Core Viewpoint - Circle (CRCL), the issuer of USD Coin (USDC), is well positioned to benefit from increasing demand for regulated stablecoins despite potential U.S. interest rate cuts, according to Bernstein analysts [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth - USDC's market share is projected to increase from 29% today to 33% by the end of 2027 [2]. - Circle is expected to generate $668 million in EBITDA even if rates fall below 2%, indicating a robust 33% compound annual growth rate from 2024 through 2027 [3]. - Circle's compliance-first strategy, deep liquidity network, and multi-chain integrations are identified as key structural advantages [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Impact of Interest Rates - Every 25-basis-point rate cut could reduce Circle's 2027 revenue by approximately 9% and EBITDA by 11% [3]. - Despite potential revenue compression from lower interest rates, expanding stablecoin adoption and strong operating leverage are expected to support Circle's growth [1]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The passage of the GENIUS Act introduced a federal framework for "payment stablecoins," favoring U.S.-based companies and reinforcing Circle's status as the largest regulated stablecoin globally [6][7]. - Circle's full backing by cash and U.S. Treasurys, along with daily reserve disclosures and independent attestations, enhances its competitive position [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Circle's market cap has reportedly reached about half of the total USDC in circulation, leading to speculation that it could act as a "U.S. dollar treasury company" [9]. - USDC operates across 28 blockchains and has partnerships with major exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and OKX, contributing to its significant transaction volume [5].

Core Viewpoint - Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields are expected to decline due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, while long-term yields remain stable due to persistent inflation and fiscal concerns [1][4]. Group 1: Treasury Yields and Federal Reserve Expectations - A Reuters poll indicates that short-dated Treasury yields will decrease as the market anticipates rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1]. - The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is projected to trade around 4.10% in three to six months and rise to 4.17% in a year [4]. - Analysts express skepticism about the current pricing of rate cuts, suggesting that the Fed may only cut rates once more this year, contrary to market expectations of two cuts [6]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Fiscal Concerns - High long-term yields pose a risk to the U.S. fiscal position, with estimates suggesting that tax and spending reforms could increase the national debt by over $3 trillion in the next decade [2]. - Current economic growth and inflation rates above the Fed's 2% target indicate that monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive [3]. - The ongoing government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed policy decisions, increasing the risk of missteps [4]. Group 3: Yield Curve Dynamics - The 2-year Treasury yield is expected to remain around its current level of 3.47% at year-end, with a gradual decline to 3.35% in a year [7]. - This scenario would lead to a steepening of the yield curve, with the spread between 10- and 2-year yields projected to increase from approximately 50 basis points to 82 basis points in a year [7].

Market Overview - The Russell 2000 Index increased by 12.4% in Q3 2025, achieving a new all-time high after nearly three years, driven by improved earnings revisions, optimism around Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a strong appetite for speculative growth stocks [2] - Retail investors played a significant role in this rally, focusing on a narrow set of stocks, which led to both breadth and concentration in returns [2] - Despite the gains, volatility remained low, and valuations were stretched, creating a sense of complacency amid ongoing policy and macroeconomic risks [3] Portfolio Performance - The ClearBridge Small Cap Strategy had positive absolute performance but slightly underperformed the benchmark [4] - The materials sector was a key contributor, with MP Materials benefiting from new supply agreements with the U.S. Department of Defense and government support for rare earth production [5] - Information technology also performed well, with TeraWulf gaining from a rebound in cryptocurrency prices and a significant investment from Google [6] Sector Performance - Communication services was the leading detractor, with companies like Criteo and Gambling.com facing sector-specific challenges despite positive earnings [7] - Consumer discretionary also showed weakness, particularly with Murphy USA reporting lower-than-expected earnings due to various operational challenges [8] Portfolio Positioning - New positions were initiated in Quaker Houghton and Avidity Biosciences, with the former expected to improve margins and returns, and the latter having a promising pipeline for RNA-based therapeutics [9][10] - The position in Vivid Seats was exited due to increasing competitive pressures in the secondary ticketing market [11] Outlook - The environment remains challenging for active small cap investors, with a focus on speculative stocks making it difficult for fundamentally driven strategies to perform [13] - However, there are signs of improvement in earnings revisions and a potential shift back towards companies with sustainable business models [14] - The strategy emphasizes high-quality businesses and strong balance sheets, with a belief that patience and discipline will ultimately yield value [15] Portfolio Highlights - The ClearBridge Small Cap Strategy underperformed the Russell 2000 Index, with gains in 10 of 11 sectors, while stock selection in communication services and consumer discretionary weighed on performance [16][17] - Key contributors included MP Materials and TeraWulf, while Murphy USA and Gambling.com were among the largest detractors [18] - New positions were also established in various sectors, including healthcare and consumer staples, while exiting positions in several companies across different sectors [19]

Core Insights - Silver has significantly outperformed gold in 2023, with a 70% increase compared to gold's 50% rise [1][7] - Both metals reached record prices, with silver hitting $51.38 per ounce and gold around $4,060 per ounce, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and safe-haven demand [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in precious metals was exacerbated by President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on imports from China, which intensified market volatility [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts caution that while silver may continue to gain in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, it faces more volatility and downside risk compared to gold [2][3] Historical Context - Historically, silver and gold prices have moved together, but this relationship has changed due to increased central-bank buying of gold, which has pushed its price higher [4] - Silver's price is more cyclical due to its industrial applications, making it less reliable as a hedge compared to gold [4] Institutional Perspective - Silver lacks the institutional support that gold has, as it is not recognized under IMF reserve frameworks and has minimal presence in central bank portfolios [5] - Central banks do not seek cheaper substitutes for gold; they manage value rather than weight, holding fewer ounces to maintain dollar value [6] Practical Considerations - Gold's physical characteristics make it a more practical reserve asset, being ten times scarcer than silver, 80 times more valuable per ounce, and twice as dense [6] - The smaller market size and absence of a central-bank safety net contribute to silver's higher volatility compared to gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - Green Brick Partners has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 17% week to date, influenced by an analyst downgrade from buy to hold [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Downgrade - Alex Rygiel of Texas Capital Securities downgraded Green Brick's recommendation from buy to hold, setting a price target of $71 per share [2]. - The downgrade was based on revised estimates for Green Brick's performance in 2025 and concerns over its geographic mix, particularly in weaker markets in Texas [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The bearish outlook from the analyst comes despite expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which typically encourage construction activity by lowering borrowing costs [3]. - Green Brick Partners is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on October 29, which will provide further insights into the company's performance [4].

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new all-time highs, continuing Wall Street's rally after a brief pause, with sentiment improving following the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicating a likelihood of rate cuts in 2025 [2][22] - Futures for major indices showed slight changes, with S&P 500 futures at 6,802.00, up 0.75 points, and Dow Jones futures adding about 23 points [1][8] Gold Market - Gold futures traded near $4,057 per ounce, slightly down after surpassing the $4,000 mark earlier in the week, but still up over 50% year-to-date due to strong central bank demand and investor hedging amid uncertainty [3][19] - Analysts from BCA Research noted that while the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, short-term pullbacks may occur due to potential increases in real rates or a stronger dollar [18] Corporate Earnings - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) reported a 30% increase in Q3 revenue, reaching $32.47 billion, driven by high demand from AI chip manufacturers Nvidia and AMD, resulting in a 3.5% rise in TSMC shares [6] - Akero Therapeutics saw its shares surge nearly 20% following Novo Nordisk's announcement of a $4.7 billion acquisition at $54 per share, with Akero's lead drug candidate in Phase 3 trials [13][14] - PepsiCo's stock rose approximately 1% after reporting Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, with an adjusted EPS of $2.29 and revenue of $23.94 billion [17] AI and Technology Developments - Nvidia's shares gained 1% premarket after the US government approved new AI chip export licenses to the UAE, linked to a $1.4 trillion investment pledge in US projects, marking a significant diplomatic achievement for the Trump administration [7] - Investors are closely monitoring developments in AI trade policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook as the week progresses [21]

US stock markets closed at record highs on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.58 per cent to 6,753.72 and the Nasdaq Composite jumping 1.12 per cent to 23,043.38. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained nearly flat, slipping just 1.20 points to 46,601.78. The rally came after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for AI computing has surged substantially in the past six months. Nvidia shares gained 2 per cent following his comments, helping ease concerns about the sustainability of the artificia ...

Core Insights - Investors significantly increased their investments in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in September, leading to the largest monthly inflow on record, with 146 tonnes added, compared to 53 tonnes in August [2][3] - The total monetary inflow for September reached $17.3 billion, pushing assets under management (AUM) to a new high of $472.5 billion, with third-quarter inflows totaling $26 billion, the strongest ever for any quarter [3][4] North American Market - North American investors contributed the most, adding 89 tonnes of gold worth $10.6 billion in September, resulting in total holdings of 1,966 tonnes and AUM of $245.5 billion [4][5] - This marks the fourth consecutive month of inflows for North American funds, driven by ongoing trade, policy, and geopolitical risks, alongside expectations of lower yields [5] European Market - European gold ETFs experienced their third-best month of inflows in September, with 37 tonnes added, raising total holdings to 1,436 tonnes and AUM to $176.6 billion [6][7] - The UK, Switzerland, and Germany were the leading countries in this activity, with the strong gold price rally contributing to increased demand [7] Asian Market - In Asia, gold ETFs added 18 tonnes valued at $2.1 billion, increasing total holdings to 334 tonnes and AUM to $41.6 billion, driven by strong demand in China and India [8] - The inflows in Asia were attributed to favorable local currency dynamics and heightened investment demand amid weaker domestic equities and ongoing geopolitical risks [8]

Market Overview - Markets maintained momentum into Q3 2025, with the S&P 500 advancing 7.8%, driven by moderating inflation and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Dividend-paying sectors showed resilience, while cyclical industries experienced strong gains [1] Sector Performance - A rotation towards cyclical and commodity-linked stocks intensified as rate expectations shifted towards easing [2] - Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services led sector gains, while the Energy sector achieved a 6.2% gain, outperforming Real Estate, Materials, and Consumer Staples [3] Energy Sector Insights - Despite softer crude prices, strong demand for oil and gas, record U.S. LNG exports, and robust downstream margins contributed to broad-based performance, with total returns averaging mid- to high-single digits [4] - Upstream oil and gas producers saw an average gain of 5.8%, with APA Corporation leading at 34.6% due to strong production volumes and cost controls [6] - Midstream companies collectively gained 8.2%, driven by tankers like Scorpio Tankers and KNOT Offshore Partners, which saw gains over 40% [8] - The refining sector excelled, with the "Big Three" refiners generating an average return of 19.8% [10]

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - The market seems to be shrugging off the shutdown and valuation concerns [1] - Two fundamental drivers for the economy are a tremendous capex tailwind from AI and the Fed's dovish stance [2] - The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) has been below 50 for 31 months, indicating manufacturing sector contraction [2][4] - A rise above 50 in ISM manufacturing would signal a return to expansion mode, benefiting financials, small caps, and the tech trade [5] - Seasonally, Q4 sees an average rise of about 5% since 1950 [8] - Investor sentiment is muted despite a 30% rally in stocks [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed has been on hold for 9 months, providing a lifeline to the economy [2] - The Fed may need to be more dovish due to the government shutdown disrupting economic activity and weakening confidence [7][8] - Rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could boost the manufacturing sector [4] Investment Opportunities & Company Specifics - Financials are a pick due to the expectation of a dovish Fed and the potential for AI to be leveraged in the industry [11] - Financials may end up getting technology valuations, especially given blockchain [12] - Tether, valued at $500 billion or about 25 times earnings, demonstrates the cost reduction potential of building on the blockchain [13] - Tether has 300 employees, while JP Morgan has 313,000 employees [14] - Tether is valued at around $1.8 billion per employee, JP Morgan around $2.6 billion per employee [14]