And more now on what to expect in this new month and quarter with strateg head of technical and macro research Chris Veron. Good to see you. >> Great to be here.>> How do you feel uh heading into this last stretch of the year. >> Well, I think this dichconomy between what some of the data says, what the bond market looks like, and how stocks react is really the key setup as we move into the final months of the year. Um going back to what Mark was saying, I mean, I am very much in the same camp that the Fed ...

Market Outlook - The current economic environment shows a dichotomy between data, bond market conditions, and stock market reactions as the year ends [2][3] - The two-year yield is significantly lower than the Fed funds rate, indicating potential risks for the Fed if it does not adjust its policy [3] Credit Market Conditions - Public credit conditions remain stable, with double B and triple C spreads indicating no significant deterioration [5] - Concerns are emerging in private credit, suggesting a need for increased attention to potential vulnerabilities [6] Sector Performance - Healthcare has shown some positive movement recently, but overall trends in defensive sectors like staples remain weak [8][9] - Biotech has been improving, while pharma and equipment sectors are still underperforming [9][10] Market Sentiment and Seasonality - Earnings are expected to remain strong, and the market anticipates Fed rate cuts, making it challenging to adopt a negative outlook [10][12] - Historical seasonality suggests that a down market in Q4 could lead to struggles in the following year, making Q4 performance a critical indicator [12] Global Market Dynamics - The global market shows involvement from various regions, including Japan, China, and Europe, indicating that the current market strength is not solely driven by a few stocks [14][15]

Fed Policy - US Treasury market traders are seeking insights on the Federal Reserve's policy direction from upcoming speeches by US central bank officials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024, leading to discussions and speculation about future rate cuts in 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has made a significant decision to cut rates, marking a notable shift in monetary policy [2]. - There is a high expectation for further rate cuts in 2025, creating uncertainty in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Conditions - The current market environment is described as both opportunistic and dangerous, with a focus on managing risk rather than following crowd behavior [5][6]. - A significant concentration of wealth in a few stocks is noted, with nearly $4 out of every $10 in an S&P 500 Index ETF invested in just 10 stocks, raising concerns about market stability [6]. - The job market's weakness is a primary concern for the Federal Reserve, which could impact 401k inflows and overall market dynamics [6]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Concerns - Uncertainty surrounding trade policy, particularly tariff issues, is seen as a barrier to confident investment decisions [6]. - There are lingering concerns about the reliability of non-U.S. buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, which have historically supported U.S. debt [6].

Market Overview - The current market environment is favorable for holding stocks, with equities at record highs and a bullish outlook on large-cap technology investments [1][2] - Moderating inflation, an accommodating Federal Reserve, and strong Q2 GDP and earnings are contributing to a positive investment climate [2] Investment Strategy - Clients are fully invested with an overweight in large-cap technology, while also holding municipal bonds for diversification [2][3] - There is a need to periodically rebalance portfolios by selling stocks to reallocate into bonds as stock holdings grow [3] Sector Focus - Technology remains a long-term focus, with specific emphasis on companies like Oracle and independent power producers that support data center growth [4][5] - The electrification of the country and the demand for utilities are critical, with companies like Vistra and NRG generating strong operating cash flows [6][7] Company Insights - IBM is highlighted as a key player in AI infrastructure, with 35% of its revenue being recurring and a total revenue of $64 billion [9] - Despite a recent 20% decline in stock price, IBM is considered a sleeper investment due to its role in data center growth [10] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation or geopolitical trade tensions, but current earnings growth and cash flow remain strong [12][14]

Market Focus - Bond and currency traders are closely monitoring the August jobs report [1] - The report is expected to influence perceptions of Federal Reserve policy [1] - The report is expected to determine the short-term direction of interest rates [1]

Market Sentiment and Economic Data - The market has been surprisingly resilient, with a 12% increase during the summer, marking the third strongest summer in a long time [1] - Composite economic data suggests weakening employment conditions, as indicated by the Beige Book, ISM, ADP, and JOLTS reports [2] - Market's reaction is heavily influenced by revisions to economic data [4] - Revisions to employment numbers are common, with initial surveys typically having a lower response rate (around 60%) compared to later revisions (90-95%) [6] Employment Data Analysis - Consensus for the upcoming jobs number is 75,000, and unless the number is significantly outside the range of 50,000 to 150,000, it may not be a major market-moving event [9] - A jobs number above 150,000 could introduce uncertainty about potential Fed rate cuts in October and December [12] - Negative revisions to May and June numbers could potentially accelerate the timeline for Fed rate cuts [5] Federal Reserve (Fed) Policy - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, with the expectation that the die has been cast for the upcoming meeting [12][14] - Inflation numbers next week will be crucial, as they are expected to show price increases flowing through to the data, potentially complicating the Fed's job [10] - The market is learning not to overreact to policy initiatives, as several anticipated negative impacts (tariffs, deportations, OBB passage) have not materialized [15][16]

Market Trend - Clearer regulations and Fed policy direction are expected to drive Bitcoin higher [1] - The rally is expected to continue [1]

Market Trends & Key Events - Market Catalysts discusses the latest market moves on August 8, 2025 [1] - The program analyzes President Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran as Fed governor [1] - The report considers the implications of Miran's confirmation for rate cuts and Fed policy [1] Company Performance - SoundHound AI's stock is soaring after Q2 results exceeded Wall Street's estimates [1] - SoundHound AI's CEO discusses the company's strong Q2 performance [1]

Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets [1] - He has worked as a financial journalist and covered various futures markets in the U.S. [1] - Jim is the proprietor of an analytical, educational, and trading advisory service [2] Group 2 - He has held positions as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim has also been a consultant for the "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service [2] - He was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] Group 3 - Jim provides daily market roundups and technical analysis on Kitco.com [3]