Core Viewpoint - RH, formerly known as Restoration Hardware, has faced significant challenges and volatility in its stock performance due to economic conditions, interest rate changes, and aggressive expansion plans by CEO Gary Freeman [1][2][4][5]. Company Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 9% year-over-year, although earnings fell by 31% compared to the previous year, which was below market expectations [9][10]. - Free cash flow improved significantly to $83 million from a negative $96 million the previous year, indicating a healthier cash position [10]. - For the current quarter, RH expects revenue growth of 7-8%, which is below the 10% anticipated by Wall Street [11]. Market Conditions - The housing market remains weak, described as the worst in nearly 50 years, impacting consumer sentiment and demand for high-end home goods [12][15]. - The company has been affected by higher tariff expenses and increased construction costs since the pandemic, which have pressured profit margins [13][15]. Strategic Outlook - CEO Gary Freeman remains optimistic about RH's market position, claiming the company is gaining market share despite challenging conditions [12]. - The company is pursuing an aggressive expansion strategy, including a notable new location in Paris, which Freeman believes will enhance RH's brand presence [14][16]. - Analysts express mixed views on RH's long-term prospects, with some downgrading the stock due to concerns over valuation and market conditions [17][18]. Investment Considerations - RH is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward investment, heavily reliant on a potential recovery in the housing market and favorable interest rate conditions [19][20]. - The stock has shown volatility, with significant price movements following earnings reports and market sentiment shifts [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of luxury home goods retailer RH is considered high-risk, high-reward, largely dependent on the housing market's performance [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Conditions - RH's stock has experienced significant volatility, described as a "rollercoaster," due to CEO Gary Friedman's expansion efforts amid economic downturns and a challenging housing market [1][2] - The stock began to decline approximately a year ago when the Federal Reserve halted rate cuts and tariffs impacted manufacturing costs [2] - Recently, the stock has seen an uptick as investors anticipate potential rate cuts and show optimism regarding consumer spending, with a 5.67% increase noted on Friday [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Management Insights - In a recent quarterly report, RH achieved a revenue beat but missed earnings expectations and provided weak guidance [3] - CEO Gary Friedman expressed optimism in his shareholder letter, highlighting that RH is gaining market share and achieving industry-leading sales growth despite macroeconomic challenges [3] - However, Friedman acknowledged ongoing risks, including the uncertain housing market, tariffs, and rising construction costs [3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - RH is viewed as a leveraged play on a potential housing recovery, with the possibility of significant stock appreciation if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates and the housing market improves [4] - Conversely, if the housing market does not improve and the company faces ongoing tariff issues while pursuing aggressive expansion, it could lead to severe negative outcomes [5]

Markets pulling back from records uh today, but our next guest expects US stocks to outperform the rest of the world in the new year. Morgan Stanley Private Wealth's Katarina Simonetti joins us here on set. She's a firm's private wealth adviser.Katarina, great to see you. Thank you for having me on the show. >> So, you're pretty optimistic of 2026, but within the notes, I do see that you are concerned about text vulnerability.What how does what happened today, the questions around Oracle, the questions arou ...

Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley Private Wealth is cautiously optimistic about the US stock market outperforming the rest of the world in 2026 [1][2] - The focus for AI in 2026 shifts from infrastructure build-up to implementation and profitability [3] - The market consensus anticipates Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by expected tax refunds and changes in tax policy benefiting consumers and businesses [4][5] Risk Assessment - The firm identifies potential vulnerability in the tech sector and emphasizes caution despite excitement surrounding AI [2][3] - Tariffs, though less discussed, could still significantly impact the economy [6] - Overvalued tech stocks are sensitive to volatility, especially if the Federal Reserve doesn't cut rates as expected [7] Investment Strategy - The firm advocates broadening investment portfolios by taking profits from overrepresented sectors and investing in underrepresented sectors like industrials and financials [9][10] - The firm suggests considering international opportunities to diversify investments [10] - The firm recommends profit-taking as a strategy when investments perform well, without necessarily changing the overall investment strategy [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The negative EBITDA impact from Monterrey challenges in Q4 was $8 million, higher than the previously estimated $5 million, affecting EBITDA margins for the Hardware Solutions segment [5][9] - The company paid down debt aggressively during the fiscal year and repurchased approximately $3 million in stock in Q4, despite shares being perceived as undervalued [10][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hardware Solutions segment faced challenges due to increased labor and expedited freight costs, but a favorable cost roll impact helped mitigate some losses [5][9] - The company expects a $3 million drag in Q1 from Monterrey issues but anticipates this will go to zero beyond the first quarter [6][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has not observed irrational pricing behavior in the market, indicating a focus on supply chain risk management among customers [19][20] - The Custom Solutions group may face impacts from tariffs, but there is potential for insourcing demand back into the U.S. to mitigate risks [21][23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational improvements and sharing best practices across segments, particularly in the extruded solutions group [24][25] - The resegmentation is expected to yield mid- to long-term growth opportunities, with a focus on innovation and process improvements [25] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that both residential repair and remodel (R&R) and new construction markets are currently experiencing similar impacts, with R&R expected to lead any recovery [51][53] - The company anticipates stable material costs but expects continued inflationary pressure in specific areas, particularly oil-based products [35][36] Other Important Information - The company is balancing cash flow generation, stock repurchases, and debt paydown, with Q1 typically being a low cash flow period [12][56] - Incentive payouts for the executive team were lower than usual, which may positively impact cash flow in Q1 [57] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Monterrey challenges on EBITDA - The negative EBITDA impact was confirmed to be $8 million, affecting margins in the Hardware Solutions segment [5] Question: Competitive response in the market - Management indicated no irrational pricing behavior has been observed, with supply chain risks being prioritized [19] Question: Expectations for product performance in 2026 - The Custom Solutions group may see impacts from tariffs, but there is potential for insourcing demand [21][23] Question: SG&A changes and outlook - SG&A is expected to be around $73 million, reflecting higher benefit costs and inflationary measures [33][34] Question: Pricing and cost outlook for 2026 - Pricing increases are primarily driven by inflationary pressures, with a strong ability to maintain prices due to cost support [48][50] Question: Cash flow expectations for Q1 - Slightly negative free cash flow is possible in Q1, depending on December and January performance [54][56]

Costco - Costco reported quarterly earnings with revenue in line with estimates and EPS of 450, slightly below the expected 456 [2] - Sales increased by 8.2% year-over-year, with comparable same-store sales rising 5.9% in the US and 6.4% globally [2] - E-commerce sales surged over 20%, with website traffic up 24% and app traffic increasing by 48% [3] - The company faced challenges from tariffs, with about one-third of US sales coming from imports, prompting efforts to source more products domestically [4] - Legal actions have been taken against the Trump administration regarding tariffs, seeking refunds and blocking further collections [5] - Overall results did not impress investors, as the sales figures were anticipated due to monthly reports [6] RH (Restoration Hardware) - RH shares rose over 5% following better-than-expected revenue of 883.81 million, although adjusted EPS missed expectations at 171 compared to the anticipated 213 [8][9] - The company outperformed competitors like Lazy Boy and Wayfair despite challenges from tariffs [9] - The CEO acknowledged the difficult housing market but noted the brand's disruptive nature, suggesting potential support from higher-end consumers [11] Citigroup - Citigroup received an upgrade from JP Morgan Chase, which raised its price target to 124, indicating double-digit upside potential [13] - The stock has performed well year-to-date, benefiting from a solid economy, increased M&A activity, and a favorable regulatory environment [14] - JP Morgan Chase views Citigroup as undervalued compared to peers, contributing to a more bullish outlook [14]

Gary Friedman last night uh guiding lower on margins takes us to a mad dash. >> No, it was not a call that if you're looking for upside. I think that in some ways and I went over this with Ben Stos, my research director, that RH is to housing as strategy is to Bitcoin.I mean, you just they're linked. >> You mean like a leverage play. >> Yeah.And and I feel like that if you're really sure that housing's going to come back, really really sure because if you're just kind of sure that's Home Depot, if you're re ...

Mairs & Power, an investment advisor, released the third-quarter 2025 investor letter for the “Mairs & Power Balanced Fund.” A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. As we move into 2025, the market’s concentration persists, with a few dominant mega-cap stocks tied to artificial intelligence (AI) driving most of the favorable outcomes. The fund returned 6.47% in the first nine months of 2025. The fund underperformed the benchmark composite indexes (60% S&P 500 Total Return Index and 40% Bloomberg U.S. G ...

Group 1 - President Trump is seeking to block state laws on AI and is advocating for a national regulatory framework [1] - The Federal Reserve has reappointed 11 of the 12 regional presidents for new 5-year terms, with Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bastik announcing retirement [1][2] - Costco's earnings and revenue exceeded estimates, with US comparable sales increasing by 5.9% and digital sales rising over 20% year-over-year [2] Group 2 - NASCAR has settled an antitrust lawsuit, granting permanent charters to all teams involved, although the terms of the settlement were not disclosed [3] - Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX is planning to go public in 2026, responding to reports of an $800 billion valuation, which he stated was inaccurate [4] - Speculation around SpaceX's IPO suggests potential valuations could reach as high as $1.5 trillion, with Musk owning over 40% of the company [5]

This story was originally published on C-Store Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily C-Store Dive newsletter. 3 Big Numbers is a weekly column that looks at a few key details from around the c-store industry. Tariffs, lingering inflation concerns and overall economic and geopolitical uncertainty battered retailers this year. For instance, 79% of consumers in a recent survey by Upside said they’ve changed their shopping habits this year due to tariffs. And while c-stores ...