证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 18 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天低开高走，创业板指领涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3516.83 | 0.37% | 13.05 | | | 深证成指 | 10873.62 | 1.43% | 152.81 | | | 沪深 300 | 4034.49 | 0.68% | 27.29 | | | 创业板 | 2269.33 | 1.75% | 39.13 | | | 科创 50 | 1005.65 | 0.80% | 8.02 | | | 北证 50 | 1428.11 | 0.86% | 12.13 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.74% ...

截至7月17日收盘，水泥概念下跌0.06%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，三和管桩、中材国际、 华新水泥等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有15只，涨幅居前的有西藏天路、尖峰集团、和泰机电等，分别上涨 7.46%、1.58%、1.28%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 概念 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 兵装重组概念 | 4.22 | 房屋检测 | -0.18 | | 同花顺果指数 | 3.37 | 黄金概念 | -0.13 | | 共封装光学(CPO) | 3.34 | 举牌 | -0.12 | | PCB概念 | 3.07 | 水泥概念 | -0.06 | | AI手机 | 3.01 | 固废处理 | -0.03 | | AI PC | 3.01 | 新型城镇化 | -0.03 | | 重组蛋白 | 2.92 | ST板块 | -0.01 | | 海南自贸区 | 2.76 | 猪肉 | 0.00 | | 创新药 | 2.68 | 大豆 | 0.01 | | CRO概念 | 2.61 | 装配式建筑 | 0.05 | 资金面上看，今日 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Cement Industry Key Points on Industry Dynamics - The cement industry is experiencing a phase of "anti-involution," where leading companies have a competitive advantage. Despite a profit bottoming out in Q1 2024, the industry did not face overall losses, indicating strong risk resilience among leading firms like Conch Cement, whose gross profit per ton is comparable to that of Q3 2015 [1][3]. - Since Q3 2024, cement prices have increased due to enhanced staggered production and stricter capacity reduction policies, leading to multiple price hikes. The performance in H1 2025 is expected to be positive, with mid-year reports indicating an overall improvement in the sector [1][3]. - Market expectations for cement demand remain optimistic, driven by anticipated policy announcements in July and infrastructure investments. However, demand is expected to remain under pressure in the coming years, necessitating a collaborative supply-side approach to manage demand fluctuations [1][4][5]. Financial Projections and Market Valuation - Conch Cement's future balanced profit is projected to be between 10 billion to 15 billion CNY, with an estimated performance range for this year between 9 billion to 10 billion CNY, corresponding to a market capitalization range of 110 billion to 140 billion CNY, indicating that the current market valuation is relatively low [1][7]. - The Hong Kong stock market has reacted more positively to the anti-involution measures and interim performance compared to the A-share market, suggesting that investors in Hong Kong place greater emphasis on supply-side logic [1][8]. Production and Pricing Trends - Domestic cement production is expected to decline by approximately 4% year-on-year in H1 2025, with operating rates dropping to the lowest levels since 2020. Cement prices have fallen below last year's lows, indicating significant price pressure [1][19]. - The industry’s operating rate has fallen below 40%, marking the lowest level since 2020, with prices dropping from 400 CNY per ton to around 350 CNY since April 2025, indicating ongoing price pressures [1][19]. Company-Specific Insights: Huaxin Cement Growth and Market Position - Huaxin Cement has rapidly expanded its overseas business, with profits from international operations exceeding 40%. The company has significantly increased its production capacity in Africa through acquisitions, enhancing its pricing and gross profit per ton [2][22]. - The company has established a strong market presence in 13 countries, primarily in Africa, which helps mitigate risks associated with regional competition and currency fluctuations [23]. Competitive Advantages - Huaxin Cement benefits from a mixed ownership structure, allowing it to leverage both foreign and state-owned resources, particularly in overseas markets [23]. - The company has adopted a strategy of acquiring existing production capacities rather than building new ones, which accelerates market entry and enhances profitability through technological upgrades [23]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with profits projected to increase by approximately 20% in 2026, driven by ongoing expansion in Nigeria and other markets [27][28]. - Huaxin Cement's focus on integrating its supply chain and enhancing operational efficiency positions it favorably in the current market environment, making it a recommended investment opportunity [28]. Conclusion - The cement industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by price pressures and fluctuating demand, with leading companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement demonstrating resilience and growth potential. The focus on supply-side reforms and strategic expansions, particularly in overseas markets, will be critical for sustaining profitability and market position in the coming years [1][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaxin Cement is "Buy-A" with a target price of 15.2 CNY, while the current stock price is 13.25 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.096 to 1.132 billion CNY in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 55% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is projected to see a net profit of 862 to 898 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.84% to 62.44% [1]. - Despite a decline in domestic cement demand, the company is likely to benefit from increased overseas sales and improved profitability due to falling coal prices [2][3]. - The China Cement Association's initiatives to optimize supply-side conditions are expected to support price and profitability recovery in the cement industry [3][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for H1 2025, with a rise of approximately 365 to 402 million CNY compared to the previous year [1]. - The expected net profit for Q2 2025 is between 862 to 898 million CNY, marking a substantial year-on-year growth [1]. Market Conditions - From January to May 2025, national cement production decreased by 4% year-on-year, with regional variations in production across key areas [2]. - Despite a general decline in domestic demand, cement prices in key sales regions remained high, contributing to improved profitability for the company [2]. Overseas Expansion - The company has made significant strides in international markets, with expected increases in overseas cement sales and profitability due to recent technological upgrades and new production capacities in South Africa, Nigeria, and Brazil [3][9]. - The company is set to benefit from a new cement production line in Mozambique, which will contribute to output in 2025 [3]. Industry Outlook - The cement industry is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at curbing excessive production and low-price competition, which is expected to gradually improve the supply-demand balance and support price recovery [8][9]. - The company's integrated strategy and high-margin aggregate business are anticipated to enhance overall performance in the coming years [9].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed up 0.2% after opening higher and reaching a peak of 24555 points before declining [1] - The market saw a total trading volume of 144 billion HKD, with notable strength in sectors such as Apple-related stocks, biomedicine, and gaming software [1] - Individual stocks like Yunfeng Financial surged over 18%, Tencent Music rose more than 5%, and Bilibili increased nearly 5% [1] Group 2 - Conversely, sectors such as electric equipment, building materials, and cryptocurrency stocks experienced a pullback, while military and real estate stocks declined again [1] - Companies like Xinyi Solar and Xinyi Glass both fell over 4%, and Longfor Group dropped more than 3% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry [6][27]. Core Insights - The cement industry is expected to see significant improvement in performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, driven by anti-involution measures and a focus on high-quality development [1][4]. - The historical success of supply-side reforms has led to a reduction in new cement production lines, alleviating supply-demand imbalances, but recent market demand declines have intensified competition [2][3]. - The regulatory framework for anti-involution policies is being strengthened, with measures to address overproduction expected to be a key focus in the second half of 2025 [3][4]. - Companies with integrated operations and global expansion strategies are positioned for long-term growth, with specific recommendations for Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cement industry has experienced a significant drop in average prices, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% as of July 11, 2025, leading to a renewed call for anti-involution measures [2][3]. Performance Forecasts - Five cement companies have reported impressive performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with some expecting net profit increases of over 100% year-on-year [4][8]. Policy Developments - Recent policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the inclusion of the cement industry in carbon emissions trading are expected to enhance the regulatory framework for managing overproduction [3][4]. Company Recommendations - The report highlights Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material as key investment opportunities due to their competitive advantages in scale, cost, and energy efficiency [1][4][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Tianshan Co. (000877) is expected to significantly reduce its losses in the first half of 2025, with a projected net loss of 800 million to 1 billion yuan, compared to the same period last year [1] - Tianshan Co. attributes this improvement to meticulous management, cost control, and a dual focus on price recovery and cost optimization, resulting in a year-on-year increase in cement sales prices and a decrease in sales costs [1] - National statistics indicate that from January to May 2025, the total cement production in the country was 659 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, with the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2 - The cement industry is experiencing a narrowing of demand decline, with prices showing a trend of high initially and low later, leading to improved industry efficiency [1] - The China Cement Association has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the cement industry, emphasizing the importance of capacity replacement policies for structural optimization and transformation [1] - The industry is expected to see a normalization of market competition and a return of cement prices to reasonable levels, which will enhance sales prices and gross margins for cement products [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index's increase narrowed to within 1%, previously reaching a high of 1.27% [1] - Sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, shipbuilding, brokerage, diversified finance, CRO, and software development showed strong performance [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 1.14 trillion, an increase of about 140 billion compared to the previous day [1] Group 2 - Approximately 2,800 stocks rose while 2,300 stocks declined, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1] - There was a net outflow of approximately 4.4 billion from major funds [1]

沪深300早盘涨幅扩大至1%，上证指数现涨0.92%；船舶制造、稀土永磁、大金融、软件开发、数字货 币等概念涨幅居前；工程咨询、房屋检测、水泥建材等房地产相关概念日内走低；全市约2500股上涨， 2600股下跌，主力资金净流出约90亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The cement sector saw an increase of 1.75%, ranking 8th among concept sectors, with 32 stocks rising, including Sifang New Material and Sichuan Shuangma hitting the daily limit [1] - Notable gainers in the cement sector included Tibet Tianlu, Zhongtai Chemical, and Jinyu Group, which rose by 3.77%, 3.44%, and 2.53% respectively [1] - The sector experienced a net inflow of 233 million yuan, with 16 stocks receiving net inflows, and 8 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow [2] Group 2 - The top net inflow stock was Sichuan Shuangma, with a net inflow of 113 million yuan, followed by China Energy Construction, Conch Cement, and Tibet Tianlu with net inflows of 93.47 million yuan, 66.49 million yuan, and 32.38 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The net inflow ratio for Sifang New Material, Sichuan Shuangma, and Ordos was 70.30%, 14.96%, and 14.27% respectively [3] - The trading volume and turnover rates for key stocks in the cement sector were highlighted, with Sichuan Shuangma showing a trading increase of 9.98% and a turnover rate of 5.00% [3][4]