Market Performance & Economic Indicators - The market rallied due to a better-than-expected jobs report [2] - The S&P and NASDAQ reached record highs [2] - The report suggests the economy is still performing well [1] Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, the slowest this year [3] - Less than half of the industries showed job growth [3] - The cyclical part of the economy's labor market is slowing [3] - Job prospects for college graduates worsened [6] Monetary Policy Implications - A July rate cut is unlikely [4] - September rate cut is questionable [4] Fiscal Policy & Social Safety Net - A fiscal package is expected to pass, potentially removing social safety net benefits from lower-income households [7] - Medicaid working requirements may be implemented after the midterm elections [8] - SNAP food assistance could be reduced this year [9] Economic Outlook - A significantly slower economy is anticipated in the second half of the year [9] - Consumer spending is crucial for company revenues and stock market performance [5]

Bitcoin Seesaws as Hot Jobs Report Extinguishes Rate Cut Hopes► https://t.co/9Dgh91gheP https://t.co/9Dgh91gheP ...

- Ignore the tariffs for a second. Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hope that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs and we didn't expect to by now.We've always said that the timing, amount, and persistence of the inflation would be highly uncertain, and it's certainly improved that. So, we're watching, we expect to see, over the summer, some readings, higher readings, but we're prepared to learn that it can be higher or lower or later or sooner than we'd ex ...

"I wouldn't take any meeting off the table"Jerome Powell won't be drawn on whether the Fed is likely to cut rates when it meets in July, as he joins other central bankers at Sintra https://t.co/FbZSTDqvWU https://t.co/OXZDTqTu16 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for an earlier cut in July if unemployment rises sharply [6][11][40]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data over the summer months to determine the timing of potential rate cuts, with a consensus forming around the likelihood of cuts resuming in September [5][8]. - Consumer spending has shown significant slowdown, particularly in real services spending, which has implications for economic growth and inflation [10][12][19]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in June, with a possibility of reaching 4.5% if job market conditions worsen, which could prompt earlier rate cuts [11][23][40]. Economic Indicators - Services inflation has remained subdued, with core PCE inflation at 0.179% month-over-month, indicating a cooling inflation environment [9][30]. - Real personal spending has stagnated, with a notable decline in both goods and services spending observed in recent months [10][30]. - The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with new home sales declining by 13.7% month-over-month in May, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [15][18][30]. Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims have shown a slight decline, but continuing claims are rising, suggesting a loosening labor market [24][67]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June, indicating growing concerns among consumers regarding the labor market and economic conditions [19][30]. - Average hourly earnings are expected to slow to 0.2% month-over-month, reflecting a weakening labor demand environment [38][39]. Manufacturing and Trade - ISM Manufacturing is expected to remain in contraction, while ISM Services is projected to rebound slightly, indicating modest growth in services activity [60][63]. - The trade balance is anticipated to widen to -$71.7 billion, driven by a drop in exports, which could weigh on GDP growth [57][58].

Uh Ed, we now have a market that uh you know is has kind of completed whatever uh we're going to call what happened in the spring, that severe correction. In fact, one of the fastest rebounds from a 15% plus pullback in the S&P 500 we've seen. What does that tell us.And I guess what is the overall market behavior suggest to you. Yeah, Mike, it certainly has been risk on since the the April lows. We went through a retesting period for a couple of weeks, but then once we got into late April, it's been very mu ...

Huge move this week in rate cut odds 📈3 cuts now up to 45% by end of year (up from 27%)Now 90% chance of anywhere from 2-4 cutsNo change at just 0.6% chance https://t.co/9E6dokXoqJ ...

Let's bring in Max Kentner, HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist to talk about this close. Max, you know, I sit here the S&P 500 at 6142. It's a couple of points from the closing high from February 19th.Uh does it make sense that we're back here. Yeah. Um I think it does.It absolutely does because when we look at the earnings picture, that actually uh does really still look resoundingly good. And when we look particularly at uh forward earnings, when we look at Q2 earnings expectation, it is actually bizarre ...

S&P as we've noted, is less than 1% from an all time high. Joining us now Carol Schleiff, BMO, BMO Private Wealth Chief Market Strategist the. Carol, it's good to see you the way the way that the journal I like summarized what Powell told lawmakers yesterday.It's kind of indicative of I think what we're talking about, he said, yeah, recent economic data would have likely justified some cuts, good cuts, I think because of inflation, not necessarily for because of bad reasons for weakness. However, higher tar ...

Walk on the street. I'm Steve Leeman. The big Fed news of the morning, of course, is Fed Chair Powell in his testimony before Congress pushing back against the possibility of a July rate cut from two of his committee members.More on that in just a second. But first, we have new comments from Cleveland President Beth Hammock adding to the chair's view that rates should remain on hold. She says she does not see economic weakening that would merit rate cuts.The risk to maintaining current policy, she says, app ...