My invalidation on bullishness is weekly closes below $98k.Technically the monthly structure goes all the way down to $74k but ain’t no way I’m holding all the way down there.Lose $100k essentially and we reevaluate. ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing all-time highs, described as an "unendable beast" that continues to rise despite concerns about buying at high levels [2][3] - There is a sentiment of waiting for an intermediate pullback before making significant trades [3] Company Analysis: Super Micro (SMCI) - Super Micro has seen a performance increase of over 40% in the last six months, but recently lowered its guidance for the first quarter, causing concern among investors [5] - The strategy involves buying implied volatility leading up to earnings on January 14 and selling before the earnings announcement [6] - Technical analysis indicates a bullish setup with the stock making higher highs and higher lows, currently in a cup and handle pattern [9][10] - Key resistance is at $62.50, with support around the 200-day moving average at approximately $42-$43 [12][13] Company Analysis: Astera Labs - Astera Labs is down about 0.5% following a downgrade from Barclays to equal weight, with a price target unchanged [14] - The focus is on a call spread to the upside going into earnings on January 14, targeting a breakout above the 50-day simple moving average [15] - The stock is currently trading around $169, approximately 12.5% below the $190 level where bullish options activity has been noted [21] Company Analysis: Reddit - Reddit's earnings are expected to be significant, with a call calendar strategy being employed due to the disparity in implied volatility [22][23] - Historical performance shows that Reddit's stock has risen in four out of six earnings reports since its IPO [24] - Technical analysis reveals an expanding megaphone pattern, with potential resistance around the $250 mark and support near the 200-day moving average [27][30]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding technical analysis as a tool for investors, highlighting that price movements reflect supply and demand dynamics rather than underlying causes [17][18] - It discusses the psychological aspects of market behavior, noting that investor emotions can lead to irrational decision-making, which is a fundamental principle of technical analysis [17][21] - The report outlines various charting techniques and patterns that can be utilized to predict market movements, including trend lines, channels, and specific chart patterns like head and shoulders, triangles, and saucers [20][64][95] Summary by Sections Section I: Introduction - The introduction discusses the influence of behavioral finance on investor psychology and the role of technical analysis in capturing market trends [17][21] Section II: The Basics - This section covers the construction of different types of charts, including bar, candlestick, and line charts, and explains their significance in technical analysis [29][30] - It also introduces point and figure charts and market profile techniques, emphasizing their utility in identifying price movements and trends [31][35] Section III: Trend Lines and Channels - The report explains how to identify and draw trend lines, noting that trends can indicate support and resistance levels [44][48] - It discusses the significance of volume in confirming trends and the implications of trend line breaks [48][49] Section IV: Chart Patterns - This section categorizes chart patterns into reversal and continuation patterns, detailing how to identify and interpret them for trading decisions [64][95] - Specific patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops/bottoms, and triangles are described, along with their expected outcomes and volume behavior [74][95]

Technical Analysis Patterns - Spotting patterns is not guessing, but reading emotion in price form [1] - Doji indicates indecision, the market catching its breath [2] - Hammer suggests a possible rebound after a drop [2] - Shooting star indicates momentum fading [2] - Engulfing pattern suggests a full reversal in progress [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting thorough due diligence before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading activities [1] Group 1 - The content includes general news, personal analysis, and opinions intended for educational and research purposes [1] - It highlights that the information provided does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1] - The article warns that the information may not be accurate or provided in real-time, and prices may be sourced from market makers rather than exchanges [1] Group 2 - The website discusses complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1] - It encourages users to perform their own research and understand the risks involved before investing in any financial instruments [1] - The article mentions that FX Empire does not endorse any third-party services and is not liable for any losses incurred from using the information provided [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Core Viewpoint - Aptos (APT) has shown little price movement, trading around $3.50, with a potential breakout above $3.63 targeting $3.75 for a 7% upside, while underperforming the broader crypto market [1][4]. Price Movement and Technical Analysis - APT price fluctuated within a $0.16 range, representing 4.6% of current levels, advancing from session lows near $3.45 [2]. - Trading volume spiked to 2.48 million shares on October 26, a 68% increase over the 24-hour average of 1.47 million, but quickly faded as the price hit resistance at $3.63 [2]. - The $3.60-$3.63 zone has been established as a critical technical barrier due to multiple failed breakout attempts [2][6]. - Primary support is at $3.48-$3.485, successfully defended during recent pullbacks, while resistance remains firm at $3.60-$3.63 [6]. - A V-bottom formation in a 60-minute timeframe indicates a short-term bullish structure, with higher lows from $3.45 to $3.48 confirming near-term uptrend momentum [6]. Market Sentiment - Modest gains coupled with low trading volume suggest retail-driven activity rather than significant institutional flows, indicating traders are in a wait-and-see mode [3][6]. - The 24-hour volume averaged 7.9% above the 7-day moving average but did not meet the 5% institutional engagement threshold, further supporting the retail-driven flow narrative [6].

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has shown a mixed technical picture throughout October but has shifted to a bullish trend with signals culminating in a new all-time high reached last Friday [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The technical indicators for the S&P 500 have improved, suggesting a positive market sentiment [1] - The recent break to new all-time highs indicates strong momentum in the market [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Andrew McElroy serves as Chief Analyst at Matrixtrade and has developed a proprietary trading system over 15 years, incorporating various analytical methods such as fractals and Elliott Wave [2] - The 'Daily Edge' produced by Andrew provides actionable ideas and insights into market trends across different asset classes [2]