, and the Fed is ready to respond to downward trends in growth and the labor market [16][17] - Some Fed officials are increasingly voicing support for rate cuts sooner rather than later to get ahead of potential economic lags [7][8][9] Bond Market & Yields - Concerns exist that losing Fed independence could undermine the Treasury market's status as the safest asset [2] - The yield curve could steepen if there is not a credible Fed nominee, potentially leading to higher long-term rates and a bond market "conniption fit" [12] - The long end of the yield curve is reacting to political and economic risks, including questions about Fed independence [23] - Developed market economies are engaging in deficit-driven fiscal spending, requiring bond market absorption, potentially pushing the 30-year yield between 5% and 55% [25][26] - A steeper yield curve is likely to continue, supported by long-end demand and technicals [28] Credit Market & Risk - There's a surge of reverse Samurai bonds, with Japanese companies borrowing overseas, and the U S leveraged loan market is experiencing its busiest week since the start of the year, with volume near $50 billion [30][31] - The market is seeing a rush into riskier debt, but corporations are navigating the backdrop with resilience, though dispersion exists within sectors [32][33][34] - Valuations on a spread basis are approaching all-time high single-digit percentiles, emphasizing the importance of avoiding downside risk [36] - Selectively moving down on credit risk is favored over duration risk, with opportunities in triple B-rated bonds or the high end of high-yield bonds [38][39] - While default rates are historically low, they are creeping higher, and bankruptcies are rising, partly attributed to tariffs and aggressive capital structures [44][45][46][47]

On Tuesday, July 15th, we saw the June CPI data. Headline inflation climbed at 2.7% year-over-year, up from May's 2.4% reading. But X food and energy was lower than expected at plus.2% month overmonth.This mix suggested that the headline number was at least partially driven by elevated oil prices in June. In the wake of the Israel Iran conflict, the market's reaction reflected the general lack of clarity that the data introduced. Initially, the dollar traded lower, presumably believing that the drop in core ...

Market Catalysts anchor Julie Hyman breaks down the latest market moves for July 15, 2025. Nvidia stock hits record highs again on news that the company received assurances from the Trump administration that it would be granted permission to sell its H20 chips in China. President Trump continues to pressure the Fed to cut rates. This time, after the June CPI data came in, indicating that inflation rose slightly. We look at the outlook for Fed rate cuts and what it means for the economy and investors. For mo ...

Market Overview & Strategy - The soft landing trade is currently in effect, but structural and fundamental improvements are needed for consumer discretionary and small-cap sectors to continue outperforming beyond a tactical trade [2] - A bullish narrative for the second half requires cyclical sectors, including consumer discretionary, to perform well and contribute to earnings growth beyond growth-led sectors [7] - The market is currently pricing in a lot of good news, and sentiment is somewhat stretched, requiring earnings season to deliver [12] - Risk-reward is slightly more to the downside than upside, but a bullish case depends on more factors contributing positively [15] Investment Opportunities - AI remains a favored growth theme, with opportunities potentially underpriced in many stocks [4] - Consider AI plays outside the US to complement structural growth names already prominent in the index [4] - Focus on companies globally that are improving quality and efficiency, regardless of the economic backdrop [9] - Companies that are users or adopters of AI tools, like SAP, represent investment opportunities as structural improvers not yet priced to perfection [10] Risks & Concerns - Consumer matters for a bullish second half, with potential issues including inventory pulled in ahead of expected tariffs and credit issues affecting working-class consumers [5][7] - Short-term caution is advised, echoing Jamie Dimon's warning about market complacency on tariffs [10][12] - While not the base case, a surprise Fed rate hike would negatively impact equity markets [11]

Bitcoin Hits Another All-Time High Price After Trump Renews Rate Cut Push► https://t.co/ulyf0V5Nr1 https://t.co/ulyf0V5Nr1 ...

Malaysia’s sovereign bond market looks poised to bounce back from recent selling pressure, after a rate cut this week that may fuel bets on further easing. https://t.co/O2jGq1YFDQ ...

BITCOIN WILL PUMP LIKE THIS WHEN THE FED CONFIRMS A RATE CUT! https://t.co/O5RWIepDy1 ...

The RBA is poised for its first back-to-back rate cut in six years. Read today's Australia Briefing, by @argana_carmeli for the best of Bloomberg from Down Under and around the world. https://t.co/ZnGsNqqupx ...

STOCKS ARE HITTING NEW ALL-TIME HIGH AHEAD OF THE SEPTEMBER POTENTIAL FED RATE CUTBITCOIN WILL FOLLOW! https://t.co/oBdOnFqUWw ...

AI and Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is insatiable, indicating a long runway for investment in physical infrastructure like semiconductors and cloud [1][2][3] - The expansion between Oracle and Open AI is 45 gigawatts worth of capacity, highlighting the significant energy requirements of AI development [3] - The U S is likely to lead the AI race due to its self-sufficiency and relatively cheap energy production compared to Europe and the U K [5] Energy Sector and Infrastructure - The energy sector and energy infrastructure requirements are intrinsically linked to the need for computing power, leading hyperscalers to invest in energy sources like nuclear [4] - The quest for cheaper, more efficient energy is crucial for supporting data center expansion and AI development [5] Market and Economic Factors - The jobs data is considered "Goldilocks" because of better-than-expected job numbers and a solid labor market, alongside slower wage growth [6][7] - The Federal Reserve is in no urgency to cut rates, which the market seems to prefer, valuing a strong labor market over immediate rate cuts [7] Technology Sector Performance - Technology sector exhibits strong earnings growth and benefits from productivity gains, making it an attractive area for investment [9] - Lower bond yields and interest rates, potentially resulting from future rate cuts, would particularly benefit growth areas like the technology sector [10]