🇺🇸 FED WALLER SAID ON CNBC- TARIFFS AREN'T GOING TO CAUSE LONG-RUN INFLATION- I DON’T SEE RECESSION, BUT A SLOWER GROWTH- TARRIF INFLATION WONT BE PERMANENT- SHOULD CUT RATES AT NEXT MEETINGBULLISH FOR THE MARKETS 🚀 ...

Switzerland’s manufacturing sector is mired in a recession that’s likely to get worse because of the 39% tariffs the US unexpectedly imposed on the country https://t.co/toVtaazuRc ...

Market Reactions to Fed Commentary - The market reacted positively to Powell's comments, indicating a shift towards an easing stance by the Fed, which surprised many investors [4][6][10] - There is a presupposition in the market that multiple rate cuts will occur, with discussions around three to four cuts anticipated by 2025 [10][11] Labor Market Insights - Powell's revision of job growth figures revealed a significant underestimation, with actual growth at 35,000 jobs per month instead of the previously thought 150,000 [5][9] - The labor market's rapid weakening could lead to a sharp rise in unemployment, influencing the Fed's decision-making [9][31] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is responding to anticipated rate cuts, with declining yields and rising bond prices, particularly in the short end of the yield curve [8][11] - A rally in the benchmark ten-year treasury indicates market expectations of economic slowdown [12][13] Tariff Implications - Tariffs are being viewed as a tax on corporations, affecting profit margins and potentially leading to layoffs if costs cannot be passed to consumers [14][15][19] - Consumer spending is slowing, with a notable shift towards discount retailers as consumers trade down due to rising costs [16][17] Housing Market Trends - The housing market is shifting to a buyer's market, with rising FHA delinquencies and foreclosures indicating distress [34][35] - The impact of student loan repayments on household credit is complicating the housing market dynamics [35][23] US Dollar Outlook - The US dollar is experiencing weakness as the market prices in a full easing cycle from the Fed, but global economic conditions may influence its recovery [38][40] - A crowded short position on the dollar could lead to a contrarian rebound as investors reassess the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory [40]

Let's talk about Jackson Hole and what we can expect from Jay Powell. So, the Fed really has to decide which of its mandates to emphasize right now. So, Pal's going to have to juggle this and what are we going to get from him.Are we going to get a hawkish message like we saw at his last press conference where he emphasized that the labor market was still in good shape. It's still stable, still healthy, and inflation is really where they're concerned about. Are you going to get something more dovish where he ...

Economic Indicators - San Francisco Fed researchers introduced a new recession warning gauge [1] - The gauge is intended to help economists assess the likelihood of a US economic downturn [1]

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]

Japan’s economy expanded faster than expected last quarter, avoiding a recession and giving embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba some rare good news as he fends off calls to resign https://t.co/yhwVVMmkUN ...

Economic Outlook - Japan's economy likely avoided recession with modest growth in Q2 [1] - Domestic demand, led by capital spending, offset the negative impact of US tariffs [1] Trade & Tariffs - US tariffs created a drag on Japan's economic growth [1]

Market Overview - S&P 500 stocks were relatively expensive, except for the tech sector [1] - The tech sector took the biggest hit during tariff announcements in April [2] - The market has been resilient despite uncertainty around the impact of tariffs [4] Tech Sector Analysis - Semiconductor stocks are more volatile but can drive significant gains for the tech sector [1] - The tech sector is currently cheaper than it was before the tariff announcements [2] - The tech sector might be in good shape for a rebound [4] Economic Indicators - Soft data (sentiment-based measures) showed recession worries in April [3] - Company earnings did not slow down, leading to improved soft data [3]

Economic Performance - Russia's economy experienced growth last quarter, avoiding a recession [1] Market Dynamics - The growth occurred despite pressure from very high interest rates [1]